Final Four 2017: Full Breakdown, Predictions and Stars to Watch
Only three games remain in the 2016-17 men's college basketball season, so we're 120 minutes (barring overtimes) away from finding out whether North Carolina, Gonzaga, Oregon or South Carolina will win the national championship.
Three of those teams aren't huge surprises, given their success in recent years and their expectations for this season. South Carolina, though? That was one heck of a curveball.
Now that the Gamecocks are here, though, they just might win it all.
How did these teams get here? Who are their best players? What is each team's blueprint to a title?
What follows are the stars, stats and storylines to watch when action resumes in Glendale, Arizona, on Saturday night.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
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Record: 36-1, No. 1 seed in West Region
Path to Phoenix: 66-46 over No. 16 South Dakota State, 79-73 over No. 8 Northwestern, 61-58 over No. 4 West Virginia, 83-59 over No. 11 Xavier
Biggest Strength: Ranked No. 1 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency
Achilles' Heel: Shooting 58.6 percent (65-of-111) from the free-throw line in the NCAA tournament
How They Got Here
Save for giving up 53 points in the second half of a near-collapse against Northwestern, Gonzaga has been getting the job done on the defensive end of the floor.
In the opener, the Zags stifled South Dakota State's one-man wrecking crew, Mike Daum. They held West Virginia to just 26.7 percent shooting and limited Xavier—which had been shooting 45.6 percent in the tournament—to 2-of-16 (12.5 percent) from three-point range.
The offense has been inconsistent, at best, but it showed up in a big way in the game that finally got Gonzaga to its first Final Four. Led by Nigel Williams-Goss and Josh Perkins, the Bulldogs shot 12-of-24 from downtown against Xavier. They opened up an early lead and never let their foot off the gas in what looked like just another mid-January night against some poor West Coast Conference foe.
Biggest Regular-Season "What If?"
What if Gonzaga hadn't lost to BYU in the regular-season finale?
With Wichita State (2014) and Kentucky (2015) entering the NCAA tournament with zeroes in the loss column, there has been a lot of debate in recent years about whether a team would be better off losing at some point during the regular season. Those in favor of this approach seem to feel it's hard enough to win in the NCAA tournament without the added pressure of trying to go undefeated.
For Gonzaga, perhaps the loss to BYU was a much-needed wake-up call. Prior to that game, the Bulldogs had won 21 consecutive games by a double-digit margin. It was late February and they hadn't even been challenged since early December. Had they entered the tournament feeling invincible, they might have received a rude awakening when Northwestern and West Virginia refused to simply bow to their greatness.
Oregon Ducks
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Record: 33-5, No. 3 seed in Midwest Region
Path to Phoenix: 93-77 over No. 14 Iona, 75-72 over No. 11 Rhode Island, 69-68 over No. 7 Michigan, 74-60 over No. 1 Kansas
Biggest Strength: Ranked No. 1 in the country in block percentage
Achilles' Heel: Forcing just 9.3 turnovers per game in the NCAA tournament
How They Got Here
Chris Boucher's season-ending injury in the Pac-12 tournament wasn't quite a season-ending injury for Oregon. Many wrote off the Ducks after they lost their elite shot-blocker with respectable three-point range, but they still have a few great tricks up their sleeve.
The defense struggled initially without Boucher, giving up 83 points to Arizona in the Pac-12 championship game. But it has quickly improved to the point where it held Michigan and Kansas—two teams which otherwise averaged a combined 90.6 points per game in the tournament—to 68 and 60, respectively. The Jayhawks were an unstoppable force until they met an immovable object named Jordan Bell.
Oregon's junior center had 11 points, 13 rebounds and eight blocks in the Elite Eight win over Kansas. And that doesn't even include the shots he altered with his presence. Devonte' Graham only attempted one two-point field goal, air-balling a floater in the lane because he was tentative about having it blocked down his throat.
Pair Bell with Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks, and Oregon has one heck of a trio on both ends of the floor.
Biggest Regular-Season "What If?"
What if Boucher had not torn his ACL?
Oregon has been great as is, but could you imagine if the Ducks were still bringing Boucher off the bench for 24 minutes per game instead of divvying that time up between less effective weapons?
Outside of Dorsey shooting an absurd 17-of-26 (65.4 percent) from three-point range, Oregon has been good-not-great from downtown. Dylan Ennis is 3-of-12, Casey Benson is 2-of-7 and Payton Pritchard is 0-6 in his last three games. Boucher could've been an X-factor in that department that pushed the Ducks from "candidate" to "favorite."
Alternatively, Boucher might have kept Bell from finding his superstar gear. In the six games prior to Boucher's injury, Bell averaged 8.2 points and 8.0 rebounds. In five games without Boucher, Bell has averaged 13.2 points and 12.0 rebounds, including 5.8 offensive boards per game.
South Carolina Gamecocks
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Record: 26-10, No. 7 seed in East Region
Path to Phoenix: 93-73 over No. 10 Marquette, 88-81 over No. 2 Duke, 70-50 over No. 3 Baylor, 77-70 over No. 4 Florida
Biggest Strength: Ranked No. 2 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency
Achilles' Heel: Ranked No. 299 in the country in effective field-goal percentage
How They Got Here
Every year, there's a No. 7 seed or two that looks like a threat to make a deep run. Connecticut won it all as a No. 7 seed three years ago. Both Wichita State and Michigan State were sensational No. 7 seeds the following year with the Spartans making the Final Four. Michigan and Saint Mary's seemed to fit that description this year.
But no one in their right mind was picking South Carolina as a Cinderella team.
The Gamecocks entered the NCAA tournament with a 3-6 record in their last nine games and had the worst effective field-goal percentage of any team in the tournament. The last time we saw them prior to Selection Sunday, they scored 53 points in an ugly loss to Alabama.
Out of nowhere, they're averaging 82 points per game and scoring at will against some of the better defenses in the country. Sindarius Thornwell has been the undisputed star, but they're getting contributions from all over the place for the first time all year.
Defense is their calling card, though, and it showed up in a big way in Madison Square Garden. After simply outscoring Marquette and Duke in the first two rounds, South Carolina dug in its heels on defense and shut down both Baylor and Florida.
Biggest Regular-Season "What If?"
What if Thornwell had been dismissed from the team?
Thornwell was suspended for the final six games of December for reasons that were never disclosed—though David Caraviello of the Post and Courier suggested it may have been linked to his offseason arrest for charges of marijuana possession and driving under a suspended license.
Regardless of the cause, the effect was that South Carolina wasn't the same without him, going winless against teams in the KenPom Top 250 during that stretch. This was to be expected, though, considering he leads the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals and ranks second in blocks.
If Frank Martin hadn't welcomed Thornwell back onto the roster after a six-game hiatus, the Gamecocks wouldn't even be in the NCAA tournament, let alone the Final Four.
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North Carolina Tar Heels
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Record: 31-7, No. 1 seed in South Region
Path to Phoenix: 103-64 over No. 16 Texas Southern, 72-65 over No. 8 Arkansas, 92-80 over No. 4 Butler, 75-73 over No. 2 Kentucky
Biggest Strength: Ranked No. 1 in the country in offensive rebound percentage
Achilles' Heel: Shooting 30.0 percent from three-point range in last five games
How They Got Here
After obliterating Texas Southern in the opener, nothing came easily for the only ACC team to make it at least as far as the Sweet 16.
The Tar Heels trailed Arkansas by five in the final three minutes of the second round before closing on a 12-0 run. Likewise, they fell behind Kentucky by five points in the final five minutes of the Elite Eight prior to a 12-0 run that gave them just enough of a cushion to prevail after Malik Monk made a few late three-pointers.
Survive and advance, though. That's all that matters for a team on a redemption tour. As long as Kris Jenkins is sitting behind the bench in support of Nate Britt and not on the floor breaking their hearts, they're happy. It's irrelevant whether they win by 39 or need reserve big man Luke Maye to make a jumper with less than a second left on the clock.
Biggest Regular-Season "What If?"
What if Kenny Williams had stayed healthy?
North Carolina's sophomore shooting guard suffered a season-ending knee injury in mid-February—right as Theo Pinson was returning from an injury that cost him most of the season. As a result, there was no dilemma about who to plug into the starting lineup; Pinson simply replaced Williams, albeit as a much less effective three-point shooter.
But would the Tar Heels be shooting better right now if Williams were still around? Or would there be a logjam for minutes in the backcourt? Freshmen guards Brandon Robinson and Seventh Woods are already barely seeing action, and finding time for both Williams and Pinson might have cut into Nate Britt's playing time—who was great in the first three rounds of the tournament.
Biggest Storylines
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3 Head Coaches Make Final Four Debut
In each of the past two years, every head coach in the Final Four had been there, done that. A few of them (Bo Ryan, Jay Wright and Lon Kruger) had only been to the national semifinals once before, but they all had some experience under the brightest lights college basketball has to offer.
This year, though, Roy Williams is the only one who knows exactly what to expect. Dana Altman and Mark Few have a combined 46 years of coaching experience and 1,099 career wins, but neither one has ever come this far. Throw in Frank Martin making his Final Four debut in his 10th season and you have a trifecta of first-timers.
Moreover, even the fans don't know what to expect. It was impressive when Kevin Ollie led Connecticut to the 2014 title in just his second year as a head coach, but there were Huskies on the roster with national championship experience. Between Gonzaga, Oregon and South Carolina, 75 percent of these programs have zero Final Four appearances since World War II began.
Where Have All the Freshmen Gone?
As has been the case for the past decade, we spent this entire season obsessing over one-and-done superstars. Guys like Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum, Lauri Markkanen, Miles Bridges, Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo were constantly making headlines in advance of their inevitable decisions to declare for the NBA draft.
But the veterans have taken center stage en route to Phoenix. Provided the coaches don't change their lineups in the next week, the 20 starters in the Final Four will be made up of seven seniors, seven juniors, four sophomores and just two freshmen—Oregon's Payton Pritchard and South Carolina's Maik Kotsar.
In lieu of first-year stars, transfers rule the roost. Gonzaga's Nigel Williams-Goss, Johnathan Williams III and Jordan Mathews and Oregon's Dylan Ennis all began their college careers elsewhere before becoming starters for Final Four teams.
West Coast Basketball Is Back
Over the past eight years, the Final Four has been dominated by teams from the East and Central time zones. No team west of Norman, Oklahoma, has been to the national semifinals since the end of UCLA's back-to-back-to-back stretch in 2008.
But with the Final Four being held west of the Rockies for the first time since 1995, it was the perfect year for multiple West Coast teams to make it.
If Oregon and Gonzaga happen to meet for the national championship, it will become comically apparent which East Coast journalists occasionally stayed up late enough to watch the Ducks and Zags play during the regular season.
Can North Carolina Redeem the ACC?
In 2011, the Big East sent a record 11 teams to the NCAA tournament. Only two made it to the Sweet 16, but that factoid has been lost in the sands of time because 2011 will forever be remembered as the year that Kemba Walker led Connecticut to 11 straight wins in the Big East and NCAA tournaments.
Much of this season was dedicated to asking whether the ACC is the best conference ever, indirectly suggesting it was even better than that Big East bunch from six years ago. But that narrative went up in smoke when eight of the nine ACC teams invited to the dance failed to survive the first weekend.
Or did it?
If North Carolina can win two more games, is anyone going to look back in a few years and immediately remember the ACC falling flat on its face? Probably not. We would remember it as the year South Carolina shocked the world, the year that Gonzaga finally reached the Final Four and the year that Roy Williams cemented his legacy in the pantheon of college basketball coaches.
That's only if North Carolina wins it all, though. If the Tar Heels fall to Oregon in their next game, it might be a decade before we point to the 2017 NCAA tournament without recalling the ACC's struggles.
Stars to Watch
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Tyler Dorsey, Oregon
Tournament Stats: 24.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, 65.4% 3PT
Players who score with both high volume and high efficiency typically average around 1.5 points per field-goal attempt. Doug McDermott's senior-year ratio was 1.49. Buddy Hield's was 1.54. But in the tournament, Tyler Dorsey is sitting at 1.92 without even doing much damage from the free-throw line. It seems like he makes every shot he takes.
Dillon Brooks, Oregon
Tournament Stats: 16.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.3 APG, 39.1% 3PT
Dillon Brooks has probably only been the third-best player in the tournament for the Ducks, but the preseason All-American is still making quite the impact. He has scored at least 10 points in every game since the beginning of February while pitching in with a respectable number of rebounds and assists. He's a jack of all trades who has been consistently filling up the box score for the past two years.
Jordan Bell, Oregon
Tournament Stats: 12.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 2.8 BPG, 1.8 APG
Jordan Bell stepped into the national spotlight with his eight blocks in Saturday night's win over Kansas, but he has been a star in the paint for Oregon all season long. The big junior isn't one of the go-to scorers for the Ducks, but he has recorded at least 12 rebounds in each tournament game. Without his presence in the paint, there's no chance this team is still standing.
Nigel Williams-Goss, Gonzaga
Tournament Stats: 15.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 2.0 SPG
Nigel Williams-Goss has been hit-or-miss through the first four rounds. He was great against Northwestern and Xavier, but he struggled against South Dakota State and West Virginia. If the good version of Williams-Goss shows up for the final weekend, the Zags have a legitimate chance to win it all. With Lonzo Ball, Caleb Swanigan, Josh Hart and Frank Mason all gone, NWG is the closest thing to a National Player of the Year front-runner left in the dance.
Sindarius Thornwell, South Carolina
Tournament Stats: 25.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 42.3% 3PT
Dorsey has been incredible, but if you're picking a Most Outstanding Player based on what we've seen through four rounds, it has to go to Sindarius Thornwell. Everyone in the building knows that he's the guy South Carolina wants to get the ball to, and yet he has scored at least 24 points in every game while filling up the rest of the box score. We're always on the lookout for the next Kemba Walker, and Thornwell is carrying his tournament team better than anyone else has since 2011.
Justin Jackson, North Carolina
Tournament Stats: 19.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.3 APG, 40.7% 3PT
The 2017 ACC Player of the Year brought his A game into the month of March, too. Justin Jackson has at least 15 points, five rebounds and three assists in each NCAA tournament game and was a key factor in shutting down the three-point attacks of Butler and Kentucky. Prior to Kentucky draining three straight triples in the final minute, those teams were a combined 12-of-44 (27.3 percent) from beyond the arc, struggling to find open looks against this 6'8" wing.
Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina
Tournament Stats: 10.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 2.5 BPG, 1.0 SPG
North Carolina leads the nation in offensive rebound percentage, and Kennedy Meeks is the biggest reason why. The Tar Heels don't run much offense through their senior center, but it's probably because they know he's going to get a fair number of points just by living on the glass. He already has 15 offensive rebounds in the tournament, 12 of which came in the nail-biters against Arkansas and Kentucky.
Underrated Players to Watch
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Zach Collins, Gonzaga
Tournament Stats: 7.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG
The NBA draft folks are all-in on Zach Collins as the Zag with the most pro potential, but the sixth man at Gonzaga isn't usually a household name among college basketball fans. It doesn't help matters that Collins was flustered by West Virginia's pressure and fouled out in just 13 minutes against Xavier. As a result, a lot of people have hardly even gotten the chance to watch him play.
Just know that Collins has been a crucial freshman off the bench all season long and might become the most dominant big man in the country if he comes back for another year. When Przemek Karnowski needs a break, there's no drop-off in talent at center for the Bulldogs.
Jordan Mathews, Gonzaga
Tournament Stats: 13.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 34.4% 3PT
Nigel Williams-Goss is the Player of the Year candidate. Johnathan Williams III is the energy guy who had a great second weekend. Collins is getting the attention of NBA scouts. And Karnowski is the gigantic dude with the awesome beard and the name that's fun to say. There just isn't any room left for casual fans to pay attention to this team's best three-point weapon. If opponents aren't paying attention to Mathews, though, he'll torch them for 20 or more points.
Maik Kotsar, South Carolina
Tournament Stats: 5.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG
Maik Kotsar wasn't even in South Carolina's starting lineup at the end of the regular season, but when he can avoid foul trouble, he has been a huge piece of the puzzle for the Gamecocks. Kotsar had 12 points and three offensive rebounds in the Elite Eight win over Florida. And though he hasn't blocked a single shot yet in the tournament, his big, physical body keeps opponents from finding anything easy in the paint.
Chris Silva, South Carolina
Tournament Stats: 13.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.3 BPG
Like Kotsar, Chris Silva has been a crucial component for the Gamecocks when he can stay out of foul trouble. He has only averaged 25.5 minutes, but he has scored in double figures in every tournament game. They will need him on the court as much as possible against Gonzaga's frontcourt quartet.
Luke Maye, North Carolina
Tournament Stats: 12.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG
Luke Maye isn't exactly a secret weapon after draining the game-winner against Kentucky, but who could've seen this type of dominance coming from North Carolina's reserve stretch 4? In the seven games leading up to the tournament, Maye averaged 3.4 points and 3.3 rebounds and got most of his minutes when either Isaiah Hicks or Kennedy Meeks was in foul trouble. He's suddenly one of the most irreplaceable parts of the UNC rotation.
Gonzaga's Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen and Gonzaga will win its first national championship.
1. Defense continues to perform at an elite level.
Gonzaga's defensive efficiency field-goal percentage is currently at 41.2. It's the best rate in the country this season by a significant margin, but it's also historically impressive. In the KenPom era, which dates back to the 2001-02 season, only the 2014-15 Kentucky Wildcats (39.6) had a better defensive eFG% than this team. And before you try to dismiss that achievement because it includes 21 games against West Coast Conference opponents, know that Gonzaga's defensive eFG% in the NCAA tournament is 37.8.
2. Nigel Williams-Goss continues to play like he did in the Elite Eight.
Gonzaga wasn't quite itself in the first three rounds because Nigel Williams-Goss was struggling. After shooting 50.9 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from three-point range during the regular season, NWG's numbers were 28.6 and 12.5, respectively, in the first three tournament games. But the WCC Player of the Year was back in a big way against Xavier, finishing with 23 points, eight rebounds, four assists and no turnovers. When that guy shows up, Gonzaga thrives.
3. Johnathan Williams III does the same.
An inefficient shooter in his first two seasons at Missouri, Johnathan Williams has blossomed into one of Gonzaga's most reliable sources of offense, shooting 62.6 percent from inside the arc and 40.5 percent beyond it. Williams is also one of the best defenders for the Bulldogs. Both of those aspects of his game were on full display against Xavier. He shot 7-of-11 from two-point range, drained his only three-point attempt and recorded three blocks and two steals.
Oregon's Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen and Oregon will win its first national championship since 1939.
1. The three-point arc remains Oregon's friend.
Led by Tyler Dorsey, the Ducks are shooting 43.2 percent from three-point range through four tournament games. Even more noteworthy, they have limited their four opponents to 30.8 percent. Some of that is dumb luck, as good shooters like Michigan's Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Kansas' Devonte' Graham couldn't get any wide-open jumpers to fall. Regardless, Oregon is 24-0 this season when its three-point percentage is better than its opponent's.
2. Jordan Bell protects the paint without fouling.
Most elite shot-blockers deal with foul trouble and/or struggle on the defensive glass, but not Jordan Bell. In his last 12 games, Bell has averaged 5.9 defensive rebounds, 2.4 blocks and 0.8 personal fouls. As a result, Oregon has complicated opponents' first shot attempts, limited second-chance opportunities and allowed just 12.0 free-throw attempts through the first four games of the tournament. Bell might not be Oregon's top candidate for Most Outstanding Player, but he is clearly the most important one.
3. The clutch duo does its thing.
During the regular season, Dillon Brooks had multiple game-winning buzzer-beaters. In March, Dorsey has become an unstoppable scoring machine. In the comeback win over Rhode Island, those two studs combined for 28 of Oregon's final 33 points. Likewise, they accounted for 16 of the last 22 points against Kansas. It's important to know who you can count on when you need a late bucket, and the Ducks are living in the lap of luxury with two guys who have ice in their veins.
South Carolina's Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen and South Carolina will win its first national championship.
1. The Gamecocks shoot at least 43.2 percent from the field.
For most teams, that's not asking much. High Point shot 43.2 percent for the season and ranked 245th in the nation in that category. But for South Carolina, that's the magic number. The Gamecocks are 16-0 when shooting at least 43.2 percent from the field, including tournament wins over Marquette (52.9), Florida (49.1) and Baylor (46.0).
2. Win the turnover battle.
South Carolina is one of the best in the nation at forcing turnovers, and that defensive dominance has paid dividends in the tournament. Marquette and Duke each coughed it up 18 times against the Gamecocks. Baylor and Florida weren't much better at 16 apiece. Those 16 turnovers by the Gators resulted in 20 points for the Gamecocks.
3. Stay out of Sindarius Thornwell's way.
Thornwell has been the KenPom.com MVP of all four tournament games and has now earned that honor 18 times. He leads the nation in that category, despite playing fewer games than most. If anything, South Carolina isn't getting him the ball enough, as he's only averaging 15 field-goal attempts per game. Given his ability to score in traffic and/or get to and convert from the free-throw line, he should be getting a touch on every single possession.
North Carolina's Blueprint to a Title
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If all goes according to plan, these three things will happen and North Carolina will win its sixth national championship.
1. North Carolina keeps the rebounding battle from being a close one.
As the top offensive rebounding team in the nation, it's not uncommon for the Tar Heels to destroy the opposition on the glass. According to game logs on Sports-Reference, they have finished plus-11 or better in rebound margin 23 times. In those 23 games, they are 23-0 with an average margin of victory of 23.8 points. But the 31-7 Tar Heels are 0-5 when they are plus-four or worse in rebound margin. It's a meaningless statistic in a lot of games, but it's a huge part of the equation for North Carolina.
2. Joel Berry stops rolling his ankles.
Berry injured his right ankle early in the win over Texas Southern and did the same to his left ankle early against Kentucky. As a result, the only time in the tournament he has looked like himself was in the Sweet 16 game against Butler—five days in a walking boot after the initial injury. If he heals up in time for the Final Four and is making his usual quota of deep jumpers and smart decisions, North Carolina is the best team left in the field.
3. The refs let them play.
This is a big one we've been reiterating throughout the season, but North Carolina's big men have a tendency to get into foul trouble, particularly Isaiah Hicks. But with no Tar Heel committing more than three fouls against Kentucky, they shot nearly 56 percent from inside the arc, blocked nine shots and did just enough on the glass to limit Edrice Adebayo, making up for a rough night of three-point shooting and turnovers by the backcourt. Given the aforementioned note about rebound margin, keeping those frontcourt studs in the game is imperative to UNC's success.
Predictions
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No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 7 South Carolina
Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
Buckle up for what could be one of the ugliest rock fights in the final weekend of the NCAA tournament since Connecticut's 53-41 win over Butler in the 2011 national championship game. This time around, though, it'll be because these are two of the most efficient defenses in the country.
South Carolina thrives on forcing turnovers, and Gonzaga had more than a little bit of trouble dealing with Press Virginia two rounds ago. However, that game might have helped prepare the Bulldogs for what they'll be facing from the Gamecocks. And if South Carolina doesn't force at least seven more turnovers than it gives up, Sindarius Thornwell might not be enough for yet another upset.
Prediction: Gonzaga 67-60
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 3 Oregon
Saturday at 8:49 p.m. ET (CBS)
By luck of the draw, Oregon ran into four teams average at best on the glass, three of which did most of their damage this season from three-point range.
North Carolina is a completely different animal. Save for about 12-to-15 three-point attempts from Joel Berry and Justin Jackson, the Tar Heels want to do the bulk of their scoring in the paint, where the Ducks have struggled since losing Chris Boucher.
With both Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks making it rain from three-point range, anything is possible. North Carolina scored at will in the paint in both of its losses to Duke this season, but the Blue Devils shot a combined 23-of-44 from three-point range in those games, willfully trading threes for twos. And Duke didn't have a shot-blocker the likes of Jordan Bell.
Still, North Carolina's eight-man rotation and four-man frontcourt ought to be just a little too much for the Ducks to handle.
Prediction: North Carolina 81-77
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 North Carolina
Monday at 9:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
Given how unpredictable this tournament has been, chances are one or both of these teams won't actually reach the title game. If it does happen, it'll make for an intriguing battle between teams that are loaded in the frontcourt.
Przemek Karnowski, Johnathan Williams III, Zach Collins and Killian Tillie against Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, Tony Bradley and Luke Maye?
Yes, please!
This one is likely to be decided on the perimeter, where Gonzaga is better on both ends of the floor.
It won't be on a buzzer-beater, but losing to a "mid-major" might be even more disheartening for North Carolina fans than last year's result.
Prediction: Gonzaga 76-71
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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