March Madness Bracket 2017: Upset Predictions and Updated Odds

Upsets are a staple of March Madness. 

Many will tell you upsets are the staple of the madness. Everybody loves a good underdog. Rooting for them is fun, relatable and easy. Hollywood has cashed in countless times on the sporting underdogs, and the seeding system of the bracket is a big reason March Madness is arguably the biggest sporting event each year.

Notable upset options abound in this year's bracket. Whether a mid-major was simply disrespected during the process, has a good matchup or looks unstoppable heading into a tough situation, those filling out brackets have plenty of options to weight.

The difficulty, of course, is not getting too upset-happy and picking the correct games. Below, let's look at how Las Vegas feels about the opening slate and pick a few upsets.

NCAA Men's Basketball Championship Bracket

Day 1 and Odds

Games (First Round)	Regional	Odds	Time (ET)	Network
No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Princeton	East	Notre Dame (-7)	12:15 p.m.	CBS
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 UNC-Wilmington	East	Virginia (-7.5)	12:40 p.m.	truTV
No. 4 Butler vs. No. 13 Winthrop	Midwest	Butler (-11)	1:30 p.m.	TNT
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 South Dakota State	West	Gonzaga (-23)	2 p.m.	TBS
No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 13 Bucknell	East	West Virginia (-13.5)	2:45 p.m.	CBS
No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 East Tennessee State	East	Florida (-9.5)	3:10 p.m.	truTV
No. 5 Minnesota vs. No. 12 Middle Tennessee State	Midwest	Even	4 p.m.	TNT
No. 8 Northwestern vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt	West	Vanderbilt (-1)	4:30 p.m.	TBS
No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Xavier	West	Maryland (-2)	6:50 p.m.	TNT
No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 16 Mount St. Mary's	East	Villanova (-26.5)	7:10 p.m.	CBS
No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 VCU	West	St. Mary's (-4.5)	7:20 p.m.	TBS
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 13 Vermont	Midwest	Purdue (-8.5)	7:27 p.m.	truTV
No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast	West	Florida State (-12)	9:20 p.m.	TNT
No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech	East	Wisconsin (-5.5)	9:40 p.m.	CBS
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 North Dakota	West	Arizona (-16.5)	9:50 p.m.	TBS
No. 5 Iowa State vs. No. 12 Nevada	Midwest	Iowa State (-6)	9:57 p.m	truTV

Full tournament odds available at OddsShark

Upset Predictions

No. 13 Winthrop vs. No. 4 Butler

At first pass, this looks like a cut-and-dry pick. A Top 25 team against a Big South opponent to help start the bracket? Easy pickings.

If only it were that easy.

The Butler Bulldogs are a great team, yet one can get a sense of disparity when it comes time to figure out how great. It's why ESPN's RPI ranking have them slotted 14th, yet KenPom.com has them 26th overall.

Butler's biggest problem isn't a 13th-ranked strength of schedule, but a whopping three losses outside of the RPI top 100, including a stumble at the hands of Indiana State, a program sitting 233rd in RPI.

This doesn't mean Winthrop will have an easy time—but there's certainly an opening. The Eagles also sport three sub-100 losses but went .500 overall against the RPI top 100. The dynamic Keon Johnson, who averages 22.5 points per game, leads the way, with Xavier Cooks (16.3) right behind.

As mentioned above, the Eagles love to shoot the deep ball and have won eight games in a row. Butler only shoots 36.3 percent from deep and has stumbled to a 7-5 mark over their last 12 outings, setting up a mismatch of momentum and an underdog with an advantage in quite the important area when March rolls around.

Prediction: Winthrop 65, Butler 63

No. 9 Seton Hall vs. No. 8 Arkansas

Mike Stobe/Getty Images

Seton Hall and Arkansas offer different tempos that are capable of swinging this one either way. 

The Razorbacks like to get out and run, hence ranking 25th in RPI and an adjusted offensive efficiency of 26th at KenPom. Led by Dusty Hannahs (14.6), Arkansas has four players averaging double-digit production while averaging 80 points per game.

The Pirates average seven fewer points per game and slot 44th in RPI, but they have a double-double powerhouse by the name of Angel Delgado.

Most teams have a problem slowing the junior forward, who almost casually averages 15.3 points and 13.1 rebounds per game. ESPN Stats & Info recently detailed his run of dominance:

Delgado and the Pirates did their damage this year against a 52nd-ranked strength of schedule, compared to a 58th for Arkansas. The Razorbacks are quite susceptible to an upset—Seton Hall didn't drop a game against teams outside of the RPI top 150 despite nine tries, while Arkansas went down at the hands of No. 254 Missouri in February.

If the Pirates can slow down the game and bully the Razorbacks on the board, which isn't too difficult thanks to Delgado, Arkansas will have a hard time coming out ahead.

Prediction: Seton Hall 64, Arkansas 60

No. 10 Wichita State vs. No. 7 Dayton

Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

The ranked team isn't the higher seed in this matchup, already making it one with an odd outlook.

Wichita State ranks 19th going into this one, giving the Shockers a sound argument as a team undeserving of a No. 10 slot. Fair enough, too, as the Markis McDuffie-led team sits 31st in RPI and eighth overall at KenPom, boasting adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings of 12th and 19th, respectively.

As a quick comparison, the Flyers are 28th in RPI and 35th at KenPom, with both efficiency numbers sitting outside the top 40.

Like the other upsets listed here, the Shockers won games they were supposed to win. Dayton, on the other hand, boasts three losses outside of the RPI top 100, including a 67-55 throttling at the hands of Massachusetts, ranked No. 194.

To be fair, this is one of the oddest seedings the bracket has produced in a long time. Here's SportsCenter's Scott Van Pelt explaining why it's time to respect the Shockers as a collegiate basketball power:

Indeed, the Shockers have their work cut out for them against the Flyers if they hope to change some minds in the future. But by almost any metric, they are the better team here, even averaging 82 points to the Flyers' 76. They also shoot 40.8 percent from deep, compared to Dayton's 38.7.

With a proverbial chip on the shoulder after suffering a slight at the hands of the committee, look for Wichita State to come out firing and get out to an early lead.

Prediction: Wichita State 80, Dayton 74

Stats and information courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified. Advanced metrics courtesy of ESPN.com.