Legit or Nah: Deciding Which MLB Playoff Hopefuls Are for Real
As we rumble toward the midpoint of May, the MLB season is getting real.
Sure, Opening Day is technically the real beginning, and, yes, we've got more than four months remaining before anything is settled.
We're far enough into this marathon, however, to answer a few early questions. Such as: Which current playoff hopefuls are for real and which aren't?
For our purposes, we'll define a playoff hopeful as any team with a .500 or better record entering play Thursday. That leaves out some clubs that will probably be factors come September, and includes a few teams that will likely fade before the trade deadline.
We had to draw the line somewhere, though, and that's where the "legit-or-nah" part comes in.
American League West
1 of 6
Houston Astros (23-11)
The Houston Astros have jumped out of the gate with a plus-40 run differential, the second-best team OPS (.786) in the American League and a pitching staff led by resurgent ace Dallas Keuchel.
Their lineup features a nice mix of veteran bats (Jose Altuve, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran) and emerging stars (Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer). At this point, they're easily the most complete team in the division.
"They should win it going away, shouldn't they?" an AL scout asked rhetorically in early April, per Bleacher Report's Danny Knobler.
Yes, they should.
Verdict: Legit
Seattle Mariners (17-17)
After a rocky April, the Seattle Mariners have climbed back to .500.
They've done it on the strength of an offense that's third in baseball with 176 runs scored and is led by the enviable core of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager, plus newcomers Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger.
The starting rotation has been decimated by injuries, with Hisashi Iwakuma joining Felix Hernandez, Drew Smyly and James Paxton on the disabled list Wednesday, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.
The fact the M's have lost four-fifths of their rotation and stayed afloat could be seen as a good sign. If they can get their arms healthy, they'll be in it till the end.
Verdict: Legit
American League Central
2 of 6
Cleveland Indians (18-15)
The Cleveland Indians rank 20th in the game with 143 runs scored and 18th with a .245 team average. Their starting pitchers rank 25th with a 4.85 ERA. In many ways, the Tribe are lucky to be three games over .500 and in first place.
The lineup is loaded with talent, however, beginning with shortstop and burgeoning superstar Francisco Lindor. The rotation figures to come around, as FanRag Sports' John Perrotto argued.
This is much the same team that streaked to Game 7 of the World Series last year. Red flags aside, they've got a real chance to do it again.
Verdict: Legit
Minnesota Twins (16-14)
The Minnesota Twins have been a great early story, keeping their heads above .500 one season removed from a 103-loss campaign.
Perennially hyped young outfielder Byron Buxton has begun to swing a hot bat, and there are reasons for optimism in the North Star State.
Drill down, however, and you'll see a minus-three run differential and a club that's sitting in the bottom third in both runs scored and team ERA.
The Twinkies could take a step forward in 2017, but a step on to the October stage is unlikely.
Verdict: Nah
Detroit Tigers (16-16)
The Detroit Tigers are 9-7 at home, 7-9 on the road and have won five of their last 10. They are, in other words, a .500 team through and through.
Can they be more? Sure. There are veterans with impressive resumes in all corners of the clubhouse.
Superstar Miguel Cabera has been limited by back and groin injuries, however, and ace Justin Verlander has wobbled. Then there's the bullpen, which ranks dead last with a 5.91 ERA.
The Tigers have experience on their side and could squeeze one more run out of this aging roster. Without the financial flexibility or minor league pieces to swing an impact deal at the deadline, though, they're treading perilously close to "nah" territory.
Verdict: Legit...barely
American League East
3 of 6
New York Yankees (21-10)
The Baby Bronx Bombers are growing up before our eyes, powered by right fielder Aaron Judge and his 13 home runs.
Add the return of catcher Gary Sanchez from a biceps injury and contributions from veterans such as Starlin Castro and Jacoby Ellsbury, and the Yanks are rolling with the best winning percentage in baseball.
New York could seek to add a starter at the deadline to fortify a rotation that's shaky at the back end. It's also possible some of these young hitters could slump and fade as summer wears on.
Clearly, though, this "rebuild" is off the ground.
Verdict: Legit
Baltimore Orioles (22-11)
The Baltimore Orioles have thump in their lineup, but so far the pitching has stood out.
The O's rank 12th in the game in team ERA and have gotten strong early returns from starters Dylan Bundy and Wade Miley. Chris Tillman, meanwhile, tossed five scoreless innings in his return from the disabled list May 6.
Star closer Zach Britton could miss two months with a forearm injury, per MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli, which is a major blow.
If Baltimore can keep pitching and the bats heat up, though, a return to the postseason is within reach.
Verdict: Legit
Boston Red Sox (17-16)
The prohibitive preseason favorites in the East, the Boston Red Sox have stumbled a bit in the early going.
Left-hander David Price remains on the shelf, and the offense is tied for 17th with 149 runs scored.
That said, Boston is above .500 and boasts one of the best young offensive cores in baseball behind 2016 AL MVP runner-up Mookie Betts and early AL Rookie of the Year front-runner Andrew Benintendi.
The Red Sox aren't going to dominate wire to wire, but they're obviously a factor in one of baseball noisiest divisions.
Verdict: Legit
.png?w=256)
National League West
4 of 6
Colorado Rockies (22-13)
The Colorado Rockies won 75 games last season and were a fringe wild-card contender into September.
They've taken a leap forward in 2017 thanks to a typically solid offense that's tied for ninth in baseball with 166 runs scored. More to the point, they've proved they can pitch, especially away from Coors Field.
In fact, the Rockies' 3.23 road ERA is tops in either league. Pause for a moment and let that sink in.
Credit new manager and former MLB hurler Bud Black and an excellent bullpen. Things could get even better when ace Jon Gray returns from a broken foot.
Every year, the conundrum for Colorado is if the arms can support the bats. This season, improbably, it could be the other way around.
Verdict: Legit
Los Angeles Dodgers (20-14)
After a sluggish start, the Los Angeles Dodgers have kicked into gear, thanks in part to a historic power binge by top position prospect Cody Bellinger.
"It's amazing," ace Clayton Kershaw said of Bellinger, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. "Hitting home runs, laying down bunts for hits when they shift against him, playing defense—he's just an all-around great baseball player."
The Dodgers have enough guys who fit that description—including Kershaw himself—to challenge for a fifth straight division title.
Verdict: Legit
Arizona Diamondbacks (19-16)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have faded a little after a scalding start, losing six of their last 10 and dropping to third place.
They still boast a plus-23 run differential, however, along with key comeback seasons from first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, center fielder A.J. Pollock and right-hander Zack Greinke.
Nearly everything went wrong for the D-backs in 2016. Now, enough is going right to make them bona fide playoff hopefuls.
Verdict: Legit
National League Central
5 of 6
St. Louis Cardinals (19-14)
The St. Louis Cardinals rank exactly in the middle of the pack in runs scored. Still, they've risen to the top of the topsy-turvy NL Central thanks to a starting rotation that owns the second-best ERA in the Senior Circuit, and that's with Adam Wainwright and his ugly 6.37 mark.
Plus, they're the Cardinals. They haven't finished with a losing record in a decade. The defending champions are coming at some point (more on that in a moment), but count out the Cards at your peril.
Verdict: Legit
Cincinnati Reds (18-15)
How can you not love the plucky Cincinnati Reds?
A consensus pick to dwell in the division cellar and be a seller at the deadline, the Reds have ripped off eight wins in their last 10 games, own a plus-18 run differential and are simply refusing to go away.
Can it last? Probably not. The Reds have played great defense and scored in bunches, but their starting rotation is dead last in the game with a 5.29 ERA.
Meanwhile, as Cliff Corcoran of Sports on Earth pointed out, the offense "has been driven to a large degree by hot starts from veteran shortstop Zack Cozart (.350/.442/.580) and 25-year-old third baseman Eugenio Suarez (.316/.395/.579), neither of whom is likely to keep up that pace, particularly Cozart, who is hitting .423 on balls in play."
In other words, Cincinnati fans: Enjoy it while it lasts.
Verdict: Nah
Milwaukee Brewers (18-16)
Most of the things we just said about the Reds also apply to the Milwaukee Brewers, who rank second in the NL in runs scored but own a pedestrian 4.22 team ERA.
The best story on the Brew Crew has been journeyman Eric Thames, who returned from a stint in the Korean league and has pounded 13 home runs in 31 games.
Thames has cooled off, hitting just two homers since April 26. Expect the Brewers to do the same.
Verdict: Nah
Chicago Cubs (17-17)
Take a deep breath, Chicago Cubs fans. You've still got the most versatile and talented roster in baseball, littered with young stars. You've got that shiny trophy, and Bill Murray is around somewhere.
On the other hand, what gives?
Six months after busting professional sports' most notorious title drought, the Cubbies are mired at .500, looking up at teams they were supposed to be feasting on.
"I sense sleep deprivation more than anything," manager Joe Maddon said, per ESPN.com's Jesse Rogers. "Sleep deprivation has a lot to do with it. Right from the beginning of the year our schedule has been awkward. No one has had a chance to settle in."
OK, that's one theory. Maybe he's right. Perhaps all Kris Bryant and company need are a few winks and they'll be off to the races.
In any event, after watching this team do what it did last year and return mostly intact, the North Side faithful have to wait at least another month before any real angst creeps in.
Verdict: Legit
National League East
6 of 6
Washington Nationals (22-12)
It's lonely at the top for the Washington Nationals, the only team in the NL East with a winning record.
Losing outfielder Adam Eaton to a busted ACL hurts, but the Nats still have Bryce Harper leading baseball's highest-scoring offense while Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez front the rotation.
The lack of an established closer is the club's biggest weakness, but that can be addressed at the deadline.
Barring a whole bunch more injuries, Washington looks like a lock to win the division and take another crack at advancing past the division series.
Verdict: Legit
All statistics current as of Wednesday and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
.png?w=480)
