Scott Miller's Starting 9 (+8): 2017 Predictions (Or, Why I Hate Your Team)
Let's hope your 2017 home repairs go better than Brian Flynn's. His path to the Kansas City Royals' bullpen this spring was rerouted when he went crashing through his barn roof in Oklahoma just before spring training started. He suffered a broken rib and three non-displaced fractures in his vertebrae and opened the season on the disabled list.
Let's also hope your 2017 showers go better than that of projected Cincinnati closer Raisel Iglesias, who suffered a bone bruise to his throwing elbow and soreness in both hips when he slipped and fell while showering this spring. He was sore enough to take anti-inflammatory shots in both areas. And you thought picking a scent of Axe body wash was the most complicated part of stepping into the tub.
TOP NEWS
Assessing Every MLB Team's Development System ⚾
.png?w=256)
10 Scorching MLB Takes 🌶️
Yankees Call Up 6'7" Prospect 📈
Lastly, here's hoping every one of your meals this summer is festive and delicious, just like what you get at the ballpark:
So, it's time for the first trip around the bases in 2017, and the steal sign is on. Look out for that pickoff move, and watch your launch angle. Here we go (and just remember, I really, really loathe your team, whichever one it is, because it falls through roofs, doesn't know how to shower, is so chubby its players' belts snap, whatever, so every one of these picks is very, very personal)...
1. AL East
In order of predicted finish, unless I'm wrong; then in October I'll tell you it all was just random...
Red Sox: In his first start last year, Pablo Sandoval's belt snapped. Whoops. Good news for the Red Sox that a skinny Panda has arrived, and the only thing snapping are his wrists when he swings. Mookie Betts rocks, and ace Chris Sale could win his first Cy Young Award, following teammate Rick Porcello's trophy season last summer. "He really brings a tremendous amount of intensity, desire to win, attitude, leading by example," Sox pitching coach Carl Willis told B/R this spring. The only drag has been David Price's elbow. That could be the one thing that prevents these loaded Red Sox from taking the division title.
Orioles: Manny Machado is going to win the MVP Award. This year? Maybe. Soon? Unquestionably. "I think everyone agrees he's on his own level," Orioles reliever Brad Brach said during spring training. "Him and Nolan Arenado at third base, depending on the day, are 1-2." While the analytics crowd doesn't much like these Orioles, manager Buck Showalter is the best there is in the game at maneuvering bullpens and rotations. When will they learn?
Blue Jays: The Jays could soar if their rotation stays healthy and productive. We saw what Marcus Stroman is capable of in the World Baseball Classic. There's a lot to like with Marco Estrada and Aaron Sanchez, as their also is when Francisco Liriano's slider is sliding. The subtraction of Edwin Encarnacion, however, is the most important loss in the division.
Yankees: How fun are these exotic young prospects going to be? "It's a lot of fun to be around a youth movement," the aging CC Sabathia said. "These guys have been a lot of fun." I guess that answers that. Gary Sanchez made a splash last year. Right fielder Aaron Judge's at-bats will be must-see. And Greg Bird may be the best of them all. "I think Birdie's going to be awesome," Sabathia said. Tweet-tweet it: The Yankees are fun again.
Rays: Center fielder Kevin Kiermaier won his second Gold Glove last season, but he's going to have to cover an awful lot of ground to make sure all of Tampa Bay's holes are plugged. Everybody's favorite underdog is entering another long season.
2. AL Central
The past three American League pennant winners came from this division, and four of the past five. "I'm hoping it's five of six," Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said. "And I'm hoping this year it's somebody different [than last year]."
Indians: Adding Encarnacion to an already strong team was an unexpected bonus. Now if Michael Brantley's progression continues, look out. "Edwin, in my opinion, was the most productive bat out there, and we got him, so good for us," manager Terry Francona said. "You put that bat in the lineup with Brantley—I don't know how many clubs went out and got a No. 3 and a No. 4 hitter." Answer: None. Add that to an ace rotation featuring Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer, and the Indians should be dancing late into October.
Tigers: J.D. Martinez's injured foot is a bad sign, especially given that Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez aren't getting any younger. Still, there's Ian Kinsler, Nicholas Castellanos, James McCann, Justin Upton...this team will score, and it will look good when Justin Verlander is on the mound. The keys will be whether Jordan Zimmermann rebounds from injury and Michael Fulmer can keep dealing after winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award.
Royals: Welcome to the last days of the Royals empire. Four players from the core of this team become free agents after this season: first baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas, shortstop Alcides Escobar and center fielder Lorenzo Cain. The Royals will make one more charge toward a championship, but if things aren't going well by midseason, they also could lead the July trade-deadline market.
Twins: Things can't be as bad as they were last year (59-103) in Minnesota, can they? Let's just say this: The Twins brought 31 pitchers to camp this spring. And? "According to last year, only three of those won't see the big leagues this year," Hall of Famer and manager Paul Molitor deadpanned. Psst, don't tell Molly, but the Twins actually used 29 pitchers to make it through 2016. One bright spot is that veteran Phil Hughes is back from surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.
White Sox: As the South Siders finally conduct a full teardown, the early drama will be which dates they deal starter Jose Quintana, closer David Robertson and third baseman Todd Frazier. But it's all necessary, and the acquisitions of infielder Yoan Moncada and pitching prospects Michael Kopech and Lucas Giolito promise better days ahead. "I don't like the term 'rebuild,'" longtime pitching coach Don Cooper said. "To me, it's always a build to get them to the next step." The Sox are still doing that with lefty Carlos Rodon, their first-round (third overall) pick in the 2014 draft. "I don't have patience for a lot of things in life," Cooper said, "but I have patience for pitching because I know it takes time."
3. AL West
Remember that Sports Illustrated cover story from 2014 that featured the Astros as "Your 2017 World Series Champs"? Well, it's 2017, and SI is picking the Dodgers to win it all. Is there no accountability?
Astros: Adding veterans Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Josh Reddick and Norichika Aoki were savvy moves in that they provided young talents such as Carlos Correa, George Springer and Alex Bregman the kind of sidekicks who know what it takes to get to October. As long as Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. bounce back, the expectations are piling up for this talented team. "We haven't won the division, so it has to go through Texas," manager A.J. Hinch said. "But we'll embrace it. ... Why wouldn't you want to be on a team with a lot of expectations?"
Mariners: General manager Jerry Dipoto always is up to something, and this outfield of Jarrod Dyson, Leonys Martin and Mitch Haniger will be fascinating. Who, you say? Dipoto's mad genius is to stock the outfield with three athletic center field types and let them cover every blade of grass. You can hear the pitchers applauding from here, from Felix Hernandez to James Paxton to Hisashi Iwakuma.
Rangers: Totally respect what they've done over the past several years, and Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish atop the rotation is excellent. But their other starters may include Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, who with Cashner helped bring down the Padres. Plus, Texas was an amazing 36-11 in one-run games last year, which, as the numbers guys will tell you, suggests big-time regression in 2017.
Angels: Any day now, expect Mike Trout to sue for non-support. Baseball's best player continues to perform (and win MVPs) in the comfortable anonymity of the AL West's second division. Last year's 74-88 finish was manager Mike Scioscia's worst record in his 17 years in charge.
Athletics: The best thing Oakland did in 2017 was change the clubhouse chemistry, moving out me-first guys like Billy Butler and replacing them with glue guys like Trevor Plouffe, Rajai Davis and Matt Joyce. The A's won't contend, but it will be fun to watch the development of starting pitchers like Kendall Graveman and Jharel Cotton. And if Sonny Gray can regain his health, all the better.
4. AL Wild Cards
Baltimore in the AL Wild Card Game—it's becoming as traditional as eggs and bacon at a truck stop breakfast...
Orioles and Mariners: Bold prediction: This time, Showalter will use Zach Britton!
5. NL East
Look out, New York is armed again...
Mets: Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey are healthy again, and so is Zack Wheeler. Scoring will continue to be an adventure from time to time, but the game is still all about pitching. And manager Terry Collins has it.
Nationals: They've not won a single playoff series since moving from Montreal. Max Scherzer is awesome, but when will Stephen Strasburg land on the DL this year? Bryce Harper talked this spring about winning one for Jayson Werth, the grizzled, lovable ol' veteran who is on his way out. Bonus: Trea Turner moves from center field to his old position, shortstop. "I don't think it will be a piece of cake, but I'm excited to go back," Turner said. "I've been practicing the whole time, even when I was playing center field. I just didn't get game reps."
Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton leads a group that will begin the season in the shadow of ace Jose Fernandez's death. With Edinson Volquez atop the rotation, the pitching looks a little thin. But on the bright side, center fielder Christian Yelich is in the process of turning into a star. The All-Star Game is in Miami in July, and owner Jeffrey Loria is trying to sell the team and then become...the United States ambassador to France? La vie dansante! (I have no idea what that means, but it's the title of a Jimmy Buffett song, and he's still good for a party now and then, isn't he?)
Braves: Big times in Atlanta as the Braves move into a new ballpark (eat your heart out, Artists Formerly Known as the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers). Shortstop Dansby Swanson will challenge for Rookie of the Year, and we'll all watch to see if Matt Kemp can resist the hot fudge sundaes—or whatever it was that caused him to balloon up in San Diego. Keep a special eye on center fielder Ender Inciarte, who won his first Gold Glove last year. "He really deserved it," Braves manager Brian Snitker said. "He's fun to watch."
Phillies: The rebuild continues as Philadelphia awaits center fielder Mickey Moniak, the No. 1 overall pick in last summer's draft. The Phillies brought back Jeremy Hellickson and added Clay Buchholz to the rotation, but the lean times will continue for a few more years (unless you stop into Pat's cheesesteak shop, where lean isn't on the menu).
6. NL Central
The party continues in Wrigleyville...
Cubs: Arguably, the Cubs are even better this year than last year's 103-game winners: Kyle Schwarber will be in the lineup all year, and the bullpen is more solid to start than it was a year ago with Wade Davis as closer. The big question is whether right fielder Jason Heyward's revamped swing will work. "I see more balls in the air than on the ground," manager Joe Maddon said. That's a trend that needs to continue. Heyward moved to Arizona over the winter in order to overhaul his stroke at the Cubs' facility.
Cardinals: Maybe Dexter Fowler can spark St. Louis the way he drove the Cubs last season. Remember: The only Cubs' skid last year came late in the season's first half when Fowler was on the DL with a hamstring strain. "He's going to add a new level of energy," outfielder Stephen Piscotty said. Opening Day starter Carlos Martinez is ready to make the big leap to ace status, Adam Wainwright still spins his curve, and there are two potential key cogs in Lance Lynn (back this year from Tommy John ligament replacement surgery) and Michael Wacha. "I feel really great," Wacha said. "It was a tough go for sure last year. I got hit around a little bit and had an injury. You learn from the negative." Given that, Wacha (7-7, 5.09 ERA in '16) should be much smarter this year.
Pirates: The ongoing Andrew McCutchen saga...is still ongoing. The trade rumors never came to fruition, then the Buccos shoved him over to right field from center this spring. The rotation is shaky, which could make the five games under .500 that Pittsburgh fell to last year look attractive by the end of this summer.
Brewers: Ryan Braun doesn't want to play in spring training. He hates spring training. He ripped it a couple of weeks ago, whining about not getting paid by the hour. Such a tough life. Milwaukee will continue to try to deal him, but this dude's got more baggage than Samsonite. Good luck.
Reds: Yes, Joey Votto is still a Red. Otherwise, move along. Nothing to see here.
7. NL West
The Dodgers-Giants rivalry adds another few electric chapters...
Giants: Mark Melancon might not be Mariano Rivera or Goose Gossage, but he is just what San Francisco needed: The Giants blew more saves than any other team last year and still gave the Cubs everything they wanted in a National League Division Series. Moving on from Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla was addition by subtraction. Losing lefty Will Smith to an elbow injury was a blow, but the rotation of Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Matt Moore and, yes, even Matt Cain is tough. No wonder manager Bruce Bochy smiled so much this spring.
Dodgers: Everybody is picking Los Angeles to win, and it's easy to see why (I would have, too, if I wasn't such a contrarian). Having Julio Urias on an innings limit (in the 160-180 range) takes a little bit of steam away, and after Clayton Kershaw there remain questions on the mound. Hyun-Jin Ryu, one of those questions, appears healthy for the first time since 2014. "He's been great," manager Dave Roberts said. "When you see a player's demeanor, there's a certain look. ... This year, his whole demeanor is new. Swings and misses, what the ball's doing in the strike zone—a lot of good things are going on." One note of caution: Corey Seager didn't play much this spring because of an oblique injury, so keep an eye on that.
Diamondbacks: Zack Greinke is attempting to trust his two-seamer, having described that singular pitch as good for a couple of games and bad for the next couple throughout his career. Metrics show he's throwing fewer fastballs, but he's so intelligent on the mound that it's hard not to see him having a bounce-back season in '17. The Snakes were so disappointing last year, it's easy to see them becoming the game's surprise team if they get any kind of pitching. Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, David "Freight Train" Peralta...there's a lot to like.
Rockies: Ian Desmond opened the year on the DL with a fractured hand, which is reminiscent of Arizona being crippled by losing Pollock to open last season. Difference is, the Rockies expect Desmond back by early May. As always, this team will put up crooked numbers while searching under every Coors Field seat cushion for pitching. Youngster Jon Gray, 25, will lead the way, and Antonio Senzatela, 22, and Harrison Musgrave, 25, are on deck. New manager Bud Black thinks the club can win right away, so stay tuned.
Padres: Watching Christian Bethancourt will be half the fun: He will be used as a backup catcher, a backup outfielder...and a relief pitcher. Maybe he'll even sell hot dogs in the stands as a vendor. Who knows? San Diego is so young and so in the middle of rebuilding that, what the heck, it's time to experiment. Outfielders Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe will be in the Rookie of the Year running if things break right in the Land of the Fish Taco.
8. NL Wild Cards
And, sniff, Vin Scully's voice will be nowhere near the Los Angeles airwaves this year...
Dodgers and Nationals: What an epic this could be if Kershaw and Scherzer face off.
9. World Series
Book it...
Indians over Giants: Hey, since 2004, we've seen the Red Sox break their curse and the White Sox and Cubs end their droughts. So why wouldn't the team dragging baseball's longest current title-less streak (Cleveland hasn't won since 1948) win now? Especially when it's loaded?
10. MVPs
Look to the Beltway...
Manny Machado, Orioles: He's finished in the top five of the voting in each of the past two seasons and, at 24, his time is now.
Bryce Harper, Nationals: He wouldn't acknowledge he played last season with an injured shoulder, but that's still the only explanation for how Harper could have fallen so far. Look for a colossal comeback this year. And if there isn't one, keep your eye on the Dodgers' Seager.
11. Cy Youngs
One new face in a new place, and one familiar face in the same space...
Chris Sale, Red Sox: Let's just say "Scissorhands" will not be shredding his own team's uniforms this year. He'll be shredding opposing lineups instead in the best chance to win of his career.
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: Kershaw might have the most valuable back in all of Los Angeles. After he missed two-and-a-half months last year, the Dodgers are doing all they can to ensure Kershaw stays on the mound as they take aim at their first World Series appearance since 1988.
12. Rookies of the Year
Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox: Boston's outfield of Benintendi, Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr.—whoa, look out.
Dansby Swanson, Braves: By season's end, Arizona will regret trading him even more than it already does.
13. Managers of the Year
A.J. Hinch, Astros: Dude is sharp as a tack, and he's got the players to win.
Terry Collins, Mets: As long as he can spell "Syndergaard," "deGrom," "Harvey," etc.
14. First Manager Fired
Bryan Price, Reds: A delightful man, but he's in a no-win situation. Tough to say which will happen first: whether he'll get so discouraged he flees, or whether the Reds perform a mercy removal.
15. First Name Player Traded
Jose Quintana, White Sox: Houston needs rotation help, and Quintana would be perfect. In fact, Quintana would be perfect for a lot of clubs. And if Chicago doesn't deal him between now and July 31, it will be a bigger surprise than Loria suddenly becoming ambassador to France.
16. Weekly Power Rankings
1. Presidential First Pitch: President Donald Trump's staff declined the Washington Nationals' invitation for what always is a fun Opening Day tradition. You might even say his staff built a wall around the Nats' advances.
2. Rougned Odor's Horses: The Rangers included two to help seal Odor's contract extension, reaffirming his love of equines, which I detailed in this profile of Odor last summer. Extra hay, anyone?
3. MLB Extra Innings Package: Indispensable summer treat. Watch all games on television. What else are you going to do at 1 a.m. in the East besides watch a West Coast game? Wait, don't answer that.
4. Yankees' Spring Training Record: They finished 24-9, meaning a World Series run is imminent, right? Oh, wait, last spring the Los Angeles Angels (19-8) finished with the AL's best spring record, and in 2015 Oakland (22-11) did. And in 2014 Tampa Bay (16-7) did, and...well, you get the point.
5. Big Little Lies: Soapy, addictive HBO show featuring Reese Witherspoon and Nicole Kidman that ended its first season Sunday with an episode in which a major league manager fibbed about the various injuries of his players, underplaying the severity of most of them. Or, wait. Darn. Maybe I'm confusing Big Little Lies with something else.
17. Rock 'N' Roll Lyric of the Week
My annual tribute to the late, great Ernie Harwell, who opened his first spring training broadcast each year by reciting the "Voice of the Turtle." You can listen here.
"For, lo, the winter is past
"The rain is over and gone
"The flowers appear on the Earth
"The time of the singing of birds is come
"And the voice of the turtle is heard in our land."
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball.
.png?w=480)
