Ranking the 10 Best Last-Minute MLB Free-Agent Values
The start of spring training is right around the corner, but a number of intriguing MLB free-agent options are still looking for new homes on the open market.
Matt Wieters, Chase Utley, Travis Wood and Joe Blanton are the biggest names still looking for work at the start of February.
There are also a number of intriguing pitchers who could be worth a flier as they make their way back from injury, including Henderson Alvarez, Nathan Eovaldi, C.J. Wilson, Luke Hochevar and Aaron Barrett.
However, we're instead going to focus on the lower-level guys who are capable of making good on a dirt-cheap contract and providing some solid value in the process.
Ahead, you'll find the 10 best last-minute free-agent targets, ranked based on their expected 2017 impact relative to the salary they are likely to receive.
10. SP/RP Jorge De La Rosa
1 of 10
2016 Stats (COL)
27 G, 24 GS, 8-9, 5.51 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 63 BB, 108 K, 134.0 IP
Outlook
Remember when Colorado Rockies general manager Dick Monfort nixed a deal that would have sent Jorge De La Rosa to the Baltimore Orioles for then-prospect Eduardo Rodriguez at the deadline in 2014?
Whoops.
The Rockies then doubled down on that mistake by signing him to a two-year, $25 million extension a few months later.
While the left-hander was a solid option again in 2015, he fell off dramatically this past season.
- 2015: 26 GS, 14 QS, 9-7, 4.17 ERA, 111 ERA+, 1.36 WHIP, 149.0 IP
- 2016: 24 GS, 10 QS, 8-9, 5.51 ERA, 89 ERA+, 1.64 WHIP, 134.0 IP
The 35-year-old still has something left in the tank, though.
After being demoted to the bullpen in May, he returned to the rotation in the middle of June and went 6-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 14 starts before getting hit hard in September.
As many as six teams were showing some level of interest in De La Rosa back in December, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation.
He's also open to any role.
"Free-agent left-hander Jorge De La Rosa has expanded his market by informing clubs that he is willing to work as a multi-inning reliever," wrote Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports on Dec. 9.
9. RP Yusmeiro Petit
2 of 10
2016 Stats (WAS)
36 G, 1 GS, 3-5, 4.50 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 15 BB, 49 K, 62.0 IP
Outlook
The Washington Nationals thought highly enough of Yusmeiro Petit last offseason to give him a one-year, $2.5 million deal that included a $3 million club option for the 2017 season.
However, a mediocre 2016 season led the team to opt for a $500,000 buyout instead, and he's still searching for a new home here at the start of February.
The 32-year-old will likely need to settle for a minor league deal and a non-roster invite this time around, but he's still capable of carving out a role as a multi-inning reliever and swingman.
His numbers from last year actually weren't as bad as they looked.
Petit had a 2.72 ERA in 49.2 innings of work over 26 appearances on Aug. 1 when he imploded.
The burly right-hander allowed at least one run in seven of his final 10 appearances and pitched to an unsightly 11.68 ERA during that span.
With a newfound value being placed on relievers capable of working multiple innings, he's well worth a roll of the dice this spring to see what he has left in the tank.
After all, it's not all that long ago he was one of the league's best long relievers and a key member of the San Francisco Giants' title-winning 2014 team.
**UPDATE: Petit signed a minor league deal with the Los Angeles Angels on Wednesday. He'll earn a base salary of $2.25 million if he makes the roster, with another $1.25 million in available incentives, per Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors.
8. RP Peter Moylan
3 of 10
2016 Stats (KC)
50 G, 2-0, 7 HLD, 3.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 16 BB, 34 K, 44.2 IP
Outlook
Peter Moylan is one of the best Australian-born players in MLB history.
He's also a pretty good relief pitcher in general.
Moylan was a workhorse early in his career with the Atlanta Braves, appearing in at least 80 games three times in a four-year span, but he struggled to stay healthy in subsequent seasons.
He made just 35 total appearances from 2011 to 2013 before missing the entire 2014 season after suffering a torn rotator cuff and labrum in his throwing shoulder.
The Braves brought him back on a minor league deal in 2015, and he returned to the majors in August, serving in the rare role of righty specialist and pitching to a 3.48 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 10.1 innings over 22 appearances.
Now, he's coming off a fully healthy season with the Kansas City Royals and looking to land another MLB bullpen gig.
His sidewinder delivery helped induce an impressive 61.5 percent ground-ball rate last season, and that's right in line with his career mark of 61.6 percent.
Think of the 38-year-old as a poor man's Brad Ziegler.
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7. LF Ryan Raburn
4 of 10
2016 Stats (COL)
113 G, 256 PA, .220/.309/.404, 10 2B, 9 HR, 30 RBI, 30 R
Outlook
Ryan Raburn is a one-dimensional player.
He's not a particularly good defensive outfielder, he hasn't stolen a base since 2012, he won't provide much in the batting average department, and he's exposed with regular playing time.
The 35-year-old absolutely wears out left-handed pitching, though:
- 2015: 176 PA, 1.004 OPS, 16 2B, 8 HR, 25 RBI
- 2016: 118 PA, .835 OPS, 5 2B, 5 HR, 19 RBI
- Career: 1,285 PA, .827 OPS, 88 2B, 54 HR, 169 RBI
His limited skill set netted him a minor league deal with the Colorado Rockies last spring, and he made good as a non-roster invitee, earning a $1.5 million salary.
Chances are he'll have to settle for a similar opportunity this offseason, and it would be unwise to bet against his playing his way onto someone's roster once again.
6. RP Craig Breslow
5 of 10
2016 Stats (MIA)
15 G, 0-2, 2 HLD, 4.50 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 4 BB, 7 K, 14.0 IP
Outlook
Who will be the next Rich Hill?
The smart money is on no one.
The trendy pick is Craig Breslow.
The 36-year-old set to work retooling his mechanics this offseason in hopes of kickstarting his career, as MLB writer Peter Gammons explained:
"After finishing last season with the Marlins, Breslow bought a Raspodo device, which tracks total spin, spin efficiency, tilt axis and velocity. It can be downloaded onto his iPad and costs far less than Trackman or Pitch f/x devices. He has dropped his arm angle, worked on his breaking ball, hashed philosophy with Hill and after an in person viewing, one scout described Breslow’s movement as "sick."
"
Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN provided video of his new arm slot, taken during a recent showcase that was attended by roughly half the league's teams.
At worst, he's a crafty veteran capable of competing to be the second lefty in a team's bullpen, so rolling the dice on him isn't much of a risk if the price is right.
The payoff could be significant, though.
**UPDATE: Breslow signed a minor league deal with the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. The terms of the deal are not yet known.
5. IF/OF Kelly Johnson
6 of 10
2016 Stats (ATL/NYM)
131 G, 304 PA, .247/.306/.391, 14 2B, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 25 R
Outlook
The term journeyman was invented for players like Kelly Johnson.
The 34-year-old has played for eight different teams over the course of his 11-year career, and he hasn't spent a full season with one team since 2013.
In the past three years alone, he's played for the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Braves, Mets, Braves again and Mets again.
And yet, he always manages to push his way into semi-regular playing time.
Case in point: Johnson is one of only 14 players to appear in at least 100 games in each of the past 10 seasons.
He's not flashy, just a solid left-handed bat with double-digit homer power who is capable of playing second, third and left field on a regular basis if needed.
The kind of player who fits on any bench around the league.
That said, his inclusion here is obviously just a formality, since we all know he'll inevitably find his way back to the Atlanta Braves.
In fact, they're interested, per David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
4. RP Tom Wilhelmsen
7 of 10
2016 Stats (TEX/SEA)
50 G, 2-4, 12 HLD, 6.80 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 19 BB, 28 K, 46.1 IP
Outlook
Tom Wilhelmsen looked like a key offseason addition for the Texas Rangers at this time a year ago.
The 33-year-old had pitched to a 2.97 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and tallied 67 saves in 267 career appearances spanning five seasons with the Seattle Mariners.
However, his time in Arlington was not pretty.
Over 21 appearances with the team, he ran up a 10.55 ERA before being outright off the 40-man roster following a particularly rough outing on June 13.
The Mariners scooped him up in free agency a few days later, and he quickly went back to being a useful bullpen arm, posting a 3.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and nine holds in 29 appearances the rest of the way.
The right-hander still boasts a mid-90s fastball and a good mix of off-speed stuff highlighted by a deceptive curveball-slider mix, so there's reason to believe his time with the Rangers was an aberration.
At this point, he's likely holding out hope for a guaranteed MLB deal.
If he does wind up settling for a minor league pact, he'll have a chance to be an absolute steal as a proven late-inning arm on the cheap.
3. RP David Hernandez
8 of 10
2016 Stats (PHI)
70 G, 3-4, 15 HLD, 3.84 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 32 BB, 80 K, 72.2 IP
Outlook
Why no love for David Hernandez?
The 31-year-old made good on a one-year, $3.9 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies last season as he reached 70 appearances for the third time in his career and first time since 2012.
If anything, he was more of a question mark last winter.
The right-hander missed all of 2014 and the start of 2015 recovering from Tommy John surgery, returning for 40 appearances and pitching to a 4.28 ERA with a so-so 8.8 K/9 rate—at least relative to his pre-injury numbers.
However, his strikeout rate rebounded to 9.9 K/9 last season, and by all accounts, his stuff was sharp.
His fastball clocked in with an average velocity of 94.6 mph, and he held opponents to a .193 average and fanned 47 with his terrific slider, per Brooks Baseball.
Yet the only time his name has popped up on the rumor mill was back in December when Roch Kubatko of MASN reported that the Baltimore Orioles were interested "enough to kick the tires on him," though that's not saying much.
Unless you're willing to pay up for Joe Blanton, he looks like the best remaining option on the reliever market.
2. 1B/DH Pedro Alvarez
9 of 10
2016 Stats (BAL)
109 G, 376 PA, .249/.322/.504, 20 2B, 22 HR, 49 RBI, 43 R
Outlook
Pedro Alvarez is no stranger to waiting around for a new contract.
The slugger didn't sign with the Baltimore Orioles until March 10 last season, landing a one-year, $5.95 million deal to serve as the team's primary designated hitter.
All things considered, it was another productive season for the 30-year-old, as he did exactly what he was signed to do and launched 22 home runs in 376 plate appearances.
With him, you're paying for power from the left side of the plate, nothing else.
Over the course of his career, he's homered once every 18.54 at-bats, good for 14th among all active players and third among active left-handed hitters.
Adam Lind, Justin Morneau and Ryan Howard are all still available as potential low-cost sources of lefty pop.
However, at a salary in the ballpark of what he earned in 2016, Alvarez still looks like the best value for the upcoming season.
1. SP Doug Fister
10 of 10
2016 Stats (HOU)
32 GS, 12-13, 4.64 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 62 BB, 115 K, 180.1 IP
Outlook
It's not all that long ago that Doug Fister was one of the game's best starters.
From 2011 to 2014, he went 51-38 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 17.1 WAR that ranked 10th among all MLB starters.
He capped that with a brilliant 2014 season, going 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP to finish eighth in NL Cy Young voting.
The past two seasons have been a mixed bag, though.
After an injury plagued 2015 season, the 33-year-old signed a one-year, $7 million deal with the Houston Astros last winter, and he sandwiched some quality production between two truly awful months.
- April: 4 GS, 2 QS, 1-3, 5.56 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 22.2 IP
- June-Aug: 22 GS, 14 QS, 11-6, 3.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 134.2 IP
- Sept: 6 GS, 0 QS, 0-4, 11.74 ERA, 2.35 WHIP, 23.0 IP
So which Fister will we see in 2017?
For a team like the San Diego Padres looking to fill out the rotation—or any rebuilding club for that matter—it's well worth taking a chance on him pitching like he did last summer and emerging as a valuable trade chip by the time the deadline rolls around.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com, unless otherwise noted. Contract information comes via Spotrac.
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