MLB Prospect Report: Late Bloomers Who Look Like Stars of the Future
Major League Baseball is in an era in which even the youngest prospects don't need much time in the minor leagues before breaking into The Show.
However, there's still room for late bloomers.
Today's objective is to run through seven older, less heralded prospects who are starting to look like potential difference-makers. What they have in common is that they:
- Aren't top-100 prospects
- Are no younger than 22
- Were drafted no later than 2014
- Are now dominating in Double-A or Triple-A
- Have no MLB experience
In no particular order, let's take it away.
Ben Lively, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
1 of 7
Ben Lively's pro career started strong after the Cincinnati Reds chose him in the fourth round of the 2013 draft. He had a 0.88 ERA in 13 starts in the low minors that summer.
He then came down to earth in 2014 and way down to earth in 2015 after being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, posting a pedestrian 4.13 ERA in 25 starts for Double-A Reading. It wasn't a good sign for the then-23-year-old.
Yet hope remained.
"There were things he needed to do delivery-wise, like angling the baseball differently and doing a better job of working down in the zone," Joe Jordan, the Phillies' director of player development, told MiLB.com's Sam Dykstra in November. "He was so much better than in 2015 once that happened."
No kidding. Lively had a 2.69 ERA in 28 starts last season.
Now 25, he hasn't let up in nine starts for Triple-A LeHigh Valley in 2017. He has a 2.40 ERA (third in the International League) with a superb 6.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His stuff hasn't gotten more electric, but his deceptiveness and sharp command allow him to make the most of it.
As of now, MLB.com only ranks Lively as the Phillies' No. 24 prospect. Nonetheless, he's a candidate to help their innings-starved rotation.
Julian Merryweather, RHP, Cleveland Indians
2 of 7
Julian Merryweather is a 25-year-old who the Cleveland Indians chose out of Oklahoma Baptist University in the fifth round of the 2014 draft.
That doesn't scream "Future major league star!" But Merryweather is trying to put himself on that path.
His 6'4" frame and low-to-mid 90s heat gave him a good foundation to build on. He did so in 2016, retooling his delivery and ultimately putting up a 2.60 ERA in 24 starts for High-A Lynchburg and Double-A Akron.
"Merryweather was one [of] the more improved players in the Indians system last year, and they believe he has the ingredients to start at the highest level," read the book on him at MLB.com.
Merryweather's revolution has continued this season. Although he only had a 3.38 ERA in nine starts for Akron, he struck out 52, walked 10 and allowed only 37 hits in 50.2 innings. In his debut for Triple-A Columbus on Tuesday, he pitched eight shutout innings with eight strikeouts, no walks and four hits.
With plenty of talent and experience in their rotation, the Indians didn't figure to have any need for Merryweather if everything went well this season. But since all sorts of problems have cropped up in the first two months, Merryweather's fast rise could well lead to a big opportunity with the big club.
Tyler Mahle, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
3 of 7
Tyler Mahle is otherwise known as "that guy who pitched a perfect game in April."
And what a perfect game it was. Pitching for Double-A Pensacola, Mahle struck out eight and got all 27 outs on only 88 pitches.
"I'd say it was up there at No. 1," he said when Baseball America's Josh Norris asked him where the performance ranked among his achievements.
Mahle's No. 2 achievement might be the no-hitter he threw for High-A Daytona Beach last June. The 1.55 ERA (which ranks second in the Southern League) he has this season is an achievement in its own right.
Good stuff for a 22-year-old who was a seventh-round pick back in 2013 and who, for MLB.com, is only the Cincinnati Reds' No. 9 prospect. After sending up a red flag with a 4.92 ERA at Double-A last season, he's now making the most of what's always been a solid arsenal.
"Mahle's fastball will pan a nearly 10-mph range from 88-97 mph, while complementing it with plus command, and three quality secondary pitches," wrote Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospectus.
Sounds like a guy who could soon be in Cincinnati to help a Reds team that's badly in need of pitching.
.png?w=256)
Lucas Sims, RHP, Atlanta Braves
4 of 7
If this name sounds familiar, that's because Lucas Sims was a brand-name prospect once.
The Atlanta Braves chose Sims with the No. 21 pick back in 2012. He was a top-100 prospect by 2014. But then came a rough patch in 2015 and 2016. Although he climbed as high as Triple-A Gwinnett, he posted a 4.40 ERA across 233.2 innings.
It wasn't a stuff problem. Sims has a low-to-mid 90s fastball and an above-average curveball. As his 146 walks in those 233.2 innings proved, his problem was very much control.
Mercifully, that's changing.
Sims, 23, has only 17 walks to go with 56 strikeouts in 56 innings for Gwinnett this season. In speaking with Bill Ballew of Baseball America, Braves farm director Dave Trembley credited an improved delivery and fastball command for Sims' turnaround. The man himself seems to agree.
"It's come a long way, starting to feel really good about it," he said, per Kelsie Heneghan of MiLB.com. "Just trying to be aggressive and really just go after guys, trying to make the hitters earn their way on."
For MLB.com, Sims is only the No. 18 prospect in Atlanta's loaded system. But with the upside he's always had now being realized, that ranking is becoming obsolete.
Ryan McMahon, INF, Colorado Rockies
5 of 7
Ryan McMahon is another name that might sound familiar.
Although he was only a second-round pick in 2013, he first appeared as a top-100 prospect in 2015 and was a consensus top-100 guy going into last season.
Then, disaster.
McMahon couldn't hack it at Double-A Hartford, as he managed just a .724 OPS and 12 home runs. With a .686 OPS and just one homer, he didn't do better in the Arizona Fall League.
But with a new year has come a new version of McMahon. Now 22, he has a .926 OPS and six homers in 49 games for Hartford. A strikeout rate that finished at 30.1 percent in 2016 is down to 19.0 percent, and he isn't sacrificing power or patience to make that happen.
McMahon is also expanding his defensive versatility. He was a third baseman. Now he's also a second baseman and a first baseman. It's as if he and the Colorado Rockies saw Nolan Arenado in his way and resolved to do something about it.
McMahon only ranks as Colorado's No. 6 prospect for MLB.com. But that's quickly becoming dated and will look even more dated if he gets a shot to help out the Rockies' pennant push.
Dustin Fowler, OF, New York Yankees
6 of 7
In a New York Yankees system that contains hot shots like Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier, it's easy to lose sight of Dustin Fowler. Indeed, MLB.com ranks him as only the organization's No. 8 prospect.
There are good reasons for that. Fowler, 22, didn't set the minors afire after the Yankees chose him in the 18th round of the 2013 draft. He improved as a defender but put up only modest offensive numbers.
Fast-forward to now, and there he is with a .308/.345/.569 slash line for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
As his 5.4 walk percentage proves, Fowler still prefers to swing his bat. But his 18.9 strikeout percentage proves he's not a wild swinger, and now his offensive game contains plenty of power. With eight home runs in 45 games, he's on track to smash his career high of 12.
"With his added strength and experience and knowledge of the strike zone, we're starting to see the results of his work in concentrating to be a more disciplined hitter," said Gary Denbo, the Yankees' vice president of player development, to Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post.
Fowler is now either an important piece of the Yankees' future or a solid piece of trade bait. Either way, his breakthrough awaits.
Jacob Faria, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
7 of 7
Jacob Faria began his pro career as a 10th-round pick in the 2011 draft. He's yet to appear in any top-100 lists since then and is only rated as the Tampa Bay Rays' No. 9 prospect at MLB.com.
But at 23 years old and with 23 career starts for Triple-A Durham, Faria is neither ancient nor underdeveloped. This season, he's finally putting it all together.
Look no further than the fact he has 78 strikeouts (tops in the International League) in only 51.2 innings, a rate of 13.6 per nine innings. His excellent changeup is still a ball on a string. Meanwhile, Norris reported that a fastball that used to sit 88-91 mph is now sitting 91-93 mph.
"[Faria] worked hard, he added some muscle and he gained some weight for a little extra support system," said Durham pitching coach Kyle Snyder to Norris. "From that point forward, all we've really done is just focus on using his legs a little bit more, using his drive leg in his delivery."
Faria hasn't erased all his problems. Along with his 78 strikeouts, he's also allowed 20 walks and seven home runs in his 51.2 innings.
But alongside Chris Archer and fellow prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon, Faria looks like yet another young strikeout maestro for the Rays to build around.
Data courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and MiLB.com.
.png?w=480)
