Mid-Major Conference Leaders with Cinderella Potential in 2017 NCAA Tournament
With the NCAA tournament creeping closer on the calendar, it is time to take a look at some mid-major teams with Cinderella potential.
Some of these programs have made names for themselves with big March wins already, while others are trying to make names for themselves as the bracket-busters America falls in love with. Star players are one of the reasons some of these schools appear on this list, as players like Valparaiso's Alec Peters are legitimate All-American candidates, despite playing in smaller leagues.
Other teams are balanced and well-oiled machines, as they have unlocked the right mix of veteran leadership and team chemistry.
Since the term "mid-major" is thrown around so often, we left a couple of programs off this list. Leagues that regularly field multiple bids are not included, so you won't see any West Coast Conference or Mountain West teams. Wichita State is also absent from this countdown because it's a nationally recognized name that has already been to the Final Four in the last five years.
Don't get caught trying to do a bunch of advance scouting a week before the 2017 NCAA tournament begins March 14. Get to know some of the underdogs who can make a run this year.
10. Vermont Catamounts
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Current resume: With 11 consecutive wins, a perfect 9-0 in the America East and 19-5 on the season, Vermont is one of the hottest teams in the nation. Wins over top Ivy League schools such as Harvard and Yale have looked good for the team in nonconference play, while a road conference win at second-place Stony Brook was also solid.
What makes them dangerous: The Catamounts have a deep and balanced rotation, as nine different players average at least 11 minutes per game. Vermont can slow the game down but keep the pressure up because its players haven't logged as many minutes. That balance also shows up in the scoring column, as five players are averaging nine or more points per game.
Star to watch: Junior guard Trae Bell-Haynes is the team's leading scorer at 11.3 points per game, while he's also a primary distributor (3.7 assists per game) and one of the Catamounts' better three-point options. The Canadian has been slightly worse as a shooter during his junior season, but he has also cut down on his turnovers.
9. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
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Current resume: Dunk City became famous during its Sweet Sixteen run in 2013. But it also gave No. 1 seed North Carolina a good game for a half last year in the NCAA tournament as a No. 16 seed. This year's Eagles have already been tested with losses to Florida and Baylor and a one-point loss to Michigan State. Florida Gulf Coast has gone 18-6 and beaten respected teams such as UT Arlington and Louisiana Tech.
What makes them dangerous: Head coach Joe Dooley has continued to bring a high level of talent into the Atlantic Sun program, as the Florida Gulf Coast offense has a lot of firepower. Rated as the No. 68 overall offense on KenPom, the Eagles have had single-digit losses to teams like Baylor and Michigan State because they have the athleticism to hang with the Power Five conferences.
Star to watch: Junior guard Brandon Goodwin has been outstanding this season, as he's shot the ball well from all over the floor while producing in a number of categories. Goodwin is averaging 16.9 points, 4.1 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game while shooting 53.9 percent from the floor.
8. Bucknell Bison
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Current resume: Bucknell basketball is most famous for making the second round in 2005 and 2006, and this year's team also looks like it could be tough to beat. The Bison stand at 18-6 and 10-1 in the Patriot League, and they have six consecutive wins—all coming by double digits. Wins over Vanderbilt and Richmond were good during nonconference play.
What makes them dangerous: With back-to-back conference regular-season titles (and NIT appearances), Bucknell has a balanced team that is hungry to make the postseason after falling short the last few seasons. The interior combination of juniors Zach Thomas and Nana Foulland is tough, as they are the Bison's two leading scorers.
Star to watch: While Thomas (15.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG) and Foulland (14.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG) have similar scoring and rebounding numbers, Thomas adds versatility with his ability to stretch the floor as a 40.5 percent three-point shooter. Also good at distributing as a frontcourt player, Thomas is averaging 3.2 assists per game.
7. New Mexico State Aggies
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Current resume: One of this season's biggest surprises has been New Mexico State, as first-year head coach Paul Weir has the Aggies at 21-2 and riding a 19-game winning streak. Coming off 23 wins and an NIT appearance in 2015-16, New Mexico State still had talented returning players. But this team has some solid wins for a mid-major program, including splitting with in-state rival New Mexico and beating Arizona State on the road.
What makes them dangerous: Weir has elected to play a more uptempo system that gets his team additional scoring opportunities and possessions. New Mexico State isn't setting any records by playing at the No. 245 adjusted tempo this season, but it is faster than last season's No. 307 mark. The Aggies offense has gone up to No. 101 from No. 196, as it's scoring about seven more points per game. Weir's adjustments have been subtle, but they've been effective. They have turned a 23-win team into an even better group.
Star to watch: Senior guard Ian Baker is a huge part of New Mexico State's success, as he leads the team in points (16.1), assists (3.8) and steals (1.4) while also providing a healthy number of rebounds from the perimeter. Baker isn't the most efficient scorer (38.5 percent from the field), but he does a nice job of setting up his teammates and getting them opportunities to score.
6. Akron Zips
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Current resume: Akron dropped its season opener to Youngstown State and hasn't had a bad loss since. After the puzzling first defeat, the Zips have only dropped games at Creighton and Gonzaga during their 19-3 start. Winners of 12 straight games, Akron is red-hot and rolling through the MAC, and it has a potentially dangerous team in March.
What makes them dangerous: Akron is remarkably consistent at closing out tight games, as it has gone 13-1 in games decided by 10 points or fewer this season. Since the Zips are so balanced and have such a potent offense, they can rely on a number of unique scoring options to carry them each game. With an offense that shoots 48.5 percent from the field and 39.1 percent from three-point range, the Zips can put up points against nearly anyone.
Star to watch: On a team full of balance and multiple scoring options, senior big man Isaiah Johnson is a load to handle on the interior, as he leads the Zips in scoring (16.4 PPG) and is second in rebounding (7.4 RPG). At 6'10", 295 pounds, Johnson is nearly impossible to defend one-on-one in the post. And having 6'9" forward Kwan Cheatham Jr. in the lineup as a floor-spacer means Johnson (3.2 assists per game) can make teams pay if they decide to double.
5. Belmont Bruins
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Current resume: Belmont started this season 1-3, but it has been on a roll ever since. It is on a 13-game winning streak to improve to 17-4 and 11-0 in the Ohio Valley Conference. With only losses to Vanderbilt, Florida, Rhode Island and Middle Tennessee (more on them in a bit), the Bruins have no bad losses on the season, and they have made easy work of most other mid-major teams.
What makes them dangerous: Head coach Rick Byrd has a tremendous offense that is efficient and can put up points in a hurry. Senior forward Evan Bradds is the best player in the OVC, and he has help around him with talented players such as forward Amanze Egekeze and guard Taylor Barnette. With the nation's No. 62 offense, Belmont isn't afraid to go up and down with anyone.
Star to watch: Bradds has been one of the best mid-major players in the country since his sophomore season, and he's been one of the most efficient scorers in all of college basketball. During his senior campaign, Bradds is only shooting 62.2 percent from the field (a career low if the number holds) while shooting a career-high 57.1 percent from three-point range. Averaging 21.2 points and 8.7 rebounds per game and with that type of consistency, Bradds should merit consideration for All-American honors.
4. Monmouth Hawks
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Current resume: Held out of the 2015-16 NCAA tournament by the selection committee despite going 27-7 in the regular season, Monmouth is motivated to win the MAAC and make the Big Dance this season. The Hawks tested themselves in nonconference play, as they earned a road win at Memphis and another solid win over Princeton. The Hawks also lost road games at South Carolina (overtime), Syracuse and North Carolina that helped test them for conference play.
What makes them dangerous: Hungry to make the NCAA tournament after just missing last season, the Hawks have a high-octane offense that plays fast and puts up a lot of points. Led by point guard Justin Robinson, Monmouth is on a nine-game winning streak in which it has put up at least 90 points four times, and it's playing with a lot of confidence on the offensive end.
Star to watch: After a breakout junior campaign, the 5'8" Justin Robinson is having another outstanding season during his senior year, averaging 19 points and five assists per game. While Robinson's shooting splits have dropped a bit since last season, he has been better at getting others involved in the offense. Not many point guards could handle Monmouth's uptempo scheme, but Robinson embraces it.
3. Valparaiso Crusaders
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Current resume: The Crusaders have a new head coach in Matt Lottich, but they've remained one of the best mid-major programs in the country, thanks in part to senior Alec Peters. Valparaiso already owns some quality nonconference wins over Alabama, BYU and Rhode Island, while it has also traveled to Oregon and Kentucky and taken losses to potential top seeds. With eight straight wins, Valpo is hoping to make it out of the Horizon League conference tournament this year after bowing out early in 2015-16.
What makes them dangerous: Peters is one of the best players in the country, regardless of conference, and he's the type of go-to option any college basketball coach would dream of having. But Peters has plenty of talented help around him. Senior guard Shane Hammink (15.4 PPG) and junior guard Tevonn Walker (11.3 PPG) are both battle-tested players with plenty of experience.
Star to watch: Putting up 23.8 points and 10.9 rebounds per game, Peters has played like an All-American this season, and he could hear his name called in the first round of the 2017 NBA draft. Recently becoming the school's all-time leader in career points, Peters is hoping to cap his Valparaiso career with a win in the NCAA tournament.
2. Illinois State Redbirds
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Current resume: With 12 consecutive wins, a win over Wichita State and an 11-0 mark in the Missouri Valley Conference, Illinois State has the look of a dangerous team as February begins. At 19-4, Illinois State is No. 38 in the latest KenPom rankings, and the win over the Shockers means it is the team to beat in the Valley.
What makes them dangerous: Illinois State is a veteran team that knows how to maintain the pace it wants while suffocating its opponents defensively. The Redbirds have the No. 8 defense in college basketball while having the No. 292 adjusted tempo. This is the type of team that can jump out ahead and make a six-point lead feel like a 16-point one.
Star to watch: Illinois State has a balanced roster that showcases four double-figure scorers, and senior Deontae Hawkins leads the team in points per game (14.8) and rebounds per contest (7.2) while also shooting 44.1 percent from three-point range. Hawkins is important because his size (6'8", 220 lbs) and his skill level enable him to be the team's toughest cover. With MiKyle McIntosh expected to miss the next few weeks with a torn meniscus, Illinois State will need Hawkins and senior guard Paris Lee to step up.
1. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
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Current resume: You will probably recognize the Blue Raiders as the No. 15 seed who shocked America by beating Michigan State in the first round of last year's NCAA tournament. This year's version of Middle Tennessee might be even better. With 10 consecutive wins and a 20-3 record, the Blue Raiders are rolling unbeaten through Conference USA. With wins over Belmont and UNC Wilmington, as well as double-digit wins over SEC schools like Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, it is time to take Middle Tennessee seriously.
What makes them dangerous: With a number of capable weapons, the Blue Raiders have the talent and experience to beat power-conference opponents. Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw, last season's leading scorers, returned to the team, and the addition of JaCorey Williams (more on him below) has helped both players. With an adjusted tempo that ranks No. 332 at KenPom, the Blue Raiders want to slow the game down and grind out wins by taking advantage of the opposing stars down the stretch.
Star to watch: Williams, a senior transfer from Arkansas, has given Middle Tennessee a new dimension. Sitting out last season due to NCAA transfer regulations, Williams is seeing everything pay off, averaging a team-leading 17.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.
Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom.com unless indicated otherwise.
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