The Riskiest Signings of NFL Free Agency so Far

We're over a week into free agency in the NFL in 2017, and there's been something for everyone.

There have been signings that were hailed as master strokes, such as, well, just about everything the New England Patriots have done to date.

There have been signings that were panned, such as the Chicago Bears' "answer" to their problems at quarterback.

And there have been deals we just aren't sure about. Contracts that could just as easily blow up in a team's face as pay huge dividends. Signings that carry the potential for a big reward but also a substantial degree of risk.

Then there are the deals panned because of that uncertainty.

It's those latter categories we'll focus on here, with a look back at the riskiest signings in free agency so far in 2017.

Mike Glennon to Chicago Bears

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Three years, $45 million, $18.5 million guaranteed

Might as well get the low-hanging fruit first.

Granted, Mike Glennon's contract with the Chicago Bears isn't as bad as it appeared when word first circulated the team was going to pay him $15 million per season.

In fact, Peter King of the MMQB wrote recently that he believes the most lambasted contract of the first day of free agency in 2017 wasn't a bad deal at all:

"

I actually think the Bears did a good deal—relatively—with Mike Glennon, now that the numbers are out. It’s $16 million guaranteed in year one, and then only $2.5 million guaranteed after that in a three-year deal. Glennon has 2017 to prove he’s a good starter, or the Bears will go QB-prospecting again in 2018. And it’s no lock they won’t take a passer high in this draft either.

"

It's no secret that desperation for a dependable starting quarterback grips every team that doesn't have one like a fever. But even those who believe that the Glennon contract wasn't a disaster have to concede that the 27-year-old is a risky bet.

After all, we're talking about a quarterback who hasn't started a game since November of 2014. A passer who has attempted all of 11 passes over the past two seasons. A player who was so great as the starter for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that he was benched in favor of journeyman Josh McCown.

Glennon's thrown twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions in his career. And his career passer rating of 84.6 isn't terrible.

But he has also failed to complete even 60 percent of his passes, and $18.5 million is a lot of money to pay for "not terrible."

Calais Campbell to Jacksonville Jaguars

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Four Years, $60 million, $30 million guaranteed

Glennon may have plenty to prove in the NFL, but the same most certainly cannot be said for defensive end Calais Campbell. The 30-year-old was Pro Football Focus' third-ranked defensive end in the NFL last year.

Campbell is a force at setting the edge—a 300-pound wrecking ball who can be impossibly quick for a man of his size. He is, without question, one of the best in the league at what he does.

The problem is that what he's done to date over nine years in the NFL is play the 5-technique spot on a three-man defensive line. In Jacksonville, Campbell will play in the 4-3.

The two-time Pro-Bowler told Robert Klemko of the MMQB that he can make a smooth transition:

"

For me, I feel like I can play in any scheme. I was a college 4-3 rusher. I got to NFL and I was a 5-technique mostly, then after a while they realized I could play well inside as well. To me, as long as I have a job to do, I’m gonna do it the best way I know how to. But there is an adjustment period going outside to inside...going back outside? Easier adjustment.

"

It's also worth noting that for all Campbell's achievements in the NFL, he's never logged more than nine sacks in a season.

There's no reason to think he can't make the adjustment to a new scheme. His level of play, to date, hasn't shown any real signs of decline.

But the Jaguars just gave a lot of guaranteed money to an aging end who has never posted huge sack numbers. Even a slight backslide to the six-sack range could inspire grousing about the veteran being just the latest player the Jaguars overpaid in free agency.

A.J. Bouye to Jacksonville Jaguars

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Five years, $67.5 million, $26 million guaranteed

Credit where it's due. No one can accuse the Jacksonville Jaguars of sitting on their hands.

In addition to handing Campbell $30 million in guarantees, Jacksonville gave close to that to cornerback A.J. Bouye, signing the 25-year-old to a five-year deal that makes him the fifth-highest-paid corner in the NFL in guaranteed money per Over the Cap.

To the surprise of no one, as Aaron Wilson wrote for the Houston Chronicle, Bouye is a happy (and wealthy) young man.

"I'm blessed for this opportunity," Bouye said. He continued:

"

It was definitely a tough process, but I was leaving it all up to my agent and talking to some of my teammates in Houston. We went through the same situation last year where I was kind of ready to sign with Houston. My agent told me to take the tender and bet on myself. I trusted my agent on that and trusted him on every place I've gone and it's always worked out.

This deal is just making me more hungry because people don't believe anything. I know how hard I will work to get better as a player and show them they didn't make a mistake at all.

"

However, as Bouye alluded to, there are those who doubt the wisdom of such a big financial commitment to a rather unproven player.

Yes, Bouye was a top-10 NFL corner in 2016, per Pro Football Focus. But 2016 also marked the first season in which Bouye played more than 650 snaps. In his only other season with over 500 (2014), Bouye ranked 77th at the position.

It's simple. If Bouye backs up 2016, no one will think twice about this deal. Shutdown corners are expensive. It's a fact of life in today's NFL.

If he doesn't, there will be thinking twice, second-guessing and all sorts of other fun numerical thought exercises.

Stephon Gilmore to New England Patriots

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Five years, $65 million, $40 million guaranteed

Did I mention that shutdown corners are expensive?

The $64 question with Stephon Gilmore is whether he is one.

The Patriots certainly think so, giving the 26-year-old a whopping $40 million in guarantees in one of the more surprising signings of free agency's first couple of days.

The former-first round pick appears to agree with that assessment, citing his ability to jam receivers at the line of scrimmage as a key to his success while speaking with reporters:

"

I think a strong part of my game is just being physical at the line of scrimmage and playing a lot of man-to-man coverage. But I'm just ready to do whatever the coaches want me to do to make the team better. I'm down for whatever challenge they want me to be in. I think me just pressing at the line of scrimmage and making plays on the football—that's the strongest point of my game.

"

On at least some level, the numbers back that claim up. Gilmore tied for third in the NFL last year, with five interceptions, and his passer rating against in 2016 was a respectable 70.6.

However, Gilmore also missed time for the fourth time in five seasons, allowed over 60 percent of the passes thrown his way to be completed and saw his ranking at Pro Football Focus nosedive from 20th among cornerbacks in 2015 to 60th last season.

Those up-and-down numbers are Gilmore in a nutshell. One week, he looks like one of the best cornerbacks in the league. The next, he takes a bad angle or gambles when he shouldn't have and gets roasted like a rotisserie chicken.

Barbecue, I think. Perhaps something in a nice garlic herb.

Given all the success the Patriots have had during the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era, the team usually gets the benefit of the doubt with deals like this.

But it isn't a slam dunk.

Russell Okung to Los Angeles Chargers

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Four years, $53 million, $25 million guaranteed

A year ago, Russell Okung gambled on himself, signing a multiyear deal with the Denver Broncos he knew was essentially a one-year, $8 million pact.

As he told ESPN.com's Eric Williams, there was a method to the madness:

"

Honestly, it's just market economics. To me, it's a lot more simple than people make it out to be. It's supply and demand. There's a scarcity of value in the market, and this year was a good year to take advantage of that. Last year was different. I was coming off of injuries and so on. But this year I was able to play myself into this position, and I thank God for it.

"

The move paid off in a huge way, as Okung just inked a four-year contract with the Los Angeles Chargers that makes the 29-year-old the highest-paid left tackle in the NFL in terms of average annual salary.

That's great for Okung and his agent (also Okung), but it may not be so great for the Bolts.

No one honestly thinks he's close to being the best left tackle in the league.

Last year marked the first time in seven NFL seasons that Okung made it through a 16-game season. And while he played over 1,000 snaps for only the second time in his career, he wasn't especially effective. Among all NFL tackles, Pro Football Focus ranked Okung 44th.

There's a reason the Broncos passed on picking up Okung's option—an option that would have paid him significantly less than what the Chargers just did.

Since finishing 10th among all tackles back in 2012 while with the Seattle Seahawks, Okung hasn't cracked the top 25 and has managed to finish inside the top 40 only once.

Much like with quarterbacks, there are two types of teams where left tackles are concerned: those who have them and those desperate to get them.

And just like at quarterback, that desperation causes them to do things that are at best risky and at worst just ill-advised.

Riley Reiff to Minnesota Vikings

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Five years, $58.75 million, $26.3 million guaranteed

There's no question the Minnesota Vikings needed to upgrade an offensive line that ranked in the bottom half of the NFL last year in both run blocking and pass protection, per Football Outsiders.

And after handing Riley Reiff just under $12 million per season to come in and man the left side of that line, the 28-year-old told Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press that he's eager to get down to it.

"I'm excited to come in here and work and be a positive impact on this team," Reiff said. "I'll come in here and do whatever the coaches ask. ... I love playing in the Black and Blue Division (NFC North). I think it fits me."

The question is just how positive an impact can Reiff make in Minnesota.

This isn't to say that Reiff is a bad player. His ranking of 52nd at the position last year, per PFF, can be attributed at least in part to moving to the right side after four years at left tackle.

But therein lies the rub. After four seasons with the Detroit Lions, they thought so much of Reiff's game that they drafted Taylor Decker and flipped Reiff to the right side.

In those four seasons in Motown, not once did Reiff crack the top 25 tackles at PFF. In his last full season on Matt Stafford's blind side, Reiff surrendered six sacks.

Reiff isn't a bad tackle, but by no stretch is he a great one, either. Given that reality, he's going to be hard-pressed to live up to his fat new salary.

Matt Kalil to Carolina Panthers

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Five years, $55.5 million, $24 million guaranteed

This is the point in this merry-go-round of matador tackles when supporters of the teams that made these signings will say these robust contracts are just the price of doing business in the NFL. Even a decent tackle will cost over $10 million per season and $20 million in guarantees.

The Vikings had to sign Riley Reiff because the Carolina Panthers signed Matt Kalil and so on and so forth.

The issue with that reasoning is this: We haven't seen anything from Kalil to date to indicate he's anything more than an average left tackle, if that.

Granted, Kalil, the younger brother of Panthers center Ryan Kalil, was once a top-five pick in the NFL draft. And Carolina general manager Dave Gettleman expressed confidence in the 27-year-old while speaking with Bryan Strickland of the team's website:

"

We went through a lengthy evaluation process, including exhaustive film study, and Matt's got everything we're looking for at the left tackle position. Matt's an all-around great player with ability as a run blocker and pass protector. He can play with power and aggressiveness and he has the toughness and competitiveness we expect from our offensive linemen. He will work with a great duo of offensive line coaches in John Matsko and Ray Brown who I know will maximize his talents. We’re just really excited about being able to add him.

"

Kalil was a top-25 performer, per Pro Football Focus, in a rookie year that saw him make the Pro Bowl. But the next year, that number fell to 43rd. Then again to 79th in 2014. Kalil rebounded to 42nd two seasons ago, but even then he allowed half a dozen sacks.

The cherry on top of that sad sundae is the hip injury that ended Kalil's season after two games in 2016.

Kalil was considered the No. 1 offensive line prospect in the 2012 draft class. The Panthers just bet over $20 million that a change of scenery and family reunion will help him recapture those past glories.

To date, however, there hasn't been a shred of evidence to indicate that's more than wishful thinking.

Kenny Britt to Cleveland Browns

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Four years, $32.5 million, $10.5 million guaranteed

The Cleveland Browns have had a pretty good offseason. The team took big steps toward bolstering the offensive line with the additions of guard Kevin Zeitler and center J.C. Tretter.

And some might call it splitting hairs to call Cleveland's four-year, $32.5 million pact with wideout Kenny Britt a "risk" given that the team can effectively get out from under it after one season and $10.5 million.

Britt, for his part, told Patrick Maks of the team's website that he knows a lot is being expected of him in 2017: "I hope the future is brighter. And it's going to be here in Cleveland. I know that for a fact. I wanted to be a part of this. I wanted to be a part of the rebuilding and what they have going on. I’m not filling in anybody’s shoes. I have my own shoes to fill to tell you the truth and walk around in."

Last year at least, Britt looked capable of backing that talk up. The 28-year-old set career highs in 2016 in both catches (68) and yardage (1,002).

It's what came before that 2016 campaign that's the issue.

Before finally breaking 1,000 yards in a season—in the eighth year of his NFL career—Britt was much more well-known for brushes with the law than he was for anything he did between the lines. He's still had more incidents involving police since entering the league than he has seasons in it.

Maybe last year was the light-bulb moment. Britt's been relatively trouble-free for some time and finally put up something resembling the numbers expected after he scored nine touchdowns all the way back in 2010.

Or perhaps all that new-found cabbage will cause a lapse into past bad habits. Britt isn't just being counted on to produce. He's being counted on to lead as the Browns' No. 1 receiver.

Therein lies the risk.

Robert Woods to Los Angeles Rams

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Five years, $39 million, $15 million guaranteed

Yes, you read that right. Robert Woods got more guaranteed money from the Los Angeles Rams than Britt got from the Browns.

As Alden Gonzalez reported for ESPN.com, The L.A. native said all the right things when he joined his new team:

"

The Rams made the trip home, and so did I. I would say my biggest thing, or how I look at my game, is as a complete receiver. A complete receiver needs to be able to play inside and outside. I think I can move all around the field. I can match up against quick corners. I can match up against big corners with speed and quickness.

"

However, after a look at Woods' career to date, those statements start to come off the rails after approximately one sentence.

In Woods' four NFL seasons, he's yet to top 65 receptions or 700 yards. His career year (65/699/4) happened back in 2014. And his arrival in La La Land means that the Rams' top two receivers, Woods and Tavon Austin, have combined in eight NFL seasons to produce exactly zero 700-yard campaigns.

Not 1,000: 700.

Sure, Woods won't turn 25 until April. And he's a bigger target in the passing game than the diminutive Austin.

But at 6'0", even Woods isn't exactly a big-bodied receiver. He isn't blazingly fast, either. And the Rams just committed significantly more in guarantees to Woods than the Browns and Washington Redskins did to Britt and Terrelle Pryor respectively.

The Rams are no doubt hoping that quarterback Jared Goff takes a big step forward in Year 2 of his NFL career. But for that to happen, Woods and Austin are going to need to do the same in Year 5 of theirs.

That's quite a few dominoes that have to fall...in order.