Buying or Selling Chicago Cubs' 5 Most Surprising April Stars
The Chicago Cubs face an uphill battle as they look to repeat as World Series champions, but it's not for a lack of talent—it's just not an easy feat to accomplish.
They haven't gotten off to the scorching-hot start they did a year ago, but there's nothing wrong with a 12-9 record and a plus-20 run differential that ranks fourth in the majors.
Even on a roster filled with established veteran stars and budding young superstars, there has still been a handful of unexpectedly strong starts.
Ahead we'll dive a bit deeper into five early standouts and decide whether to buy or sell their April performances.
CF Albert Almora Jr.
1 of 5
2017 Stats
42 PA, .270/.341/.432, 3 2B, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 5 R, 0.3 WAR
Overview
The offseason signing of Jon Jay would seem to suggest otherwise, but the Cubs would love nothing more than for Albert Almora Jr. to force his way into everyday playing time in center field.
The 23-year-old is already considered a Gold Glove-caliber defender after posting 3 DRS and a 23.7 UZR/150 over 237 defensive innings as a rookie and he's continued to shine defensively.
"He's the real deal," one National League scout told Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. "He'll win a Gold Glove soon enough."
His offensive game, on the other hand, was far from a sure thing after he walked just five times in 117 plate appearances last season for a middling .308 on-base percentage.
The former first-round pick has already taken four free passes in 42 plate appearances this year as his on-base percentage has climbed to .341. If he keeps that up, he has enough gap power to be an above-average contributor at the plate in support of his elite defense.
Buy or Sell: Buy
It took Almora a little longer to develop than some of the team's other young standouts, but there's a reason the Cubs scooped him up with the No. 6 pick in the 2012 draft. He's more than capable of emerging as a Kevin Pillar-type with a bit more on-base ability.
SP Brett Anderson
2 of 5
2017 Stats
4 GS, 2-0, 3.54 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 11 BB, 14 K, 20.1 IP, 0.1 WAR
Overview
If Brett Anderson can give the Cubs something like 20 starts with a sub-4.00 ERA, he'll be well-worth the incentive-laden one-year, $3.5 million deal he signed during the offseason.
The 29-year-old has topped 150 innings just twice in his career while dealing with a laundry list of injuries, and he's already surpassed the 11.1 innings he threw a year ago.
However, the question here is whether his strong start is the real deal, not whether he'll live up to his contract.
While his overall numbers are solid, his performance so far has been a mixed bag.
Anderson had a 0.84 ERA through two starts, but he failed to complete six innings in either of them. Then he was shelled for eight hits and six earned runs in 3.2 innings of work his third time out.
The lefty finally turned in a quality start on his last time out, but he walked six batters in his six innings of work, so it wasn't a pretty outing by any means.
Buy or Sell: Buy
The Cubs don't need Anderson to be anything more than a serviceable No. 5 starter, and the questions surrounding him are still related more to health than performance. The walks last start were an anomaly, and he's more than capable of maintaining a 3.50 ERA going forward with a good defense behind him.
RP Carl Edwards Jr.
3 of 5
2017 Stats
9 G, 2 HLD, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 3 BB, 8 K, 8.0 IP, 0.5 WAR
Overview
In terms of pure stuff, Carl Edwards Jr. is as good as anyone in a stocked Cubs bullpen.
Despite a rail-thin 6'3", 170-pound frame he can dial his fastball up into the upper 90s and has averaged 95.0 mph with it on the season, backing it with a lethal curveball that opposing hitters have yet to record a hit against, per Brooks Baseball.
"He can get anybody out. He's got that kind of stuff," manager Joe Maddon said, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.
The Cubs have shuffled things around a bit so far ahead of closer Wade Davis, but don't be surprised if Edwards eventually settles in as the primary eighth-inning option.
The 25-year-old saw plenty of high-leverage action down the stretch and into the postseason last year. Going forward, he might wind up being the long-term closer since Davis is set to reach free agency next winter.
Edwards has allowed just one hit so far this season for an .043 opponent's batting average, good for third-best among pitchers with at least eight innings of work.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Edwards' days as a starter are clearly over, and it's probably for the best as his stuff plays up in the bullpen and any durability questions are no longer an issue. He has the combination of stuff and poise to be a weapon in the late innings for years to come.
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C Miguel Montero
4 of 5
2017 Stats
31 PA, .379/.419/.517, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 5 R, 0.2 WAR
Overview
Not only is Miguel Montero the fourth-highest paid player on the Cubs but his $14.4 million salary actually checks in as the 11th-highest figure among Chicago's four major sports, according to Crain's Chicago Business.
The 33-year-old is no longer the All-Star-caliber player and middle-of-the-order run producer he was during his prime with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but he's proving to still have plenty left in the tank.
Since starting the season 0-for-11, he's gone 11-for-18 with two extra-base hits in his last six games, including a pair of three-hit games.
After complaining about his playing time last October, it sounds like the 33-year-old is now more accepting of his role as the backup and mentor to budding star Willson Contreras.
"If that's the case to be benched for a guy like him, I'm OK with it," Montero told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. "Because he has what it takes to be an everyday guy and an All-Star."
Montero won't overtake Contreras as the starting catcher even if he continues to rake, but he remains an important piece of the puzzle and his production this season has been a pleasant surprise.
Buy or Sell: Sell
Montero isn't going to maintain a .500 BABIP all season, so expect him to crash back to Earth at some point. He doesn't get cheated at the plate, though, and could still be a double-digit home run threat even in limited action.
RF Jason Heyward
5 of 5
2017 Stats
81 PA, .284/.346/.432, 1 3B, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 9 R, 0.9 WAR
Overview
So far, so good for Jason Heyward 2.0.
The 27-year-old set to work early this spring completely retooling his swing after he hit a dismal .230/.306/.325 in the first year of his massive eight-year, $184 million deal.
The early returns have been impressive as he leads the team in batting average (.284) and RBI (16) to go along with his usual stellar defense in the outfield while bouncing between right and center field.
"While it's amazing to watch him have the wherewithal to make the adjustments, it's not like we didn't expect this," hitting coach John Mallee told Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com.
Is his hot start sustainable, though?
His .298 BABIP is roughly league average, so he hasn't been overly lucky, and he's significantly reduced his soft contact rate from 27.0 to 21.7 percent. We're seeing fewer weak groundballs rolled over to the right side and more driving the ball.
It remains to be seen if pitchers will find a way to exploit his more aggressive approach, as his 5.9 percent walk rate is down considerably from his 10.5 percent career mark.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Heyward hit .293/.359/.439 in his first and only season with the St. Louis Cardinals before signing with the Cubs. As long as he doesn't fall back into the bad habits that plagued him a year ago, there's no reason he can't put up a similar line here in 2017.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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