NCAA Tournament 2017: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams at Week 17
Several Big Ten bubble teams have played their way comfortably into the NCAA tournament field in the past week, but the one team trying to break a tournament drought of nearly eight decades was not one of them.
At the end of January, some college basketball analysts were foolhardy enough to declare Northwestern a lock to go dancing. Now at the end of February, the Wildcats are one of the bubbliest teams in the entire country.
Using Sunday night's projected bracket as a loose guide for who is and isn't on the bubble, these are the up-in-the-air teams that have moved up or down the most since our Feb. 22 bubble stock watch.
We normally go an entire week between updates, but we wanted to get one more in before the calendar flips to March. Despite two fewer days to work with, it wasn't any harder to find a plethora of teams that either helped or hurt their chances.
Be sure to note this isn't meant to cover every squad on the bubble. For instance, California is smack dab on the cut line, but its only game since the last stock watch was a home win over Oregon State—which is putting the finishing touches on what might be the worst season by a major-conference team in my lifetime. That non-loss did nothing to help Cal's case for a bid.
We're only looking for the teams that have moved the needle with their recent results.
Stock Up: Rhode Island Rams
1 of 10
Computer Resume: 19-9, RPI: 44, KP: 53, SOS: 54
Recent Games: W 69-59 vs. VCU
Position in Monday's Bracket: First Five Out
It's important to keep in mind at this point in the year that each game is less than four percent of a team's total resume. Acing one quiz does not make up for an entire semester of failing grades, nor does one bad loss undo three months' worth of solid play.
At the same time, if you're hovering on the pass/fail border, one result can make a world of difference. And that's where Rhode Island's marquee win over VCU falls.
Prior to that game, the Rams had just one RPI Top 50 win and a mere two wins against the RPI Top 90—and they both came more than three months ago. At least the one quality victory (neutral court vs. RPI No. 14 Cincinnati) was a great one, but it wasn't nearly enough to make up for home losses to La Salle and Fordham.
Now that the Rams have two RPI Top 25 wins, they're back in the conversation for a bid. But they still need to help themselves and need to get some help from others.
As far as what Rhode Island can control is concerned, it must win remaining games against Saint Joseph's and Davidson and might need to pick up another win over either Dayton or VCU in the A-10 semifinals. What's out of Rhode Island's control is the need for continued success of teams the Rams played early in the season.
They lost road games to Valparaiso, Providence and Houston, but those losses don't look too bad with all three of those teams currently residing in the RPI 50-65 range. They also won a game against RPI No. 58 Bucknell, which might look even better if the Bison win the Patriot League tournament. If any of those teams falls apart, though, it would be bad news for the Rams—but they're battling Providence and Houston for those final few spots in the field, which makes for a rooting dilemma.
Stock Down: USC Trojans
2 of 10
Computer Resume: 21-8, RPI: 38, KP: 68, SOS: 61
Recent Games: L 77-90 at Arizona; L 82-83 at Arizona State
Position in Monday's Bracket: First Five Out
That whole thing from the previous slide about one February result occasionally meaning a lot to a team hovering on the bubble? It also applies to USC and its Sunday night loss to Arizona State.
The Trojans entered the weekend with two great wins (home games against SMU and UCLA) and not a whole lot else. They were 2-6 against the RPI Top 70 and also had a relatively ugly 22-point loss to Utah (RPI: 82).
In terms of winning percentage against quality teams, Clemson (6-11 vs. RPI Top 70) has been more reliable than USC. The Tigers just had the misfortune of playing more than twice as many games against that caliber of opponent.
But prior to Sunday night, at least the Trojans didn't have any terrible losses. That was enough to keep them afloat in a year when virtually every bubble team has at least a dozen losses.
Despite shooting better than 70 percent from inside the arc and 42.9 percent beyond it, they lost by one to Arizona State—which entered the game with a 4-16 record against the RPI Top 200. Defense has been a major problem for the Trojans all season long, but it has been especially awful lately. During their current four-game losing streak, they have allowed 356 points on 285 possessions (125 points per 100 possessions).
USC still has a strong RPI, but an 8-8 record in the Pac-12 with a nonconference SOS rank of 163 is not a good combination. Moreover, remaining home games against Washington and Washington State will hurt USC's RPI, even if they win both games in blowout fashion.
Should they win both games and avoid losing to either Oregon State or Washington in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament, it might be enough to get in. But it also might set up a California vs. USC quarterfinal in which the winner makes the NCAA tournament and the loser sweats like hell until Selection Sunday.
Stock Up: Georgia Bulldogs
3 of 10
Computer Resume: 16-12, RPI: 56, KP: 52, SOS: 22
Recent Games: W 60-55 at Alabama; W 82-80 vs. LSU
Position in Monday's Bracket: Not Mentioned
As has been the case in each of the past three years, I cannot understand how Georgia keeps hanging around the bubble. The Bulldogs don't beat anyone good, they always lose at least a dozen games and have a couple of bad losses, yet they just won't go away.
Case in point, they're 1-8 against teams currently projected to make the tournament, and that one win came against one of the bubbliest teams in the country: Vanderbilt. But they have 12 total losses, which means they've also lost four times to teams not projected to dance (Clemson, Alabama, Texas A&M and Oakland).
Lo and behold, Georgia resides just outside the top 50 on both RPI and KenPom.com, possibly a nice run in the SEC tournament away from reaching the NCAA tournament.
Here's a fun fact about the Dawgs: Their last RPI Top 45 win came more than five years ago on Feb. 25, 2012 against Florida.
But I digress, because this is a good team that can't seem to get over the hump against quality foes. Save for an odd 20-point home loss to Alabama, each of Georgia's losses has come by a margin of 12 points or fewer. The Bulldogs went 0-6 against Kentucky, Florida and South Carolina but forced overtime in two of the road games and lost by one bucket in the third.
They have won four of their last five games, including decent road wins over Tennessee and Alabama. However, that run only gets them back to .500 in a league that isn't sending half of its teams to the NCAA tournament. Georgia must win remaining games against Auburn and Arkansas to have any hope in the SEC tournament of playing its way into an at-large bid.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
Stock Down: The Big 12 Bubble
4 of 10
Kansas State Wildcats: 17-12; RPI: 68; L 51-81 at Oklahoma; Not Mentioned in Monday's Bracket
TCU Horned Frogs: 16-12; RPI: 60; L 60-61 vs. West Virginia; First Five Out
Texas Tech Red Raiders: 17-12; RPI: 100; L 63-80 at Oklahoma State; Not Mentioned
After three consecutive years of sending seven teams to the NCAA tournament, the Big 12 is suddenly shaping up to be a five-bid league.
It didn't feel that way for most of the season. Aside from Oklahoma and Texas, every team in this league looked like a strong tournament candidate at some point in the not-so-distant past. But the last five weeks have not been kind to the three Big 12 squads that went a combined 1-2 against the RPI Top 65 in nonconference play.
Kansas State is 2-8 in its last 10 games and saved the worst for last. The Wildcats were blasted by a 30-point margin against Oklahoma this past Saturday, all but ending any hope of reaching the NCAA tournament. They do have a few great wins over Baylor, West Virginia and Oklahoma State, but that's all she wrote. A road win over Colorado State (RPI: 80) is their only other victory against the RPI Top 140. With a 6-10 conference record and nonconference SOS rank of 236, they need a few more quality wins in the Big 12 tournament.
Speaking of horrible nonconference schedules, Texas Tech's ranks 332nd. Not good for a Red Raiders team that now has a 5-11 record in Big 12 play. A lot of those losses were nail-biters, but there have simply been too many of them. Even with the wins over Baylor and West Virginia, Texas Tech's computer profile is so bad that it probably needs to win the Big 12 tournament to dance.
Of the bunch, TCU has the best chance of making the tournament, but it's not a good one. Following a last-second home loss to West Virginia, the Horned Frogs have dropped five in a row to fall to 6-10 in conference play. The November win over Illinois State is holding up nicely, but going 1-9 against the Big 12's likely tournament teams wasn't the best idea. At least they don't have any losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100, but they need to win remaining games against Kansas State and Oklahoma before at least knocking off the No. 3 seed in the conference tourney.
Stock Up: The Michigans
5 of 10
Michigan Wolverines: 19-10; RPI: 46; W 82-70 vs. Purdue; No. 8 seed in Monday's bracket
Michigan State Spartans: 18-11; RPI: 42; W 88-72 vs. Nebraska; W 84-74 vs. Wisconsin; No. 9 seed
It's weird that there are only a handful of bubble teams playing their way comfortably into the field, but two of them just so happen to be in-state rivals.
Michigan has scored a pair of huge wins in the past two weeks, winning home games against Wisconsin and Purdue. Led by a monster first-half performance from Moritz Wagner, the Wolverines beat the tar out of the Boilermakers. Purdue made the final margin a little more respectable toward the end, but this was a 22-point blowout late in the second half.
These Wolverines are one of the most hot-and-cold teams in the country. They were stifled offensively in losses to South Carolina, Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan State, but for about one-third of their games, they have set the nets on fire. Now that they're all but locked into the NCAA tournament, this is a middling seed that no coach wants to try to defend.
Meanwhile in East Lansing, Michigan State has won six of its last eight, including Sunday's much-needed win over Wisconsin. It took a long time for this highly touted freshman class to put it all together, but we're starting to see the version of Michigan State that was expected to be a top 15 team in the preseason.
Nick Ward was an absolute stud this week, tallying 42 points and 18 rebounds in just 43 minutes. Miles Bridges scored at least 13 points for the 11th and 12th consecutive times. And Cassius Winston had another great week as perhaps the most under-appreciated freshman point guard in college basketball history.
As long as they win one of their final two regular-season games (at Illinois; at Maryland), the Spartans will be dancing for the 20th consecutive year. And if they do end up with a No. 8/9 seed, they are going to be one heck of a brutal second-round opponent for some poor No. 1 seed—on par with Wichita State drawing Kentucky in the 2014 round of 32.
Stock Down: Xavier Musketeers
6 of 10
Computer Resume: 18-11, RPI: 26, KP: 39, SOS: 6
Recent Games: L 79-88 vs. Butler
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 10 Seed
Once ranked as high as No. 7 in the AP Top 25, Xavier is now clinging for dear life to the bubble.
Because of their RPI and SOS, the Musketeers are still in relatively good shape. But if they lose either of their remaining regular-season games against Marquette and DePaul, that could be a different story.
Injuries and suspensions have played a huge part in their struggles. Myles Davis was expected to be the veteran leader, but he only scored two points before leaving the team. Xavier's best NBA prospect, Edmond Sumner, tore his ACL in late January. Trevon Bluiett missed two games against Marquette and Providence that turned out to be ugly losses.
Regardless of the circumstances, they currently have just three RPI Top 50 wins, and two of those—home games against No. 45 Wake Forest and No. 49 Seton Hall—hardly even qualify as quality wins. Heck, the road win over Georgetown and neutral-court win over Clemson are arguably more impressive.
The lack of marquee victories was fine when they were 18-6. After five consecutive losses, though, things are getting dicey.
Defense has been a major problem for Xavier. Of its last 16 opponents, 14 have averaged better than one point per possession. The two exceptions were Creighton scoring 72 points in a 73-possession game in which Maurice Watson Jr. tore his ACL and lowly DePaul scoring 61 in a 68-possession game. On average, the Musketeers have allowed 112 points per 100 possessions over the past two months, including allowing Butler to score at will (129 points per 100 possessions) this past Saturday.
Wednesday's game against Marquette—which ranks sixth in the nation in effective field-goal percentage—should be a high-scoring affair between two bubble teams in desperate need of a win.
Stock Up: Minor Conference Juggernauts
7 of 10
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: 24-4; RPI: 29; KP: 44; SOS: 123; NC SOS: 14
UNC Wilmington Seahawks: 24-5; RPI: 37; KP: 58; SOS: 141; NC SOS: 92
Vermont Catamounts: 25-5; RPI: 47; KP: 69; SOS: 167; NC SOS: 105
Princeton Tigers: 18-6; RPI: 53; KP: 59; SOS: 151; NC SOS: 71
Texas-Arlington Mavericks: 20-6; RPI: 34; KP: 73; SOS: 134; NC SOS: 43
Belmont Bruins; 21-5; RPI: 58; KP: 84; SOS: 199; NC SOS: 84
Monmouth Hawks: 26-5; RPI: 41; KP: 79; SOS: 166; NC SOS: 116
If you're as fed up with hearing about the 13-loss bubble teams as Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel is, here are the seven minor-conference teams worth keeping an eye on for the next 13 days.
Analysts like Thamel are quick to point out that minor conferences were screwed on Selection Sunday 2016, but the inconvenient truth is they screwed themselves. When Monmouth, Saint Mary's, San Diego State, Hofstra and Valparaiso each failed to win their respective conference tournaments, it created a logjam on the bubble.
If just one or two of those teams had been vying for an at-large bid, it/they might have gotten in ahead of Tulsa, Michigan or Vanderbilt. But there wasn't nearly enough room for all five of them, and there wasn't one team in that group that clearly stood out as superior to the others. Thus, they were all left out.
So, how will these seven teams fare in their conference tournaments after going a combined 103-10 in regular-season conference play?
They each have much better records and RPI rankings than bubble teams like Marquette, Syracuse, Indiana and Georgia Tech, but one more bad loss coupled with a few quality wins by those major-conference teams would even the playing field.
As things currently stand, though, these minor-conference juggernauts are benefiting from chaos around the bubble. While teams like TCU and USC rack up their umpteenth consecutive losses, Vermont and Monmouth have won a combined 34 straight games.
As long as we're not forced to try to find room for all seven of them, we like each of these minor-conference teams' chances of getting an at-large bid, if necessary.
Stock Down: Northwestern Wildcats
8 of 10
Computer Resume: 20-9, RPI: 50, KP: 36, SOS: 64
Recent Games: L 62-63 at Indiana
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 9 Seed
Northwestern fans have run the gamut of emotion for a bubble team, going from "Is this the year?" to "It's going to be the year!" to "Oh no! We're going to blow it!"
Following an 18-4 start with wins over Dayton, Wake Forest, Indiana and Ohio State and no bad losses, everything was coming up Wildcats. All they had to do was win three or four of their final nine regular-season games and they would have been in great shape. Considering three of those nine games came against Illinois (twice) and Rutgers, that seemed simple enough.
Instead, Northwestern has lost five of its last seven—including getting swept by the Illini—and has slipped into the danger zone after the most recent loss to Indiana.
The sad thing is the Wildcats had that game in the bag multiple times. They led by a dozen in the first half before allowing the Hoosiers to enter the intermission on a 22-0 run. They quickly fought back and led by seven with 77 seconds remaining, but they lost by one thanks to a Thomas Bryant and-1 with two seconds to go.
It was the type of heartbreaking loss Northwestern fans have grown accustomed to seeing over the past few years, but familiarity didn't make the pill any easier to swallow. The Wildcats are still one regular-season win away from clinching a bid, but now it needs to come at home against either Michigan or Purdue.
Lose both and they'll likely be the No. 8 seed in the Big Ten tournament, where they would need to beat No. 1 seed Purdue in the quarterfinals to get back into the field.
Stock Up: Virginia Tech Hokies
9 of 10
Computer Resume: 21-8, RPI: 39, KP: 42, SOS: 67
Recent Games: W 91-75 at Boston College; W 66-61 vs. Miami
Position in Monday's Bracket: No. 10 Seed
One of the best-kept secrets on the bubble was that Virginia Tech wasn't a lock for the NCAA tournament until tonight. We've spent so much time fussing over the sheer number of losses suffered by ACC bubble teams like Clemson, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Wake Forest that Virginia Tech's mediocre resume never received the scrutiny it deserved.
Seven days ago, the Hokies were 18-8 overall and 7-7 in ACC play. They had two great home wins over Duke and Virginia, but that was about it. (Since then, the road win over Michigan has become an RPI Top 50 victory, but it wasn't at the time.) With a nonconference SOS that currently ranks 283rd in the nation, the Hokies were possibly going to need to win three of their final four regular-season games.
They delivered. After consecutive wins over Clemson, Boston College and Miami, Virginia Tech is a lock for the Big Dance. Saturday's game against Wake Forest is simply an opportunity for the Hokies to improve their seed while eliminating the Demon Deacons from the bubble.
But enough about this team's resume, because I want to point out the absurd hot streak that JUCO transfer Ty Outlaw is on right now.
He redshirted last year due to a heart condition and didn't play a ton (12.3 minutes, 3.9 points per game) for the first three months of this season. But when the Hokies lost Chris Clarke to a torn ACL earlier this month, they were left with little choice but to give Outlaw all the playing time he can handle.
Turns out Buzz Williams had one heck of an ace up his sleeve. Outlaw has averaged 36.8 minutes and 16.8 points over his last four games while shooting 20-of-26 from three-point range. You read that right. 20-of-26. That's 76.9 percent. I don't care if it's only four games; that's incredible. And in Monday night's win over Miami, he had a career-high 24 points on 8-of-10 from downtown.
With Outlaw leading the way, the entire team is shooting 51-of-86 (59.3 percent) from downtown over the last four games. Don't be shocked if the Hokies shoot their way to a deep run in the ACC and/or NCAA tournament.
Stock Down: Alabama Crimson Tide
10 of 10
Computer Resume: 16-12, RPI: 96, KP: 67, SOS: 69
Recent Games: L 55-60 vs. Georgia; L 53-56 at Texas A&M
Position in Monday's Bracket: Not Mentioned
The RPI is rather dreadful now, but Alabama was in decent shape less than one week ago.
Prior to these painfully low-scoring affairs against Georgia and Texas A&M, the Crimson Tide were 16-10 overall and 9-5 in the SEC. They had road wins over South Carolina and Georgia, home wins over Vanderbilt and Arkansas State and only a couple of bad losses (at Texas; swept by Auburn).
It wasn't a great resume, but four more RPI Top 100 wins over Georgia, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Tennessee likely would have done the trick.
Instead, they lost back-to-back games against the Bulldogs and Aggies and now have seven losses to teams unlikely to make the tournament with at-large bids.
What's bizarre is that Alabama should have capitalized on both opportunities. Georgia played without Yante Maten and Texas A&M was without D.J. Hogg. But despite holding both opponents below one point per possession, Alabama's offense was so putrid that it's now out of the running for a spot in the field.
Stats are courtesy of WarrenNolan.com, KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com and are current through the start of play Monday, Feb. 27. Win-loss records only include games played against D-I competition.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
