Ranking MLB's Top 2017 Sleeper Teams
You know the Chicago Cubs are a solid bet to repeat as world champions. You're aware the San Diego Padres have a snowball's chance in Hades.
What about the clubs on the bubble, the sleepers who could charge toward contention or slip into oblivion? It's an intriguing group full of hope, angst and what-ifs.
As the exhibition slate unfolds, let's pick the top five sleeper teams and parse them in ascending order, keeping in mind injury comebacks, offseason additions, 2016 results versus 2017 projections and, as always, a dash of gut feeling.
No. 5: Los Angeles Angels
1 of 5
Mike Trout had a 9.4 WAR in 2016, yet the Los Angeles Angels finished 12 games under .500 and 21 games out in the American League West.
Translation: Ouch.
The Halos' budget is strained to the breaking point, and their farm system is barren. At a glance, the outlook in Anaheim is bleak.
Give credit to general manager Billy Eppler, though, for making a series of low-key but impactful moves that could insert the Angels into the postseason conversation.
Danny Espinosa was an expendable piece for the Washington Nationals after the rise of Trea Turner, but he's posted 25 career defensive runs saved at second base and hit 24 home runs last season. He'll join forces with slick-fielding shortstop Andrelton Simmons to form one of the best double-play duos in baseball.
Outfielders Cameron Maybin and Ben Revere bring speed and defense, while Luis Valbuena can play around the infield and posted an .816 OPS in 2016 for the Houston Astros.
None of those players is a difference-maker by himself. They're fine complimentary pieces, however, and each will bolster the roster around Trout.
The key for Los Angeles will be the health of ace Garrett Richards, who was diagnosed with a damaged elbow ligament in May but opted for stem cell therapy over Tommy John surgery. Among the pitchers penciled into the rotation behind Richards—Matt Shoemaker, Ricky Nolasco, Tyler Skaggs and Jesse Chavez—only Shoemaker had an ERA below 4.00 last season.
If Richards takes the ball every five days and the new guys chip in, the Angels could make good on or even exceed FanGraphs' projection, which has them finishing 83-79 and just outside the playoff money.
No. 4: Arizona Diamondbacks
2 of 5
First, the bad news: Zack Greinke, the guy the Arizona Diamondbacks handed $206.5 million last winter, is having trouble hitting 90 mph with his fastball this spring.
"I'd rather it be more," Greinke said of his radar gun readings, per FanRag Sports' Tommy Stokke. "Hopefully it'll get a little better as camp goes."
That's a story to follow closely. Arizona won't go anywhere without a bounce-back season from Greinke, who won the National League ERA crown with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015 but fizzled like a soggy firework with the D-Backs in 2016.
There are reasons for optimism.
Center fielder A.J. Pollock, an All-Star and Gold Glove-winner two seasons ago, fractured his elbow last spring and wound up playing 12 regular-season games. A full season from him, as well as the addition of right-hander Taijuan Walker—who has looked dominant in the Cactus League—should boost the Snakes.
There's also a culture change afoot, with general manager Mike Hazen taking over for Dave Stewart and manager Tony Lovullo replacing Chip Hale.
That doesn't guarantee success. The NL West is a tough division, with the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants occupying the top two spots until further notice and the soon-to-be-discussed Colorado Rockies in the mix.
Another disappointing, also-ran finish is in play for Arizona, but so is a return to relevance.
No. 3: Tampa Bay Rays
3 of 5
In a division populated by big spenders (the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees) and big boppers (the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays), it's easy to forget about the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays haven't had a winning season since 2013 and have the game's third-lowest payroll, per Spotrac. Still, FanGraphs foresees them going 82-80 and finishing ahead of both Baltimore and New York.
It begins with Chris Archer, who had a down year in 2016 by his lofty standards that wasn't so bad upon closer inspection.
His 9-19 record and 4.02 ERA stink like dirty gym socks, but he struck out 233 in 201.1 innings. His 3.41 xFIP—a version of ERA with defense removed from the equation—suggests a measure of misfortune. Most encouragingly, he posted a 3.25 ERA after the All-Star break.
Add Jake Odorizzi, Blake Snell, Matt Andriese, Tommy John comeback candidate Alex Cobb and newly acquired prospect Jose De Leon, and the Rays have a deep, talent-rich rotation.
Offensively, they can't hang with their mashing AL East counterparts. But the additions of outfielder Colby Rasmus and catcher Wilson Ramos could fortify a lineup that was depleted by the trade of second baseman Logan Forsythe.
Recently, I ranked the AL East as baseball's best division. The Rays won't be able to back into a playoff spot. If they aren't in it at the trade deadline, they could jettison core pieces, including Archer.
For now, they're a fun small-market sleeper, a David among Goliaths.
.png?w=256)
No. 2: Colorado Rockies
4 of 5
We already covered the NL West hierarchy. The Dodgers are the deep-pocketed favorites. The Giants are the slightly-less-deep-pocketed top challenger. The Diamondbacks are snake-bitten (pun!) sleepers.
Where does that leave the Rockies? In a pretty darn good place.
The Rockies paced the Senior Circuit in runs, hits, OPS and a host of other offensive categories last season. They added versatile Ian Desmond to a lineup that features NL batting champion DJ LeMahieu, MVP candidate Nolan Arenado and powerful shortstop Trevor Story, whose superlative rookie season was cut short by a thumb injury.
OK, so they can hit, especially in the mile-high air of Coors Field. These Rox might also be able to pitch thanks to a rotation fronted by budding ace Jon Gray and a bullpen anchored by former All-Star Greg Holland, who is returning from Tommy John.
Oh, and they hired former pitcher, pitching coach and 2010 NL Manager of the Year Bud Black as their new skipper.
"The Rockies need a pitcher whisperer," Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post noted. "Can Black work his magic?"
If he can, Colorado will be a rock-solid wild-card contender.
No. 1: Seattle Mariners
5 of 5
The Seattle Mariners won 86 games last season and weren't eliminated from the postseason until Game 161. The "sleeper" label might be a stretch.
On the other hand, the Mariners have MLB's longest active playoff drought. It's been 15 years since Seattle played deep into October.
The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers siphon a lot of hype in the AL West. The M's are right there, though, thanks to an active offseason.
General manager Jerry Dipoto made a a flurry of moves this winter, adding outfielders Jarrod Dyson and Mitch Haniger, second baseman Jean Segura, right-hander Yovani Gallardo and left-hander Drew Smyly, among others.
The M's boast a solid offensive core of designated hitter Nelson Cruz, second baseman Robinson Cano and third baseman Kyle Seager.
The lynchpin could be ace Felix Hernandez, who is looking to rebound after an uncharacteristically mortal season. He added 17 pounds of muscle in the offseason, according to MLB.com's Joe Posnanski.
If the newcomers kick in and King Felix regains his throne, Seattle could challenge the Texas twosome for division supremacy.
"There's a different fight to Felix," Dipoto said, per Posnanski. "He's in great shape. And he's driven in a way that I think is different. I keep telling people, the demise of Felix Hernandez has been greatly exaggerated."
As he goes, so go the Mariners.
.png?w=480)
