ETAs for Rebuilding MLB Teams to Become Playoff-Bound
There is no in-between in Major League Baseball anymore. Teams are either going for it or they're not.
We're here to discuss ones that are not.
While most clubs around MLB will be looking to contend in 2017, others will be continuing ongoing rebuilds in some capacity or another. Depending on your definition of "rebuild," there might be 11 or 12 rebuilders out there. But we're going to focus on 10 that are obviously rebuilding.
Our goal is to determine ETAs for when they'll be ready to return to the postseason. This will require weighing several things:
- Building Blocks: What major league players do teams have to build around for the long haul?
- Farm System Strength: What prospects do teams have to call on in the future?
- Trades and the Draft: How can teams use these two things to continue to add young talent?
- Payroll Flexibility: How much will teams be able to spend when the time is right?
We'll begin with the rebuilder that's furthest away from contention and end with the one closest to contention.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 10
After they added Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to their starting rotation, you could look at the 2016 Arizona Diamondbacks and think, "This could actually work."
Instead...hoo boy.
What ensued was a 93-loss season in which everything went wrong. Then came an organizational shake-up in which former Boston Red Sox executive Mike Hazen replaced Dave Stewart at general manager. For now, he's taking a wait-and-see approach.
"This team, I think, has a lot of talent on it, and we're going to see where that takes us this year," Hazen told reporters last month. "But underneath that, we're working already on the amateur draft, the international market in finding those next Diamondback players that will be up here on the major league club."
Alas, the club's minor league system is in ruins. It's ranked by Baseball America as the No. 28 system in the league and features only one prospect (LHP Anthony Banda) in the publication's top 100. The No. 7 pick in this year's draft will only be a start toward fixing that.
So, what's at the major league level must be good. One problem is that Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock are the only true stars in the lineup. Another is that Greinke's rough 2016 season is a red flag at his age (33) and that believing in the rotation pieces behind him requires a leap of faith.
What should soon become apparent in Arizona is that the present is a lost cause and that a complete teardown and buildup is needed. The Diamondbacks are basically where the Chicago Cubs were in 2012, putting them in line to return to contention no earlier than 2020. Frankly, 2021 is the safer bet.
ETA: 2021
San Diego Padres
2 of 10
The San Diego Padres were in rough shape going into last season, and then came 94 losses and a last-place finish in the NL West.
Yet somehow, some way, things could look worse.
Although general manager A.J. Preller's reputation took a hit in 2016, he's done some good work recently. The club's farm system was Baseball America's No. 25 system last year. It's now at No. 9. Most recently, star first baseman Wil Myers was locked up for the long haul with a six-year extension.
This time last year, Myers was all alone among long-term building blocks on San Diego's major league roster. Now you can look and see him and surprise breakout star Ryan Schimpf on the infield, plus homegrown prospects at catcher (Austin Hedges) and in the outfield (Manny Margot and Hunter Renfroe).
Now all the Padres need is some pitching. For that, the bad news is that top arms like Anderson Espinoza, 2016 first-rounder Cal Quantrill, Adrian Morejon and Jacob Nix likely won't be along until 2019.
Rather than try to speed things along with another offseason bonanza, the Padres must be patient and add more young talent in the meantime.
That will ideally involve cashing in reclamation projects like Jered Weaver and Jhoulys Chacin on this summer's trade market. Then there's the draft. The Padres have the No. 3 pick this year and probably more high picks headed their way in 2018 and 2019.
The next couple of years will be rough. But the corner will be turned when the arms arrive in 2019. The Padres should be good to go a year later.
ETA: 2020
Cincinnati Reds
3 of 10
The Cincinnati Reds' rebuild could be going worse, but it could also be going better.
More than anything, what the club needed was to get enough value back in the trades of star veterans left over from better days. Looking back at the deals of Johnny Cueto, Todd Frazier, Mike Leake, Aroldis Chapman, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, it's fair to question whether they did.
That's one reason why the club's farm system went from No. 12 in Baseball America's eyes last year to No. 13 this year. There's also the reality that some prospects stayed stuck in place.
That takes care of the "could also be going better" portion of this slide. Let's switch gears to the "could be going worse" portion.
With surprise slugger Adam Duvall and speedster Jose Peraza joining Joey Votto and Billy Hamilton, the Reds have the beginnings of a solid lineup. With Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan at the top, they also have the beginnings of a solid rotation.
With enough luck, prospects will fill things out in the next two years. That should include outfielder Jesse Winker and pitchers Amir Garrett, Cody Reed and Robert Stephenson in 2017. Third baseman Nick Senzel, the club's No. 2 pick in 2016, should be along in 2018. So should pitchers Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle.
In the meantime, the Reds can keep adding. Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez and Devin Mesoraco are trade chips. They have the No. 2, No. 32 and No. 38 picks in the 2017 draft.
In all, there appears to be a ramp that will carry the Reds up through 2017 and 2018, and that leads to a door to contend in 2019.
ETA: 2019
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Minnesota Twins
4 of 10
The Minnesota Twins seemed to be nearing the finish line of their rebuild in a surprisingly strong 2015. But in retrospect, that looks like a fluke.
For a team that's been rebuilding for so long, it's concerning that the Twins are as short as they are on young building blocks. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are potential stars, and Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco are solid complementary pieces. But after them, it's a mixed bag.
The same term can be applied to their farm system. Even in ranking it at No. 11, ESPN.com's Keith Law wrote: "What they don’t have, at least anywhere at a full-season level, is a future star—a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, a middle-of-the-order bat, a potential MVP candidate, nothing quite like that."
This year's draft should help. The Twins hold the No. 1 pick as well as Nos. 35 and 37. They can also take advantage of the trade market. Among the players they can dangle this summer are Brian Dozier, Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago and possibly Joe Mauer.
In the meantime, the Twins can look to establish what young talent they do have.
That will ideally involve starting a young pitching corps with Jose Berrios and Kohl Stewart this season, with Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero and Tyler Jay to follow in 2018. On the other side of the ball, Nick Gordon, brother of Dee and son of Tom, could slide into Dozier's shoes in 2018.
So after 2015's false start, 2018 looks to be the year when the Twins will show real progress. If they can get the right kind of talent in trades and the draft this year, the next step could happen in 2019.
ETA: 2019
Atlanta Braves
5 of 10
The Atlanta Braves were trending up the last time anyone saw them, going 37-35 in the second half of 2016.
Yet they still lost 93 games. From the looks of things, this year may not be much of a step forward.
The Braves had been laser-focused on their rebuild, but there came a point last summer when they switched gears. A summer trade for Matt Kemp brought them a brand-name veteran, and this winter they added Jaime Garcia, Brandon Phillips, Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Kurt Suzuki.
The result is certainly a more interesting roster, which should keep the turnstiles at SunTrust Park busy. But it's also an aggressively mediocre roster. The Braves should realize that sometime around July and see what they can get for their veterans. It'll be back to rebuilding.
At least things are going well on that front. Just two years after Atlanta's farm system sank all the way to No. 29, Baseball America ranks it as the No. 1 system in baseball.
It's led by shortstop Dansby Swanson, who's ready to be a lineup cornerstone alongside Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte. Later in the year, Ozzie Albies could line up next to Swanson at second base, and Sean Newcomb should join Julio Teheran, Aaron Blair, Mike Foltynewicz and Aaron Blair in the rotation.
Other top talents in Atlanta's system—namely outfielder Ronald Acuna and pitchers Mike Soroka and Kolby Allard—will be along in 2018. Once they arrive, a legit sign of life will take place.
The Braves could then use that as an excuse to add veteran talent via free agency and trades. Then things will really be looking up.
ETA: 2019
Milwaukee Brewers
6 of 10
How do you lose 89 games and still have a good season? Let the Milwaukee Brewers demonstrate.
For starters, 89 losses probably weren't as bad as many were expecting from them last season. Among the contributing factors were Ryan Braun's best season in years and eye-opening performances from Jonathan Villar and Keon Broxton on offense and Junior Guerra and Zach Davies on the mound.
The Brewers can look forward to 2017 knowing that all of them will still be around. Elsewhere, they'll see what former top prospect Orlando Arcia can do in a full season at shortstop and what Eric Thames does at first base following his awakening as a slugger in Korea.
These are solid reasons to have hopes for Milwaukee. And then you get into what they have down on the farm.
Baseball America ranked the Brewers' system in the top 10 for the second year in a row. They helped themselves by trading for outfielder Lewis Brinson and right-hander Luis Ortiz last summer. They also used the No. 5 pick in the draft on high-upside outfielder Corey Ray. Left-hander Josh Hader, meanwhile, established himself as one of the top southpaws in the minors last season.
Brinson and Hader should be along sometime this season. Ray, Ortiz and second baseman Isan Diaz should be ready next season. The Brewers will look like up-and-comers then and be ready for the next step in 2019.
ETA: 2019
Philadelphia Phillies
7 of 10
The Philadelphia Phillies started strong in 2016, signaling that their rebuild was nearing its end.
It was all a ruse. They went on to lose 91 games. Not only that, but prospects who might have arrived to help—namely shortstop J.P. Crawford and outfielder Nick Williams—ran into reality checks in the minors.
Still, the rebuild is generally headed in the right direction.
If nothing else, the trio of Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez is the start of a good young pitching staff. On offense, Odubel Herrera cemented himself as a star in 2016. Cesar Hernandez looks like a keeper as well. Maikel Franco and Tommy Joseph at least have power to offer.
Now in 2017, the Phillies should strike a balance between harvesting prospects from their system while continuing to add to it.
Crawford and Williams should emerge at some point, as should power-hitting catcher Jorge Alfaro. In June, the Phillies will enjoy the No. 8 pick in the draft. Come July, veterans like Howie Kendrick, Michael Saunders, Clay Buchholz, Jeremy Hellickson and Pat Neshek will be trade bait.
The Phillies should be close enough to contention after 2017 that they could go all-in on acquiring veterans for 2018. But they're more likely to do that the following winter.
There will be a ton of talent available in free agency after 2019. With only Herrera's cheap extension on their books for 2019 and after, the Phillies will have more than enough spending power to help themselves.
Like that, they'll have made a clear statement for 2019: We're back.
ETA: 2019
Chicago White Sox
8 of 10
The Chicago White Sox had enough good pieces to at least be respectable in 2017. But to aim higher, they knew they had to blow it up.
All it took was two trades. Dealing Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox brought back second baseman Yoan Moncada and right-hander Michael Kopech. Sending Adam Eaton to the Washington Nationals brought back right-handers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez.
Moncada is ranked by Baseball America as the No. 2 prospect in baseball. Giolito, Lopez and Kopech are bunched together at No. 25, No. 31 and No. 32, respectively. With solid prospects to be found elsewhere, it's no wonder the whole thing is now a top-five system.
The White Sox likely aren't done. Jose Quintana is the big trade chip they can cash in this summer. Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Melky Cabrera and possibly Jose Abreu are the others.
If those players do indeed leave, there will be plenty of room for Moncada, Giolito and Lopez to get some on-the-job training. The following season, the White Sox should call on Kopech and catcher Zack Collins, the club's No. 10 pick from the 2016 draft.
Then it'll be time for the club's checkbook to open.
"The 2018 and 2019 free-agent classes are stacked," general manager Rick Hahn said in February. "A number of players will command nine-figure contracts. ... We know spending is the final piece of all this. When we get there, we expect the resources to be there."
The 2020 White Sox may be the better team, but the 2019 White Sox should be good enough.
ETA: 2019
New York Yankees
9 of 10
The White Sox deserve their credit, but they were really just following the New York Yankees' lead.
It was last summer that the Yankees finally acknowledged they were overdue for a rebuild. Out went Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Carlos Beltran and Ivan Nova. In came a haul of prospects highlighted by shortstop Gleyber Torres, outfielder Clint Frazier and left-hander Justus Sheffield.
What had been a middle-of-the-road system is now Baseball America's No. 2 system. And the Yankees are positioned to keep adding to it. They'll pick at No. 16 in June and could dangle Matt Holliday, Chris Carter, Michael Pineda and others in July.
In the meantime, they'll get to work establishing as much young talent as they can.
Gary Sanchez, who finished second in the 2016 Rookie of the Year voting despite playing in only 53 games, is set behind the plate. Greg Bird, who's back from shoulder surgery, is set at first base. Aaron Judge is in right field. Luis Severino could land in the rotation or the bullpen. Later in the summer, Frazier could take over in left field or center field.
In 2018, Torres could come along and supplant Didi Gregorius at shortstop. Jorge Mateo could do the same to Starlin Castro at second base. Sheffield and James Kaprielian, the club's No. 16 pick in the 2015 draft, should break into the rotation.
With a solid young core in place, there will be only one thing for the Yankees to do after 2018: spend. The talent will be there, and they'll have more than enough money to buy what they need.
ETA: 2019
Colorado Rockies
10 of 10
It's hard to not see the Colorado Rockies as contenders right now.
Although it produced only 75 wins, their 2016 season contained all sorts of goodies. Breaking them down requires bullet points:
- Nolan Arenado led the NL in homers and total bases for a second straight year.
- DJ LeMahieu won the NL batting title.
- Trevor Story emerged from obscurity to become a power-hitting shortstop.
- David Dahl re-emerged as a prospect and produced an .859 OPS in the majors.
- Jon Gray, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Chatwood and Chad Bettis were all above-average starters.
That's a lot of positives for one season. The Rockies decided to run with them this offseason, signing Ian Desmond to play first base and Greg Holland to be their closer.
You can now size up the Rockies and be impressed. Even by their standards, they have a formidable lineup. Their starting rotation has some keepers. If Holland, Adam Ottavino and Jake McGee stay healthy, they could also have a dominant bullpen trio.
However, the projections at Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs still don't see it. That gets at the reality that there are a few "maybes" at play with Colorado's contention chances. Elsewhere in the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants don't have those.
The Rockies don't need to get it done this year, though.
What they have is good, and they can draw more help from their minor league system. Pitchers Jeff Hoffman, Kyle Freeland and German Marquez should appear in 2017. There could be a spot for Brendan Rodgers, the club's top hitting prospect, on the 2018 Rockies.
Consider this a warning.
ETA: 2018
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Payroll data courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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