NFL Draft 2017: Mock Draft and Trends That Will Be Bucked This Year

It's often scary for NFL teams to break the mold. They instead usually follow a system that has worked for years until something new comes along.

This strategy is true not only on the field but with team-building as well. Organizations go into the draft with similar game plans, depending on their needs, and it creates similar results year after year.

Surprisingly, this could change in 2017. The needs of top teams and the value of each position could create a bizarre twist on what we have come to know from the NFL draft. 

Here are predictions for the first round, as well as a few trends that could end this month.

Pick	Team	Player	Pos.	School
1	Cleveland Browns	Myles Garrett	DE	Texas A&M
2	San Francisco 49ers	Malik Hooker	S	Ohio State
3	Chicago Bears	Solomon Thomas	DE	Stanford
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	Leonard Fournette	RB	LSU
5	Tennessee Titans (from Rams)	Marshon Lattimore	CB	Ohio State
6	New York Jets	Mitchell Trubisky	QB	North Carolina
7	Los Angeles Chargers	Jamal Adams	S	LSU
8	Carolina Panthers	Jonathan Allen	DL	Alabama
9	Cincinnati Bengals	Reuben Foster	ILB	Alabama
10	Buffalo Bills	Mike Williams	WR	Clemson
11	New Orleans Saints	Derek Barnett	DE	Tennessee
12	Cleveland Browns (from Eagles)	DeShone Kizer	QB	Notre Dame
13	Arizona Cardinals	Deshaun Watson	QB	Clemson
14	Philadelphia Eagles (from Vikings)	Quincy Wilson	CB	Florida
15	Indianapolis Colts	Haason Reddick	LB	Temple
16	Baltimore Ravens	Charles Harris	DE	Missouri
17	Washington Redskins	Malik McDowell	DT	Michigan State
18	Tennessee Titans	Corey Davis	WR	Western Michigan
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Christian McCaffrey	RB	Stanford
20	Denver Broncos	O.J. Howard	TE	Alabama
21	Detroit Lions	Dalvin Cook	RB	Florida State
22	Miami Dolphins	Forrest Lamp	OG	Western Kentucky
23	New York Giants	David Njoku	TE	Miami
24	Oakland Raiders	Gareon Conley	CB	Ohio State
25	Houston Texans	Patrick Mahomes	QB	Texas Tech
26	Seattle Seahawks	Garett Bolles	OT	Utah
27	Kansas City Chiefs	Tre'Davious White	CB	LSU
28	Dallas Cowboys	Jabrill Peppers	S	Michigan
29	Green Bay Packers	Taco Charlton	DE	Michigan
30	Pittsburgh Steelers	Takkarist McKinley	OLB	UCLA
31	Atlanta Falcons	Jarrad Davis	OLB	Florida
32	New Orleans Saints (from Patriots)	John Ross	WR	Washington

Trends Coming to an End

Quarterbacks Are Always the Priority

The primary focus for a football team is the quarterback. Organizations know finding an elite one in the draft can lead to success for a decade or more, which makes it such a high priority every year.

Quarterbacks represented the first two picks of last year's draft, as well as the first two picks the year before. Since 2001, 12 of the 16 No. 1 picks have been quarterbacks.

Unless there is a major surprise, this year will be one of the exceptions. 

Myles Garrett is virtually the consensus best player in the class as an edge-rusher with great size and athleticism. At 6'4", 272 pounds, he ran a 40-yard dash in 4.64 seconds at the combine with a 41-inch vertical jump that showcased his explosiveness.

"He's a face-of-the-franchise, cornerstone guy," an executive told Bucky Brooks of NFL.com. "He's a can't-miss prospect. There simply aren't many guys like this walking the planet."

The free-agency moves made by the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears also indicate they might not want to take a quarterback right away. Meanwhile, the New York Jets just drafted Christian Hackenberg last season and have no idea how good he can be, which could keep them from taken one at No. 6.

Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer and Patrick Mahomes II could all be taken in the first round, but it wouldn't be a surprise if all of them lasted beyond the first 10 picks. Each has upside, but none are ready to take over a team from Day 1.

Running Backs Are Devalued

The league rapidly went from overpaying veteran running backs to believing all of them are interchangeable. 

No running backs were taken in the first round in 2013 or 2014 before Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon changed that in 2015. However, it was Ezekiel Elliott who reminded everyone just how good a young running back can be after he was selected with the No. 4 pick by the Dallas Cowboys in 2016.

This was obviously a perfect situation for an NFL-ready running back behind an elite offensive line, but his NFL-best 1,631 rushing yards weren't an accident.

The 2017 class features a handful of players who can make that type of impact right away, assuming they also end up with the right fit.

Leonard Fournette is arguably the top option thanks to his combination of size and speed that could make him a nightmare to tackle. Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey are also projected to be first-round picks in the latest mock draft.

Meanwhile, Bleacher Report's Matt Miller also has Oklahoma's Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara of Tennessee listed among his top 30 players on his big board.

After mostly forgetting about the position for the past few years, the upcoming draft should feature a surge of running backs taken early.

Offensive Linemen Are Safe Picks

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

While quarterbacks are usually taken early, an assumed risk comes with every prospect. Conversely, there has been a myth that offensive linemen are easier to scout and less likely to become a bust.

The relative struggles of Eric Fisher, Luke Joeckel and Greg Robinson—all top-two picks—disprove that theory. 

Although this doesn't mean offensive linemen will never be taken early, there should be more caution when targeting these players. An especially weak class at the position only exacerbates the issue.

Cam Robinson has plenty of talent but is inconsistent. Ryan Ramczyk looks the part, but he lacks experience and is also coming off hip surgery.

Offensive tackle Garett Bolles and offensive guard Forrest Lamp have been included in the latest mock, although neither are expected to be taken in the first half of the round where four tackles were picked last year.

Teams desperate for offensive line help might reach for one of these players earlier than expected, but the trend of blindside tackles taken with the first few picks will end this year.