Building a 25-and-Under MLB Super Rotation
You're an MLB general manager out for a sunset stroll on a windswept beach, and you discover an old, rusty lamp poking out of the sand.
You pick it up, rub it and—naturally—a genie emerges in a puff of colorful smoke.
Instead of offering the standard three wishes, he offers one. What's more, you can't think it over. You have to decide now.
Dazed, you blurt out the first thing that comes to mind: "I want to replace my entire starting rotation with the five best pitchers age 25 and under."
"Done," the genie replies, clapping his hands. "But, uh...here's the thing. I'm not much of a baseball fan, so, you'll have to tell me who those pitchers are."
What names do you give him?
Take a deep breath and let's explore, keeping a few things in mind:
- Experience matters: In fact, for the purposes of this exercise, we're not considering prospects. To be part of the discussion, a pitcher needs to have shed his rookie status.
- So does potential: That said, we'll also be assessing players based on what they can accomplish going forward. Stuff, makeup, durability—it's all important.
- The cutoff is July 1: Any player who turns 26 before then is off the menu.
Alright, that's enough preamble. Put down the lamp and let's do this.
Sixth Starter: Michael Fulmer, RHP, Detroit Tigers
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After winning the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 2016, Michael Fulmer seems like a slam-dunk candidate for our 25-and-under super rotation.
If the genie allowed us a sixth starter, he'd be the guy after posting a 3.06 ERA and logging 159 innings in his first season with the Detroit Tigers.
If we're quibbling, the 23-year-old wobbled down the stretch and posted a 4.76 ERA in September. That's to be expected from a rookie.
As much as anything, his exclusion stems from a desire to get some left-handed balance into an otherwise righty-dominated starting five.
Other notables: Lance McCullers, RHP, Houston Astros; Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies; Robbie Ray, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks; Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox; Joe Ross, RHP, Washington Nationals; Vincent Velasquez, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies.
No. 5 Starter: Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Julio Urias is light on experience. He's technically not a rookie, but the 20-year-old Los Angeles Dodgers hurler has a scant 82.2 big league innings to his name between the regular season and playoffs, all acquired in 2016.
He flashed ace-level stuff, however, and cranked it up as the season progressed, posting a 1.99 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 40.2 innings after the All-Star break.
Per Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said:
"The first time he came up he struggled a little bit. He went back down, and in the second half, he really hit his stride. And the aptitude he displayed in terms of learning from things that didn't work the previous outing, and making those changes on the fly, were extremely advanced.
"
The Dodgers will be careful with Urias in his first full MLB campaign. He's already their second-best southpaw after Clayton Kershaw, though, and the lone lefty in our wish-fulfilling starting five.
No. 4 Starter: Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies
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Glance at the 4.61 ERA Jon Gray posted last season and you may question his inclusion on this list.
Recall he plays his home games at Coors Field and it comes into focus.
Indeed, Gray's 3.60 FIP—a stat that accounts for factors beyond a pitcher's control—was more than a full point lower than his ERA. He also struck out 185 hitters in 168 innings with a fastball that can touch the high-90s and a wipeout slider.
If you like WAR, the 25-year-old ranked fourth among pitchers in the 25-and-under group, per FanGraphs.
"I was gaining confidence last year, but it would come and go," Gray said, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. "Sometimes I felt like I belonged out there, sometimes I didn't. I've tried to get rid of any of those old, negative thoughts. Now I think I'm ready to take the next step."
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No. 3 Starter: Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
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After showing flashes in 2014 and 2015, Aaron Sanchez came into spring training last season fighting for a rotation gig, with a move to the bullpen on the table.
So much for that.
The Toronto Blue Jays righty went 15-2 with an American League-leading 3.00 ERA, made the All-Star team and finished seventh in AL Cy Young Award balloting.
Critics can point to Sanchez's pedestrian 2.56 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which ranked 50th among qualified pitchers. Or they could note that the .264 BABIP hitters posted against him was the 14th-best mark among qualifiers. If you're searching for regression red flags among the peripherals, you can find them.
The 24-year-old's breakout was far more than smoke and mirrors, though.
He's got an electric fastball and a knee-buckling curve against which opposing batters hit .159. The stuff says ace. The results say ace. I say I agree.
No. 2 Starter: Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
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The St. Louis Cardinals' Carlos Martinez defined befuddling in 2016 (in a good way) en route to a 3.04 ERA in a career-high 195.1 innings. He did it by innovatively mixing and matching, as KMOV.com's J.J. Bailey outlined:
"Martinez weaponized variant velocity in 2016, taking speed off to increase pitch movement or pouring it on to overpower his opponent. He could finesse like Adam Wainwright or muscle up like Noah Syndergaard. It varied from start to start; sometimes from hitter to hitter.
"
Most promisingly, he posted a 2.92 ERA in September while setting calendar-month highs in innings (37) and strikeouts (37).
Now, Bailey noted, the 25-year-old is refining a curveball to add yet another weapon to his arsenal.
St. Louis is reeling from the loss of top pitching prospect Alex Reyes to Tommy John surgery. Martinez, however, appears to have put his shoulder issues behind him and offers hope for the present and future.
No. 1 Starter: Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
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The ace of our 25-and-under rotation is as obvious as a thunderbolt hurled from above.
After a scintillating rookie season in 2015, Noah Syndergaard ascended to full-on deity status in 2016, posting a 2.60 ERA and averaging 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings.
Now, the New York Mets right-hander with the Norse god nickname has added 17 pounds of muscle to his already-imposing frame with the goal of increasing velocity and stamina.
"I've always wanted to throw harder and continue to make the game easier," Syndergaard said, per James Wagner of the New York Times. "Last year, from my rookie season, my velocity jumped up. I'm always going to try to raise that kind of bar. Hopefully, it allows me to go deeper into games with more ease."
The Mets' rotation has been beset by injuries, so it's morbidly tempting to assume the 24-year-old will be next. News about his conditioning, though, mixed with his sterling results, shove those thoughts to the back burner.
For now, like all the pitchers on this list, Thor is a stud just entering his prime.
There you go, genie. Make it so.
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