Predicting Surprise Rookie Starters from 2017 NFL Draft

Every NFL fan thinks his or her favorite team's first-round pick will be an immediate starter. Some of them may be disappointed. But fear not, such players can also be found outside of the first round. 

Scheme fit and opportunity are important for young football players, and that's the reason a lot of them fall out of favor in the league. With that in mind, we'll look at some players who aren't being projected to start by most of the national media who could make an early run at playing time as rookies.

We'll focus on players who were drafted in the third round or later, mid-round picks, and discuss why their landing spot is so favorable to early success, or at least early playing time, in their specific situations. In some situations, the deciding factor is a void of playing time returning to the team. In other situations, summer contract decisions can be made based on these mid-round picks' preseason efforts.

Larry Ogunjobi, DL, Cleveland Browns

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Heading into the draft, the Cleveland Browns had the worst line-of-scrimmage defenders in football. With the addition of Myles Garrett of Texas A&M, an edge defender, the perception of the box-defender unit of the team was improved.

Quietly though, they might have also added their starting three-technique in Charlotte's Larry Ogunjobi in the third round of the draft. Danny Shelton, a former first-round pick, has the nose tackle job locked in right now, but the only competition that Ogunjobi has to beat out for a shot as an undertackle is Gabe Wright and Xavier Cooper, two mid-draft selections from a previous staff that haven't hit, and Caleb Brantley, a sixth-round pick who is accused of battery and may get released before training camp. 

Ogunjobi had 29 tackles for a loss over the last two years as a smaller interior player for a startup program. Playing him next to someone like Shelton, who can occupy bodies and free him up, and opposite of Garrett, who can force a quarterback up in the pocket, could give the Browns an early opportunity to get him on the field. He's now the third or fourth focus on the line of scrimmage, which should ease his mid-major-to-NFL transition.

Pat Elflein, IOL, Minnesota Vikings

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According to Spotrac's account of free agency, only five centers league-wide switched rosters before April's draft. Of those five centers, only two of them are among the top 95 highest-paid offensive linemen in football, based on their average salary.

If you can't crack a list of the top 95 players at your position group, which features almost exclusively veterans, it's going to be hard to make the case that you're a starting-caliber player. The Minnesota Vikings' slated starter on Ourlads is Joe Berger, a soon-to-be 35-year-old.

Berger is on a one-year deal worth just north of $2 million, making him the 110th-best-paid offensive lineman in football. Red flag.

Minnesota drafted the second center in the draft class in Ohio State's Pat Elflein in the third round. Ethan Pocic of LSU was drafted a round before, but he might project to either tackle or guard for the Seattle Seahawks. Elflein has experience at both guard and center, and was an All-American center in his first year at the position in 2016.

You can make the case that Elflein was one of the three most sought-after centers in football this offseason, even if he was drafted 70th overall. His beating a player on a one-year deal making low-end veteran money would not be shocking at all.

Tim Williams, EDGE, Baltimore Ravens

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According to the Baltimore Ravens' official roster, here are their outside linebackers:

• Terrell Suggs: eight sacks in 2016
• Matt Judon: four sacks in 2016
• Za'Darius Smith: one sack in 2016
• Brennen Beyer: no sacks in 2016
• Tyus Bowser: 2017 second-round pick
• Tim Williams: 2017 third-round pick

They return eight sacks from Suggs, who will turn 35 in October and had biceps surgery immediately after the 2016 season, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. He may need to be on a pitch count. The rest of the outside linebacker group had five sacks last year, which is less than a number two pass-rushers should post by themselves.

Baltimore might be a place where we see two rookie starters at pass-rushing positions, or at least a three-way split of time, with Bowser and Williams being added to the mix. Bowser played for Houston in a wide-open American Athletic Conference where he often had to defend slot receivers instead of rushing the passer in spread looks.

Williams is quietly the easiest projection to a No. 2 pass-rusher on the team heading into the summer. As a part-time player, Williams recorded 18.5 sacks over the last two seasons coming off the bench for Alabama. If the team needs a designated pass-rusher, Williams may be the player best equipped for the position out of anyone in the outside linebackers room in Baltimore.

Shaquill Griffin, DB, Seattle Seahawks

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Let's play a game. If there is some sort of turmoil in Seattle, be it from a locker room or salary-cap perspective, about cornerback Richard Sherman's future with the Seahawks, couldn't they replace him with Shaquill Griffin? 

Be it Brandon Browner or Byron Maxwell, they seem to think that they can plug-and-play smooth, long cornerbacks in their Cover 3-heavy scheme, and they've mostly been right. When you look at Griffin's combine measurables, per NFLDraftScout.com, you begin to wonder if they aren't planning to start him immediately.

Name	Height	40 Time	3 Cone
Shaquill Griffin	5116	4.38	6.87
Richard Sherman	6025	4.60	6.82
Byron Maxwell	6002	4.52	7.12
Brandon Browner	6034	4.68	7.20

What he may lack in about a half-inch compared to Maxwell is made up for in athleticism. On top of that, only one player in FBS last year posted more interceptions and an as good or better average pass deflections per game than Griffin: Tedric Thompson of Colorado, another Seahawks pickup.

The team clearly valued ball skills in this draft. Griffin has the production there to stick. In terms of size, he has the athleticism to stick. Even if Sherman isn't moved this season, Griffin gives the Seahawks flexibility to entertain the thought in 2018 and beyond.

Trey Hendrickson, EDGE, New Orleans Saints

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These are the veteran defensive ends listed on the New Orleans Saints' official roster:

• Cameron Jordan: 7.5 sacks in 2016
• Alex Okafor: 3.5 sacks in 2016 with the Arizona Cardinals
• Darryl Tapp: 0.5 sacks in 2016

That's it. If the season started before the draft, the Saints would have either been starting a 3.5-sack player in his first year in the system or Tapp, who couldn't even register a full sack in a three-man rotation with Jordan and Paul Kruger, who the team let walk this offseason.

They needed a starting pass-rusher in the draft, but they waited until the third round to add Trey Hendrickson of Florida Atlantic. Hendrickson recorded 23 sacks and 30 tackles for a loss in his last two years of mid-major football, was named the Most Outstanding Defensive Player of the East-West Shrine game and posted a 4.65-second 40-yard dash and a 7.03-second three-cone drill at the combine.

It's not often that a mid-major pass-rusher gets a crack at a starting gig as a rookie, but Hendrickson's likely competition is two below-average veterans and Al-Quadin Muhammad, a 2017 sixth-round pick who hasn't played in a football game in over 16 months.

In an offseason when teams threw out wild money for mid- to low-level pass-rushers, Okafor's one-year, $2 million deal and Tapp's one-year, $1 million deal tell you all you need to know about how the Saints value those two defenders.

Julie'n Davenport, OT, Houston Texans

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Teams tell on themselves. Any coach or front office member in the league will say nice things when hot microphones are around, but how they pay their players will tell you what they think of their talents.

The biggest hole the Houston Texans needed to fill, which caused a quick end to their 2016 playoff run, was the quarterback position. With that being said, right tackle was right behind quarterback, and their contract situations at bookend confirm that.

Derek Newton, in terms of veterans on the roster, is the favorite to start at right tackle this year, but he has failed to live up to his contract worth $5.3 million per year, which is just average tackle money in 2017. The contract is built in a way that the team could save $14.25 million over the next three years if they release him this year.

The team tipped its hand of wanting to replace Newton when it drafted Bucknell tackle Julie'n Davenport, a Senior Bowl and combine invite, in the fourth round. Close to 6'7" with a 7.57-second three-cone and a 4.69-second short shuttle, Davenport is an incredible athlete, even if he's raw.

If he can make big strides in training camp, Davenport could start at right tackle this year. Remember, the Texans parted ways with a future second-round pick for the Cleveland Browns to eat a part of the Brock Osweiler contract, just for Houston to be the only franchise in the NFL to not sign an outside free agent in 2017. They want to free up future cap space, and kicking Newton's contract to the curb sooner rather than later will help them in that effort.

Ryan Switzer, WR, Dallas Cowboys

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In the fourth round of the draft, the Dallas Cowboys brought in former North Carolina receiver Ryan Switzer. He has a lip tattoo that says "believe."

At the combine, Switzer measured in at 5'8" and change, but that didn't stop him from totaling over 4,000 total yards in college and 28 touchdowns. If that doesn't sound like a starting return specialist and/or a starting slot receiver to you, I don't know what does.

Cole Beasley, another undersized receiver in Dallas who plays in the slot, is in the third year of a four-year deal, but the team has an escape plan in the contract that could save it $2.5 million in 2017 and $6.8 million over the next two years if it releases Beasley sometime this preseason.

Account for Switzer at least getting into the conversation for dethroning Beasley this offseason, as it's not normal to roster two slot-only receivers. Switzer's potential to return kicks and punts, something Beasley only did four times in all of 2016, could be what keeps Beasley out of the rotation in Dallas.

Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers

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The Green Bay Packers are going to go running back by committee this year. Here's a look at what the rushing totals in Green Bay looked like in 2016:

• Ty Montgomery: 77 carries
• Eddie Lacy: 71 carries (signed with the Seattle Seahawks this offseason)
• Aaron Rodgers: 67 carries (listed as a quarterback)
• James Starks: 63 carries (not retained this offseason)
• Aaron Ripkowski: 34 carries (listed as a fullback)
• Christine Michael: 31 carries (released post-draft)
• Randall Cobb: 10 carries (listed as a receiver)
• Don Jackson: 10 carries (released post-draft)
• Knile Davis: five carries (released in October)
• Brett Hundley: three carries (listed as a quarterback)
• Jeff Janis: two carries (listed as a receiver)
• Joe Kerridge: one carry (listed as a fullback)

The Packers only bring back 77 carries from 2016 by a listed running back, and they all come from Montgomery, who was converted to the position midseason. Green Bay made an effort to improve in that room in this past draft by taking three Day 3 running backs.

Those players are BYU's Jamaal Williams, who was drafted in the fourth round, UTEP's Aaron Jones, who was drafted in the fifth round, and Utah State's Devante Mays, who was drafted in the seventh round. If the Packers want the flexibility to move Montgomery back to receiver, where they haven't been strong in recent years, then Jones could be the third-down back with Williams taking on a bulk of the carries.

Either way, Montgomery won't receive more than 60 percent of the carries as a former receiver in his second year at the position, and Williams is the new addition back that the team has invested the most in this offseason. Expect summer rumors about him playing himself into a starting role.