2017 NFL Draft: Bold Moves That Could Blow Up Latest Mock Drafts
At this point, we know what's going to happen during the first round of the 2017 NFL draft on April 27.
Hundreds of mock drafts have given us a can't-miss blueprint for how the festivities will kick off in Philadelphia. Thousands, even. It's not like an early trade could blow the majority of those mocks to bits.
OK, so we probably know what's going to happen during the first round. After all, it's not like a player could drop unexpectedly a la Laremy Tunsil a year ago—a plummet that affects every pick before that free-faller finally finds a home.
OK, so we maybe, sort of, kind of know how the first round will play out.
The thing is, while mock drafts are fun to read (and write), any number of plausible occurrences could leave most of those mocks in ruins.
Happenings just like these.
Trade(s) at the Top
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If there's a glaring flaw in mock drafts, it's that the majority of them do not account for trades.
In this era of lower-end rookie deals, teams are more willing than ever to mortgage their futures to move up and grab the player they want. Last year, the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns dealt the top two picks, respectively, to the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles.
It isn't a matter of if there will be a trade in the first round. It's just a matter of how many and how early.
There's plenty of reason to believe we won't have to wait long. The top three teams in the 2017 draft—the Browns, San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears—each have holes all over their respective rosters and could be amenable to moving back to stockpile picks.
The Browns have already shown they're willing to do so. Peter King of The MMQB recently reported San Francisco and Chicago are both "eager" to move down, as are the New York Jets at No. 6.
They aren't alone. The Jacksonville Jaguars (at No. 4) have poured a ton of free-agent money into their defense, and with this year's draft class top-heavy on that side of the ball, it isn't hard to imagine them sliding back. Ditto for the Tennessee Titans at No. 5, who have also shown a recent willingness to back up on draft day.
There's a fly in the ointment, though. Aside from the Titans and perhaps the Jaguars, those teams near the top are also among the most desperate in the NFL at quarterback. Their willingness to trade down is a testament to how underwhelming this year's quarterback class is.
And it typically takes quarterbacks to spur these kinds of deals.
However, if the Rams and Eagles can talk themselves into selling their souls for Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, some team can just as easily do so for the likes of North Carolina's Mitchell Trubisky or Clemson's Deshaun Watson.
It won't be an upset if a trade like this happens. It will be an upset if it doesn't.
Passing on Myles Garrett at No. 1 Overall
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For Cleveland Browns fans, the days leading up to the NFL draft are filled with equal parts hope and dread.
For the fourth time since 2012, the Browns have multiple picks in Round 1. But the team has also turned squandering those picks into a perverse art form in recent years (see: Gilbert, Justin and Manziel, Johnny).
This year, the Browns pick first overall and at 12, too. If recent scuttlebutt is to be believed, the Browns are again on the cusp of shooting themselves in the foot.
ESPN's Adam Schefter recently tweeted that the Browns aren't yet sold on Texas A&M edge-rusher Myles Garrett, who has long been considered the presumptive top pick in this year's draft.
"Cleveland has not made up its mind at No. 1, per source,'' Schefter said. "Split opinions. Some like Myles Garrett, some like Mitchell Trubisky. We will see.''
Other teams aren't buying Cleveland's supposed waffling. As one executive told Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot, "Garrett is head and shoulders above Trubisky. It's not even close.''
Garrett told ESPN The Magazine's Sam Alipour that if the Browns pass on him, he intends to make them regret it: "...If you don't draft me No. 1, I will punish your team for the next 10 to 12 years. I'll knock your QB out of the game every time we play you, and I'll have to kick the hell out of No. 1, whoever it is."
Sanity will likely prevail and the Browns should still make Garrett the No. 1 pick. But you can't underestimate their ability to do something stupid. Or how fast 49ers general manager John Lynch would sprint to the stage to take Garrett at No. 2 if Cleveland passes.
Garoppolooza
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Yes, more Browns drama. There isn't a team in the NFL better equipped to wreak havoc on mock drafts this year than Cleveland.
With a bushel of picks over the first two days of the draft and a yawning abyss at quarterback, rumors have lingered for months that the Browns could take a run at contract-year backup Jimmy Garoppolo of the New England Patriots.
However, according to Mike Garafolo of NFL Network, New England's asking price is steep:
"No one really knows quite what that price is, but someone somewhat connected to the situation said it's probably going to have to be a first-round pick this year and then a first-round pick again next year. ... If it's a first-round pick this year, say, I don't know, No. 12 overall. And a little sweetener, not a first-round pick, but something else. Could that start things going? Possibly it could.
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The Browns aren't likely to part with multiple first-round picks to land a passer with all of two career starts. Nor should they. But as draft day nears, the Patriots might be more willing to accept a lower offer.
New England team is all-in on winning now, and it has no first-round pick in the 2017 draft after a flurry of wheeling and dealing. Additionally, fitting a big contract or franchise tag for Garoppolo under the cap in 2018 would fall somewhere between problematic and impossible.
A Garoppolo trade isn't likely, but given the Pats' offseason aggressiveness to date, it can't be ruled out.
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Make Like Tom Petty
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"Cuz' I'm free....free fallin.'"
Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil, who looked like candidate to go No. 1 last year before the Rams and Eagles traded up, wound up falling all the way to No. 13. A similar draft-day slide isn't likely this time around, barring another video surfacing of a prospect smoking something through a gas mask.
But someone expected to be as a high selection could always drop for another reason.
Will Brinson of CBS Sports projects Alabama's Jonathan Allen as a top-five selection. But the defensive tackle also has a pair of surgically repaired shoulders.
Red flag!
Brinson's colleague, Rob Rang, believes Florida State running back Dalvin Cook will be drafted inside the top 20. But as Bleacher Report's Mike Tanier pointed out, Cook also has a history of off-field issues.
Red flag!
Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer is, well, a quarterback. One who was once believed to be a first-round lock. But as Kyle Odegard of the Arizona Cardinals' website relayed, Kizer's own college coach isn't sure he's ready for the NFL.
Red flag!
If one (or more) of these players drop, it would set off a chain reaction of falling dominoes that could reverberate across the first round.
Surprise Surgers
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There's a flip side to the first-round flounder. If one player falls, another has to take that spot.
That's especially true outside of the top 20. At the back end of the first round, mock drafts are exceptionally speculative. "Surprise" picks which aren't all that surprising are a mortal lock.
More often than not, first-round mock drafts have excluded Colorado cornerback Chidobe Awuzie. But the NFL must think the 6'0", 202-pounder has a decent chance to prove those mock drafters wrong, as it invited him to sit in the green room on the draft's first night.
Ohio State's Curtis Samuel is a 5'11", 196-pound scat back who is making the switch to wide receiver in the pros. A scout told Bleacher Report NFL draft lead writer Matt Miller that Samuel's perceived status as a Day 2 pick could be subject to change as well.
"Don't be surprised if Samuel goes ahead of Dalvin Cook," the scout said.
Youngstown State edge-rusher Derek Rivers is hardly a household name. But after starring for the Penguins and testing off the charts in Indianapolis at the scouting combine, Bleacher Report's Charles McDonald suggested on the The Ringer NFL Show that Rivers could be Round 1's biggest stunner.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see Derek Rivers go in like the top 40 or even slide into the back half of the first round, just because he has all of the things you look for except for the brand name from the school," McDonald said.
Analysts will undoubtedly deem certain picks as reaches, just as the Dallas Cowboys' selection of Travis Frederick at No. 31 was perceived in 2013. Four years later, Frederick is arguably the NFL's best center.
No one's panning that pick anymore.
Drawn and Quarter(back)ed
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If there's one overriding truth about the first round of the NFL draft, it's this: As go the quarterbacks, so goes the rest of the round. Everything else orbits around them.
We saw it last year, when signal-callers went No. 1 and No. 2 for the second straight season. North Carolina quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who's widely viewed as the top prospect at the position this year, could be the big winner on April 27.
In his latest mock draft, B/R's Matt Miller has Trubisky coming off the board at No. 10 overall to the Buffalo Bills. He predicted three quarterbacks in total (Trubisky, Clemson's Deshaun Watson and Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes) will be drafted on Day 1. However, Miller acknowledged as many as five passers could be drafted in the first round.
That uncertainty could portend all sorts of mayhem.
If the Browns do select Garrett, can the 49ers resist the urge to take a quarterback at No. 2? Or will they, as Brinson predicted, grab Trubisky second overall? If they don't, will a New York Jets team in similar bind at the position pass on him at No. 6?
What about teams outside of the top 10 with a need at the position? If this year's top quarterbacks slide, the Arizona Cardinals (No. 13) or Houston Texans (No. 25) could be tempted to move up and take advantage.
Some team could always diverge from conventional draftnik wisdom, too. Watson has a much more impressive collegiate resume than Trubisky, including a pair of College Football Playoff title game appearances. Mahomes threw for approximately all of the yards last year for the Red Raiders.
Make no mistake: Even in a "down" year for the position, quarterbacks are the engine that will drive the first round of the 2017 NFL draft. They might just leave a pile of tattered mock drafts in the dust.
Tackle Fever
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Most years, offensive tackles abound in the top half of the first round. Last year, four such players were selected in the first 16 picks.
In his latest mock draft, ESPN's Todd McShay has zero offensive tackles being picked in first half of the first round this year. McShay's first tackle (Utah's Garrett Bolles) comes off the board at No. 19. For NFL.com's Bucky Brooks, the first tackle (Wisconsin's Ryan Ramczyk) goes one pick later.
This isn't to say it's a terrible class of tackles. Bolles likely has the most upside of the bunch. Ramczyk continues a long tradition of Badgers linemen in the NFL. And Alabama's Cam Robinson might be the most pro-ready of this year's crop at the position.
But there isn't a Joe Thomas in this year's group. As NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, no tackle in the class of 2017 is a sure bet as a plus starter on the left side of the line:
"There is a five-star tackle with a winning pedigree in Alabama's Cam Robinson, but he has issues that might be difficult to coach out of him. Wisconsin's Ryan Ramczyk is the safest of the tackles, but it seems teams believe he'll have to move to right tackle. Did I mention that Ramczyk has only one year of major college football experience? Garett Bolles from Utah fits in the same boat. Bolles is undersized and will turn 25 during camp. He also has only a year of major college football under his belt. This class is hardly can't-miss.
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And yet, it's difficult to believe none of those big men will creep into the top 15. Perhaps even higher.
It's a matter of supply and demand. Tackle is annually one of the most coveted positions in the NFL. The massive contracts handed out to middling tackles in free agency this year speaks to how thirsty teams are to get better up front.
One of those teams will talk themselves into believing one of those players can maximize their potential with the proper tutelage. Maybe it will be the Carolina Panthers. Perhaps the Indianapolis Colts.
Regardless, a tackle is going to be drafted earlier than most draftniks think.
Unless, that is...
Lighting the Lamp
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...Some savvy NFL club goes against the perception that guards don't carry the same weight on draft day as offensive tackles.
This year's top guard prospect isn't even a guard yet. Forrest Lamp of Western Kentucky is a four-year starter at left tackle for the Hilltoppers who Zierlein compared to perennial Pro Bowler Zach Martin of the Dallas Cowboys. One AFC executive told Zierlein that while this year's tackle class leaves something to be desired, he has little doubt Lamp has trips to Honolulu in his future.
"He's the real deal," the executive said. "If he can snap, you could get away with playing him all up and down the line. Great feet, strong, smart."
Pop in tape of the 6'4", 309-pounder and it doesn't take long to see why most draftniks consider Lamp to be the No. 1 overall offensive lineman in the class of 2017. Strength, quickness, agility, a nice mean streak—Lamp has it all. And yet, of the four latest mock drafts at NFL.com, only one has him being selected inside the top 20 picks.
It's not as if the devaluation of the position is a new phenomenon. In each of the last two drafts, a guard didn't come off the board until pick No. 28.
Back in 2014, however, a guard snuck his way into the first half of Round 1. A guard who has since gone to three Pro Bowls and was named a first-team All-Pro twice. A guard who might just inspire an NFL club to roll the dice on Lamp following suit.
That guard is Zack Martin of the Dallas Cowboys—the same guy Zierlein compared Lamp to.
Cornering the Market
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There's little argument that the class of '17 is deep and talented at cornerback. However, it's becoming increasingly unclear who the top player is at the position.
In the past several weeks, conventional wisdom suggested Ohio State's Marshon Lattimore would be the first player taken at his position. However, according to Peter King of The MMQB, concerns about the 6'0", 193-pounder's hamstrings might be about to make a multitude of mocks moot.
"Strange as it may seem to draft-board nerds, some in the NFL think Lattimore is too much of an injury risk to take him very high," King wrote. "'I'd take [Gareon] Conley,' the other OSU corner slated to go fairly high, one club official said. 'More reliable.'"
If Lattimore isn't the first corner taken, things could get interesting quickly. Maybe it will be Conley, who seemed like Ohio State's best cornerback before Lattimore exploded onto the scene in 2016. Or Alabama's Marlon Humphrey, the latest in a long line of Crimson Tide cornerbacks angling to be first-round picks.
That's the thing. The only real consensus that existed among the so-called draft-board nerds was that Lattimore was the top dog. The votes for second fiddle are all over the place.
That isn't the only mayhem that could ensue in the secondary, either. Lattimore wasn't just considered the No. 1 cornerback. He was also the only cornerback more or less thought to be a lock to go inside the top 10.
If Lattimore isn't the top guy, it isn't just a matter of who. It's also a matter of when that first cornerback will taken, not to mention who will fill the void if they drop.
Which Wideout Is Which?
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Like the cornerback position, this year's batch of wide receiver talent is deep and talented. And just like at cornerback, there might be a shakeup in store ahead of the festivities in Philadelphia.
The top two wideouts look to be set, with Mike Williams of Clemson and Washington scorcher John Ross expected to be drafted in that order. However, the third-best prospect at the position has seen his stock take a hit of late.
Not too long ago, some draftniks considered Western Michigan's Corey Davis the best of the bunch. Now, as Emily Kaplan of The MMQB reported, some wonder if the 6'3", 209 pounder will fall from the first round altogether after he didn't work out at all during the predraft process.
"Corey Davis is a litmus test for the 'trust the tape' crowd," one scout told Kaplan. "You look at his tape and I think everyone agrees he's a first-round grade, but you'll see how important the 40 time is for some. I think it varies from team to team."
These grumblings could be an example of the typical predraft disinformation campaign. A team with its eyes on Davis may be trying to spark a draft-day slide.
The tape doesn't lie. That Davis didn't participate in the underwear Olympics did little to change his standing among fellow top-tier receiving prospects. He's a sure-handed, athletic, big-bodied pass-catcher who'd be a great fit for a team like the Baltimore Ravens at No. 16.
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