Spring Training 2017: Ranking All 6 MLB Divisions from Best to Worst
If you like parity, this is a good time to be a baseball fan. Aside from a few unambiguous rebuilds, mostly in the National League, every team has at least a puncher's chance of playing into October.
We're in the initial days of spring training, but it's not too early to run through the six divisions and see how they stack up.
Throughout these rankings, I'll be referencing FanGraphs' projected 2017 standings. To be clear, I'm using them as a starting point, not a final arbiter.
Depth matters, meaning divisions with contenders top to bottom get bonus points. But a couple of high-level franchises with legitimate World Series aspirations can buoy a bottom feeder or two.
We'll start with the top division and work our way down from there.
1. AL East
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FanGraphs' Projected Standings
Boston Red Sox (93-69)
Toronto Blue Jays (86-76)
Tampa Bay Rays (82-80)
Baltimore Orioles (81-81)
New York Yankees (81-81)
Overview
The Boston Red Sox lost franchise icon David Ortiz to retirement, but they have added ace left-hander Chris Sale via trade.
With a stacked starting rotation and an offense boosted by the new Killer B's—right fielder Mookie Betts, center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., left fielder Andrew Benintendi and shortstop Xander Bogaerts—they're the favorites to repeat as division champions.
After that, it's a mishmash of flawed-but-credible contenders.
The Toronto Blue Jays saw slugger Edwin Encarnacion bolt via free agency, but they could make a third straight playoff run behind a deep rotation and third baseman Josh Donaldson, who has finished among the top four in American League MVP balloting three of the last four years and won the award in 2015.
The small-market Tampa Bay Rays held on to top arms Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi and are an easy-to-root-for sleeper pick.
The Baltimore Orioles have questions in the rotation, especially with Chris Tillman battling shoulder issues. At the same time, they've got a stout bullpen and a muscle-flexing lineup that paced baseball in home runs last season.
The New York Yankees, likewise, have rotation concerns behind ace Masahiro Tanaka. If budding hitters such as catcher Gary Sanchez and right fielder Aaron Judge continue their ascent, however, the Yanks' youth movement could keep them in the hunt.
"We are going to work hard to bring a championship to New York," Sanchez told me in November, and it sounded like he meant it.
2. AL West
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FanGraphs' Projected Standings
Houston Astros (91-71)
Los Angeles Angels (83-79)
Seattle Mariners (83-79)
Texas Rangers (83-79)
Oakland Athletics (79-83)
Overview
The AL West is an intriguing, confounding division, with contenders top to bottom and no clear favorite.
The Houston Astros are probably the horse to bet on after adding veterans Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick and Brian McCann to a talented lineup that includes the all-world keystone combo of Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa.
The 'Stros didn't bolster their rotation, however, and are counting on a comeback from left-hander Dallas Keuchel, who battled shoulder issues and posted a 4.55 ERA one season after winning an AL Cy Young Award.
The Los Angeles Angels made some ancillary additions around reigning AL MVP Mike Trout and should be improved, as MLB.com's Maria Guardado argued. They've got a potentially wobbly rotation, however, especially if Garrett Richards' balky elbow gives out.
The Seattle Mariners were one of the offseason's most active teams, making a flurry of trades to reshuffle the deck. They'll be in the mix, but only if ace Felix Hernandez regains his throne after an uncharacteristically uneven season.
The Texas Rangers aren't getting a lot of love despite winning two straight division titles. If the one-two pitching punch of Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish holds up, however, Texas has enough offense to make it three in a row.
Even the easy-to-overlook Oakland A's, who have finished 20 or more games out each of the last two years, could slip into the picture, particularly if right-hander Sonny Gray regains the form that earned him a top-three AL Cy Young finish in 2015.
3. NL West
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FanGraphs' Projected Standings
Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68)
San Francisco Giants (87-75)
Colorado Rockies (78-84)
Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86)
San Diego Padres (65-97)
Overview
The Los Angeles Dodgers are in line to win their fifth straight NL West crown. The bullpen is a plus with the return of All-Star closer Kenley Jansen. The lineup is deep and balanced, and Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the solar system until further notice.
There are chinks in the armor, including uncertainty at the back of the rotation and a jumble in the outfield. The Dodgers are an elite team, however, even if their best-record-in-baseball projection feels a tad bullish.
If anyone challenges L.A. for division supremacy, it'll be its archrival, the San Francisco Giants. After watching its even-year magic end in a division-series bullpen meltdown against the Chicago Cubs, San Francisco inked elite closer Mark Melancon.
The Giants are counting on lesser in-house options to plug holes in left field and at third base, but with their homegrown position-player foundation and Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto forming a deadly lefty-righty duo, they'll be formidable.
Lurking behind the top two are the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks, both of whom could make noise.
The Rockies have one of the game's best offenses, even allowing for the Coors Field bump, and they have assembled a promising rotation that could hold its own at high altitude.
The D-Backs, meanwhile, are banking on comebacks from center fielder A.J. Pollock (elbow injury) and $206.5 million man Zack Greinke (massive post-payday letdown), along with additions such as right-hander Taijuan Walker.
Only the San Diego Padres, who are finally committing to a rebuild, have no chance of sniffing the playoffs.
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4. NL Central
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FanGraphs' Projected Standings
Chicago Cubs (95-67)
St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)
Pittsburgh Pirates (82-80)
Cincinnati Reds (70-92)
Milwaukee Brewers (69-93)
Overview
If top-heavy divisions are your thing, you'll dig the NL Central.
The Chicago Cubs are the most complete team in either league, with young stars littered across the diamond, a well-stocked rotation, a stalwart bullpen and the best defense around.
They may not repeat as MLB champions, but they're as close to a flawless franchise as you'll find.
The St. Louis Cardinals are reeling from the loss of burgeoning ace Alex Reyes to Tommy John surgery. The Cards made some savvy additions, however, including center fielder Dexter Fowler, and they should extend their impressive streak of nine consecutive winning seasons.
The Pittsburgh Pirates fell below .500 after three straight postseason berths. They're a threat to get back, however, particularly if Gerrit Cole returns to his All-Star, top-five Cy Young form from 2015 and 2013 NL MVP Andrew McCutchen enjoys a rebirth with a move from center to right field.
After that, the fall is precipitous.
The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers have exciting young pieces, but neither is within shouting distance of contention. Expect the Central's top three teams to feed on them like Bluto Blutarsky in a college cafeteria.
5. NL East
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FanGraphs' Projected Standings
Washington Nationals (91-71)
New York Mets (85-77)
Miami Marlins (78-84)
Atlanta Braves (73-89)
Philadelphia Phillies (71-91)
Overview
The Washington Nationals are nominal favorites to defend their division title. There are questions, though.
Can Stephen Strasburg stay healthy? Can Bryce Harper regain his MVP mojo? Will the bullpen function without an established closer?
If the Nats stumble, the New York Mets could be waiting. After winning the pennant in 2015, New York's rotation was beset by injuries in 2016, and the team wound up losing the NL Wild Card Game to San Francisco.
Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz all underwent surgery. Assuming they recover, they'll join beefed up Noah Syndergaard to reform a superlative rotation and vault the Mets back to elite status, even with an offense that could be thin behind masher Yoenis Cespedes.
The Miami Marlins are a bubble team in the truest sense. Their offense can be excellent if Giancarlo Stanton stays healthy (a big "if"). The starting pitching is suspect after the heart-wrenching loss of Jose Fernandez, however, and the looming possibility the team could be sold may ratchet up the dysfunction in South Beach.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are in a curious place, still rebuilding but with enough promising youngsters and veteran pieces to be better than expected.
The NL East might be MLB's most mutable division. If everything breaks right, it could be deceptively deep. For now, there's enough uncertainty to nudge it down the rankings.
6. AL Central
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FanGraphs' Projected Standings
Cleveland Indians (92-70)
Detroit Tigers (81-81)
Kansas City Royals (75-87)
Minnesota Twins (74-88)
Chicago White Sox (69-93)
Overview
After pushing to Game 7 of the World Series despite key injuries, the Cleveland Indians are again the class of the AL Central.
Ace Corey Kluber headlines a rotation that will benefit from the return of Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, neither of whom pitched in the 2016 postseason.
On offense, the Tribe is hoping for outfielder Michael Brantley to overcome the shoulder issues that have plagued him, but they got insurance by signing Encarnacion and his 40-homer pop.
Add a bullpen fronted by closer Cody Allen and super-reliever Andrew Miller, and you're looking at the Junior Circuit favorites.
After that...meh.
The Detroit Tigers chose not to sell over the winter and will go for it with a veteran cast that includes Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Justin Verlander.
The Tigers, though, have a shaky bullpen and could be undone by injuries to any of their aging stars.
Like Detroit, the Kansas City Royals eschewed a rebuild and opted for one more run. An array of key players—Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas—from the club's 2015 title team will be free agents next winter.
They could defy the projections and rise to the top, but a so-so rotation hurt by the tragic loss of Yordano Ventura and a bullpen hobbled by the departure of closer Wade Davis via trade make that a coin toss at best.
The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox boast some exciting young players, but they're the only teams in the AL with virtually zero chance to contend.
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