NFL Draft 2017: Latest Stock Watch Through Early Free Agency
NFL prospects should feel like somebody is watching them at all times—because teams are. Every little positive or negative is part of an evaluation.
Over the past eight months, scouts dug up every ounce of possible information regarding these young men. Games have been played. All-Star events are complete. The NFL Scouting Combine came and went. pro days are ongoing. Background checks are included too.
Prospects can't become complacent. Their draft stock is always open to interpretation.
Years of great film can be brought into question by physical limitations. Medical evaluations override raw talent. Attitude separates the good from the great.
Talent evaluation is far from an exact science. That's why certain players and their profiles increase or decrease all the way until draft day.
This doesn't mean their draft status greatly varies based on a single moment—whether it's winning a national championship or an off-the-field incident. It doesn't. Teams are far more static in their evaluations. What matters is the understanding that optics play a role in a prospect's perception.
As such, a handful of players are dealing with both positive and negative repercussions based on recent occurrences.
Stock Up: Left Tackle Cam Robinson, Alabama
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Alabama's Cam Robinson is a left tackle.
No, Captain Obvious didn't take over writing duties. The Outland Trophy winner's ability to play on the blind side was questioned throughout the draft process.
Robinson does have flaws and needs to become a better technician. However, his length and athleticism project well to the offensive line's most valuable position.
At the combine, Robinson measured 6'6" and 322 pounds with 35.5-inch arms. He fits the archetype. More importantly, his movement skills in Indianapolis and during Alabama's pro day convinced teams he'll play on the blind side.
"He looked good in drills; I was told he left no doubt he can play left tackle in the NFL," NFL Media's Gil Brandt reported after the pro day.
The overall tackle class took a hit during the start of NFL free agency, when teams around the league placed far more value on the available veterans than the incoming talent.
Even so, the 21-year-old Alabama product proved a lot of doubters wrong and made a case he should be the first offensive lineman selected in April's draft.
Stock Down: Quarterback Deshaun Watson, Clemson
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How many have gone to the local county fair, strolled by the stand with a radar gun in place to see how hard a baseball can be thrown and disappointed with lackluster tosses?
Most of us likely fall into this category. No one should expect the same from an NFL quarterback prospect.
Clemson's Deshaun Watson provided a wonderful combine performance. Of all the quarterbacks in Indianapolis, he looked the most unflappable on the field and wowed teams off of it.
However, one poor performance has many discussing his legitimacy as a top prospect.
CBSSports.com's Dane Brugler reported Watson tested poorly when the quarterback's ball velocity was gauged. Watson's number (49 mph) fell well below some of the other prospects. The question everyone continues to ask is, does his performance meet a required threshold from NFL teams?
Arm strength is more important than ever. Throwing windows close so rapidly that quarterbacks need extra zip to create more room for error. Otherwise, pinpoint accuracy and exceptional anticipation become requirements.
The statistic hasn't existed long enough to draw a definitive conclusion as to whether Watson is or isn't a top prospect. It will matter a lot to some and little to others. The quarterback's play and production still speak for themselves.
A seed of doubt has been planted, though.
Stock Up: Quarterback Josh Dobbs, Tennessee
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While some of the top quarterback prospects continue to be questioned, another gains ground during the evaluation process. It's hard to imagine Tennessee's Josh Dobbs having a better offseason.
Questions about his consistency and accuracy plagued him throughout his collegiate career. He completed 61.5 percent of his passes during his time in Knoxville.
Still, he has made quite an impression in recent months.
Dobbs improved his footwork and received plenty of work from the Cleveland Browns coaching staff at the Reese's Senior Bowl. Teammate Davis Webb won the game's MVP award after being named the best quarterback performer during the practice week. Dobbs drew attention as the most improved, though.
At the combine, the 6'3", 216-pound signal-caller finished among the top five quarterbacks in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump and three-cone drill. More importantly, NFL decision-makers grew enamored with the aerospace engineer's mental capacity.
"I knew he was really smart, but I thought he really did a great job in his [combine] interviews," an NFC scouting director told NFL Media's Lance Zierlein. "He had a great feel for offensive concepts and could walk you through everything you wanted to see on the board. Accuracy is his issue; it's definitely not football intelligence."
Dobbs won't be selected among the top five or six quarterbacks, yet he's an intriguing option later in the draft.
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Stock Down: Running Back Dalvin Cook, Florida State
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Not long ago, Florida State's Dalvin Cook challenged LSU's Leonard Fournette for the title of top running back available at the 2017 NFL draft. After a woeful combine performance and multiple other problems, Cook may not even be a first-round talent.
The running back barely eclipsed the class' top offensive tackle, Utah's Garett Bolles, with his 7.27 three-cone drill and 4.53-second short shuttle. These are startling change-of-direction numbers for such a productive and successful running back.
With each passing year, metrics beyond the NFL's traditional measurables are being used more. Cook doesn't pass those, either.
According to Three Sigma Athlete's Zach Whitman, the Florida State product finished among the NFL's bottom 10 percent in SPARQ rating. Nike created SPARQ as a way to quantify an athlete's speed, power, agility, reaction and quickness. For any prospect—let alone a potential first-round running back—to fall that far down the spectrum, questions about how he translates to the next level arise.
If one poor workout were Cook's only concern, it could be overlooked. Unfortunately, it's not. His fumble rate is among the worst in this year's class, per CBSSports.com's Dane Brugler. Nagging injuries have plagued Cook's career. He's also been charged, albeit never convicted, with multiple offenses since high school.
A less talented player wouldn't even be drafted with all of these issues.
Stock Up: Fullback Sam Rogers, Virginia Tech
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A fullback's inclusion among those with increased value may seem strange. However, the perception of the position changed at the onset of free agency.
Teams around the league expressed plenty of interest in Kyle Juszczyk and Patrick DiMarco. The game's two best fullbacks signed for a combined $29.4 million in total contract value.
What separates these two, particularly Juszczyk, is the fact they're more than lead blockers. Traditional fullbacks don't warrant much attention. Those who add to both the ground and passing games develop into weapons from an unexpected source.
Virginia Tech's Sam Rogers is the top-rated fullback in this year's class.
"He's not going to measure out very well, but he's just a good football player," an AFC East regional scout told NFL Media's Lance Zierlein. "He'll probably be a demon on special teams, and I like how versatile he is."
Rogers can be used in a similar fashion to what the San Francisco 49ers expect from Juszczyk. During his time in Blacksburg, Virginia, the 231-pound back ran the ball 160 times for 683 yards and caught 60 passes for 724 yards in three seasons. He also graded as the class' best lead blocker last season with Pro Football Focus.
Only one or two fullbacks will be selected during the 2017 NFL draft. Rodgers' versatility makes him the top prospect and the type of weapon a team could use in a creative offensive scheme.
Stock Down: Wide Receiver Dede Westbrook, Oklahoma
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As much attention as teammate Joe Mixon continues to receive for a violent incident against a woman, NFL teams may take a stronger stance against Oklahoma teammate Dede Westbrook
According to the Tulsa World's Cody Stavenhagen, Westbrook was accused of two domestic violence incidents that included throwing the mother of his children to the ground, biting her arm and punching her in the face. Charges were dropped or dismissed in both instances.
"But as for me, I got in some trouble and I did some things as well, but I was never convicted of anything," Westbrook rationalized during his media session at the combine, per USA Today's Tom Pelissero. "Like, I've been to jail, but all the charges [were] dropped. I have no pending charges or anything. So, I think I'm just like you."
Those previous issues are concerning enough, yet another report from Draft Analyst's Tony Pauline added to the dismay.
"I've been told Westbrook's interviews here in Indianapolis have been horrible," Pauline wrote. "Those at the interviews say Westbrook has been guarded and seemed untruthful."
On the field, the wide receiver is the reigning Biletnikoff Award winner and a Heisman Trophy finalist. Westbrook finished his final season on campus with 80 receptions for 1,524 yards and 17 touchdowns. But trust needs to be earned.
Mixon is a legit elite talent. As such, a team will take a chance on him despite his history. Westbrook isn't the same caliber prospect.
Stock Up: LB T.J. Watt, Wisconsin
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T.J. Watt will always be J.J. Watt's little brother. There's nothing he can do about being identified with the NFL's best defensive player.
However, the younger Watt brother is a bit of an athletic freak as well and should be compared with a different family dynasty.
"He's Clay Matthews," an anonymous scout told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Bob McGinn. "Probably more explosive. Uses his hands well. He finishes things better than his brother did. I think he’s special."
Both Matthews and the younger Watt were one-year collegiate starters who came on strong as edge defenders. Like Matthews, Watt is projected as a late first-round pick. The Wisconsin product is definitely more explosive coming into the league, though.
Matthews weighed 12 fewer pounds during his time in Indianapolis. Despite posting similar numbers on bench and the 40-yard dash, Watt proved to be far more athletic in the rest of the drills.
In fact, the incoming edge defender tested among the top five linebackers during this year's combine in the vertical jump, broad jump, three-cone drill, 20-yard shuttle and 60-yard shuttle.
Watt is never going to be like his older brother, and that's OK because they present two completely different skill sets. If he develops into a player close to the caliber of Matthews, the team that drafts him will be ecstatic.
Stock Down: Cornerback Sidney Jones, Washington
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Fluke injuries happen. They're unfortunate, but it's part of being an athlete.
This reality won't make top cornerback prospect Sidney Jones feel any better after he suffered a torn Achilles tendon at Washington's Pro day, per Yahoo's Eric Edholm.
The fact Jones was under two months away from realizing his dream of becoming a first-round pick and providing for his family based on a lucrative rookie contract makes the situation absolutely heartbreaking.
Instead, he's unlikely to play during the 2017 campaign as he recuperates. As a result, Jones is expected to plummet multiple rounds during the draft.
"All these workouts have to stop before the draft," an anonymous agent told ESPN's Josina Anderson,
This point of view is an overreaction to a rare occurrence. Jones wasn't doing anything outside the norm. He injured his leg while performing basic defensive back drills. No one can account for this possibility because it can happen at any time.
Jones' injury doesn't just affect his status. The cornerback class is shaken up a bit. The Washington product was considered among the top two or three prospects at the position. For teams looking at a cornerback in the first round, they may consider another position or move down their board slightly and select another talented defensive back.
Stock Up: Safety Rudy Ford, Auburn
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A premium is placed on speed, yet the fastest safety in this year's draft class isn't perceived as a top prospect.
Auburn's Rudy Ford didn't fully participate at the NFL Scouting Combine while he continued to deal with an ankle injury that prevented him from playing at the Reese's Senior Bowl.
Ford's recovery reached the point that he could participate in the 40-yard dash at Auburn's pro day. The defensive back blazed a 4.36-second effort, according to NFL Media's Gil Brandt. He may be even faster when healthy.
"Even though I'm a consistent 4.2 guy, [Friday] was great," Ford said after his workout, per the Montgomery Advertiser's Matthew Stevens. "I was able to come back and see my boys that I came in with compete and do what we love to do. It was great."
Ford hasn't fully recovered since he wasn't capable of anything other than a straight-line run. His raw speed, however, adds to the fact he finished tied for first among safeties in Indianapolis with 20 bench press reps.
When these numbers start to come together, the term "workout warrior" comes to mind without acknowledging Ford was a three-year starter in the SEC. The Alabama native played safety and nickel corner while leading the Tigers in tackles during the 2014 and 2015 campaigns.
Ford joins the ranks of fellow defensive backs Obi Melifonwu and Kevin King as one of the top size-speed prospects in a deep secondary class. Their physical tools help provide a baseline compared to those who don't have the natural ability to succeed at the next level.
Stock Down: Cornerback Teez Tabor, Florida
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Florida cornerback Teez Tabor is trending in the wrong direction.
Once considered the top cornerback prospect in the draft, Tabor may not even be a first-round pick when it's all said and done. Don't tell him that, though.
"I feel like I'm the best overall player in the draft, not just the best cornerback," the Florida product said during his media appearance at the combine, per NFL Media's Chase Goodbread.
Tabor is a confident young man. Some might argue he borders on being cocky.
He didn't back up his statement during his combine workout.
The talented defensive back ran a pedestrian 4.62-second 40-yard dash. He didn't finish among the top corners in any of the events in which he participated. This only adds to concerns about his background and attitude.
"He's a good football player and can cover in our league, but he's also going to be a pain in the ass for whoever takes him," an AFC Southest area scout told NFL Media's Lance Zierlein.
Florida head coach Jim McElwain suspended Tabor twice in the past two seasons. He acknowledged a positive drug test during his freshman campaign, per Goodbread, and he was suspended in 2016 for fighting with a teammate.
"My past is my past, and it's in the past," Tabor told Goodbread, but it's a still a big part of his draft evaluation.
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