Super Bowl Point Spread 2017: Money Line, Over/Under for Patriots vs. Falcons

The oddsmakers expect the New England Patriots to repeat history in Super Bowl LI's showdown against the Atlanta Falcons.

Before capturing their last championship with a four-point victory over the Seattle Seahawks, the Pats won all three of their past titles by three points each. According to OddsShark, they're aptly favored by three for Sunday's game at NRG Stadium. 

Vegas also anticipates Tom Brady producing more points than New England has in past title showdowns. The previous six Super Bowl games played by Brady and Co. ended with a combined 44 points per bout. This time, however, the league's top-two scoring offenses have sparked a massive over-under line.

As a red-hot Matt Ryan tries to guide Atlanta to its first ring, New England hopes to snatch title No. 5 in its seventh try. Let's take a look at the marquee showdown after observing the Super Bowl LI betting information.

Super Bowl LI Betting Odds

Spread: Patriots -3

Over-Under: 58

Money Line: Patriots (-150), Falcons (+130)

Preview

Not since coming up against The Greatest Show on Turf have the Patriots encountered such a stout offense on Super Bowl Sunday. The Falcons represent their toughest title opponent in terms of scoring:

Ryan has embellished an MVP-worthy season by registering 730 yards, seven passing touchdowns (and one rushing) without any interceptions in two convincing postseason victories. Toss those numbers in with his season stats, and he's averaging 315.2 passing yards per game with 9.3 yards per pass attempt.

During Wednesday's press conference, per D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the 31-year-old quarterback pointed out two major areas of improvement:

"

We’ve been much better in the red zone, as well. We had a ton of … I think we led the league in turnovers last year in the red zone and have been excellent in that department this year. So, those were the, really, two things that helped: really emphasizing being productive in the red zone, not giving them the ball in the red zone, and then number two, just being more comfortable in the system.

"

According to Football Outsiders, the Falcons scored 5.24 points per red-zone possession this season. They also ended the 16-game schedule with 11 turnovers, tied with the Patriots for the fewest. Both of those former problems briefly resurfaced to simultaneously cause their last loss when Kansas City Chiefs safety Eric Berry returned an interception for a decisive defensive two-point conversion.

Those trends, minus that momentary hiccup two months ago, must continue against a defense which yielded an NFL-low 15.6 points per game during the season. 

Don't expect New England to halt the rolling Ryan entirely. Pro Football Focus illustrated his strong production against other top units this year:

The bigger issue is how Atlanta's young, resurgent defense will handle Brady's methodical offense. NFL on ESPN displayed the one-sided tale of the tape:

For all the talk of Brady's legacy, the Patriots would be wise to feed a heavy workload to running backs LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. Before containing Thomas Rawls, Christine Michael and converted wideout Ty Montgomery in the playoffs, the Falcons relinquished 4.5 yards per carry during the regular season.

ESPN Stats & Info highlighted a correlation between running and winning against Atlanta:

A healthy ground game will only make Brady's life easier against the season's No. 28-ranked passing defense, which will run a heavy risk by blitzing him as much as they did against NFC playoff foes. Such a daring strategy, however, likely proves Atlanta's best chance at slowing down a prolific passer who will decimate its secondary if given a clean pocket.

This should challenge Super Bowl XXXVIII—a 32-29 New England victory over the Carolina Panthers—as the Patriots' highest title affair since Brady and head coach Bill Belichick vaulted them into regular championship cast members. Neither team has scored fewer than 30 points in over a month, so the winner will probably need to eclipse that barrier. But it won't guarantee victory.

Let's hope this game is better than the last time a top scoring offense clashed with the premier scoring defense. Three years ago, the Seahawks spoiled Super Bowl parties across the world by annihilating the Denver Broncos, 43-8.

It's possible the winner reaches 43 again, but the loser may not trail far behind.