2017 NFL Draft: 1st-Round Order and Prospects Worth an Early Gamble

It's no secret that the NFL draft is inherently one giant gamble. Sure, smart scouting, due diligence and proper patience can help ensure that a team is making the right draft selections, but predicting the future of a draft prospect is impossible.

Even the most promising of prospects can find ways to bust.

However, some prospects are riskier than others. Whether due to injury history, lack of experience or off-field issues, talented collegiate stars come into the league with massive red flags hanging over their heads.

The 2017 draft has plenty of these risky prospects, but not all of them should be avoided. Here, we'll examine some of this year's risky prospects who are still worth a first-round gamble. We'll examine why the players are worth the risk and why there is a risk in the first place. We'll be avoiding players that appear to be relatively "safe" picks like Myles Garrett or Marshon Lattimore.

First, though, let's take a quick look at the current draft order.

2017 NFL Draft Order

Pick	NFL Team
1	Cleveland Browns
2	San Francisco 49ers
3	Chicago Bears
4	Jacksonville Jaguars
5	Tennessee Titans (from LAR)
6	New York Jets
7	Los Angeles Chargers
8	Carolina Panthers
9	Cincinnati Bengals
10	Buffalo Bills
11	New Orleans Saints
12	Cleveland Browns (from PHI)
13	Arizona Cardinals
14	Philadelphia Eagles (from MIN)
15	Indianapolis Colts
16	Baltimore Ravens
17	Washington Redskins
18	Tennessee Titans
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
02	Denver Broncos
21	Detroit Lions
22	Miami Dolphins
23	New York Giants
24	Oakland Raiders
25	Houston Texans
26	Seattle Seahawks
27	Kansas City Chiefs
28	Dallas Cowboys
29	Green Bay Packers
30	Pittsburgh Steelers
31	Atlanta Falcons
32	New Orleans Saints (from NE)

Players Worth a Gamble

Mike Williams, WR, Clemson

There is a lot to like when it comes to former Clemson wideout Mike Williams. He has the size (6'4", 218 lbs) teams look for at the position and he was pretty productive in his final season at Clemson—he produced 1,361 yards receiving.

However, there are also reasons to be concerned with Williams as a pro prospect. For starters, he missed nearly the entire 2015 season after fracturing his neck. This means there is at least some risk of reinjury and only one season of strong production over the past two years.

The other issue is that while Williams has impressive size, he doesn't carry top-end speed. He refused to log an official 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine and ran one in a so-so 4.5 seconds at Clemson's pro day.

Williams isn't seen as a polished route-runner either. With his lack of elite quickness, he'll need to improve in this area in order to truly succeed as a pro.

"I think he'll get there but he's not there yet," one NFC personnel director told NFL Media's Lance Zierlein. "I don't think he's going to run as fast as people think. When college players get up here and find out that cornerbacks are faster and more physical, there is an adjustment period."

The potential Laquon Treadwell-like rookie season is there.

So why would it still be smart for a team to draft Williams in the first round? His size and physicality can allow him to contribute even as he adjusts to the pro game. Williams can go up and get the ball in tight situations much the same way guys like Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin did early in their careers. He can also be an effective blocker on the perimeter.

As Williams adds more polish to his game, he can develop into a star.

Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State

The former Buckeyes safety looked like a future NFL superstar in 2016, racking up 74 tackles and seven interceptions. The problem, though, is that Hooker enters the draft with just one year of starting experience.

His upside appears to be very high, but he is a raw prospect. Any team that drafts him must be prepared for some significant growing pains.

"Hook(er) is still so raw and you see him making all of those plays," one AFC personnel director told Zierlein. "He's a player who will come in and look bad his first year and then be an All-Pro by his third year. I think that's his arc. No shortcut for experience."

Hooker simply isn't a player that appears NFL-ready right now, and such a player can be risky. Coaches will have to show patience with him and be sure not to destroy his confidence during his growth period. As always, there's no guarantee that Hooker will reach his full potential either—and teams will be drafting him based on potential, not production.

Still, Hooker is worth a gamble early in the first round because of what he might become.

"His anticipation and awareness is off the charts," NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah wrote of Hooker. "I wasn't in Baltimore when Ed Reed was drafted, but I arrived the following year to scout for the [Baltimore] Ravens and spent four years around the future Hall of Famer. Hooker is the closest thing I've seen to Reed seen since I've been scouting."

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina

Let's be honest here: Every quarterback in this year's draft class appears to be a risk. However, former North Carolina signal-caller Mitchell Trubisky is especially risky because he only brings one year of starting experience to the table.

Trubisky's lack of experience is even more troubling than Hooker's given the position that he plays. How much knowledge has Trubisky soaked up in his one year and why couldn't he get on the field sooner?

"The growth potential is obviously there," Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians said, per Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. "The question is why wasn't all that talent starting for the last three years? That's always bugging me. So you have to go and answer those questions with him, with his coach, but the physical talent is there."

The physical talent might be there, but a proper sample size is not. Former NFL receiver Roddy White believes this could create a disaster for potential NFL employers:

However, for the right team, Trubisky is worth the risk. That team has to be able to show patience with Trubisky—potentially even waiting a season to throw him into the fire. At the very least, that team must be willing to endure a slow growing process.

Carson Wentz entered the league with little experience and endured a lot of ups and downs as a rookie. Far from a star for the Philadelphia Eagles, he at least looks to be a competent future starter. Teams cannot draft Trubisky hoping for anything more early.

A team like the Cardinals or the Kansas City Chiefs—teams who have an established quarterback now—might be the best option for Trubisky. That team might end up with a long-term franchise quarterback in return.