2017 NFL Free Agents: Best Landing Spots for Top Available Players

Early assessments of the free-agent market come with equal doses of educated guessing and logical dot-connecting.

That's how it feels when you're the one trying to draw the lines between player and team, doing it while assessing needs and keeping the delicate salary-cap balance in mind.

The feeling is different for fans, though. Much different.

A long winter came early for many fanbases around the league, weeks before Super Bowl LI. Most fans care little about counting dollars because the money isn't theirs to spend anyway. They care about landing the big-name free agent who can provide an instant upgrade at an area of need.

There's plenty of hoping, wishing and dreaming for the fan in early February. But salary-cap handcuffs are real and often tight.

That can't be ignored when discussing the best landing spots for the top available free agents, as we're about to do here. Some teams can bully others with their mighty dollars. Others will quietly wait until the second and third waves of free agency, plucking cheaper but still valuable pieces from the scrap heap.

We're focused on the former category, and on projecting the likely future places of employment for the shiniest names out there. Factors that determined those names and where they landed were recent production and the possibility that performance falls off soon due to age. The ideal fits are based on team needs and the salary-cap space available.

Let's get to it.

Le'Veon Bell, Running Back

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Best Landing Spot: Pittsburgh Steelers

Running back Le'Veon Bell is going to demand a lot of money, and he'll get paid a lot of money—the kind of money that could reshape the running back market, a position often greeted with couch-cushion cash in free agency.

He's also not going anywhere.

Bell is fresh off a year with 1,884 yards from scrimmage during the regular season, averaging 157 yards per game. Then he added 357 rushing yards during the playoffs. He's a dynamic threat who can torch opposing defenses as both a runner and pass-catcher. He has more patience in the backfield than most of us do while waiting for the office coffee maker to finish.

He's also set to turn just 25 years old in February, and his injury issues aren't nearly as severe as they may seem. Bell has missed 13 games due to injury over four NFL seasons, but 10 of those games came in one year (2015). However, there is reason to be concerned about his workload. Over a short time span Bell has recorded 1,204 career touches at football's most physically demanding position (playoffs included).

He's central to everything the Steelers do offensively, which was clear when their offense sputtered with Bell injured during the AFC Championship Game. How he returns to Pittsburgh feels like the only real question, with the franchise tag very much in play.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In the unlikely event Bell hits the open market, Tampa could—and should—throw money at him. The Bucs seem prepared to move on from Doug Martin, and with $72.8 million in cap space they have plenty of spending room to purchase a massive running back upgrade and improve a 24th-ranked rushing offense.

Detroit Lions

The Lions made the playoffs with a woeful rushing offense that averaged only 3.7 yards per carry.

Kirk Cousins, Quarterback

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Best Landing Spot: Washington Redskins

Kirk Cousins is a lot of things.

He's a young quarterback who has steadily improved in head coach Jay Gruden's offense, and it showed in 2016 when he averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt.

But he's also a walking bad-decision time bomb, and there are still stretches of seasons when he seems to regress and then settle himself again. That came in 2016 when the 28-year-old threw five interceptions over the Redskins' final five games.

This is the NFL in 2017, though, a league with a quarterback free-agency market that annually looks like liquor-store shelves on New Year's Eve. Cousins isn't just the best option for the Redskins. He's the only option, and he has the comfort and familiarity to build on his high points in 2016 while still growing in Gruden's offense.

The Redskins will surely look to get a long-term deal done. The floor for franchise-quarterback salaries is about $20 million annually, and that's not about to get lower as the salary cap keeps rising dramatically every year. The Redskins need to manage their investment at the quarterback position and make a commitment.

But a second straight franchise tag at an estimated value of $23.94 million in 2017 isn't off the table. Only 13 players in league history have been tagged in back-to-back years, according to ESPN Stats & Information, and Cousins would be the first quarterback.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars need to mercifully pull the plug on the Blake Bortles experiment, and they have $65 million in cap room to use while arm-wrestling other QB-needy teams.

San Francisco 49ers

Jacksonville could push around almost every QB-hungry team except for the 49ers. They have $81.9 million in space, and the 49ers have another strong selling point in the form of Kyle Shanahan. He worked with Cousins for two years in Washington and is the 49ers' new head coach.

Eric Berry, Safety

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Best Landing Spot: Indianapolis Colts

The toxic fumes of a smoldering tire fire have been coming from the Colts secondary for a few seasons—especially in 2016, and especially from the safeties of a defense that recorded only eight interceptions, tied for second-worst.

Safety Eric Berry, meanwhile, snatched four interceptions on his own along with nine passes defensed in 2016. He allowed a passer rating in coverage of only 55.3, according to Pro Football Focus.

Berry won't come cheap; 28-year-old five-time Pro Bowl safeties tend to cost many millions. But with $55.9 million in cap space, the Colts should be able to flex their financial muscle if needed.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Chicago Bears

The Bears have a small green mountain of cap space too ($58.9 million), and their pass defense struggled to create turnovers and finished with eight interceptions.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers pass defense went into a fiery flameout without cornerback Josh Norman in 2016. Berry could be a steadying presence as Carolina's young cornerbacks continue to mature. The Panthers have the 10th-most cap space, so there's room to take on a significant contract.

Chandler Jones, Linebacker

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Best Landing Spot: Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians has always been a straight shooter, and he didn't hide the Cardinals' plans for outside linebacker Chandler Jones. When asked how the team will approach the impending free agent, Arians said Jones isn't going anywhere.

Arians told reporters that if the two sides can't land on a long-term deal, the franchise tag will be used on Jones, which is expected to be valued at about $14.1 million for his position.

Retaining Jones through any means necessary is a must for the Cardinals, and it's a move that will set the foundation for their offseason. They have a decent amount of cap space ($35.5 million) but also need to deal with two other core defensive pieces entering free agency: defensive end Calais Campbell and safety Tony Jefferson.

Losing any of those three players would be a gut shot to the league's second-ranked defense in 2016. But seeing Jones walk would be the real haymaker. He's recorded double-digit sacks in three of his past four seasons.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Detroit Lions

The Lions had a punchless pass rush in 2016, finishing with only 26 sacks (30th). Jones would provide an immediate boost.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers can back their money truck up to whoever they want, which is why you'll see them appear in this section a lot. It'll just be a matter of who wants to join a rebuilding team with dysfunctional management. Jones can certainly help the 49ers' 19th-ranked pass rush. But he may not want to spend his prime years under the rule of Jed York.

Kawann Short, Defensive Tackle

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Best Landing Spot: Cleveland Browns

The list of flaws with the Cleveland Browns in 2016 could be best summarized by drawing a giant red circle around their entire roster. Defensively, the most glaring reason why they were gashed each week lay with the bruisers up front.

Or rather, a lack of them. The Browns fielded one of just three defenses to allow 140-plus rushing yards per game. They were routinely roasted on the ground and couldn't control the clock or the scoreboard. The glaring weakness against the run contributed to a 12.7-point average margin of defeat in their 15 losses.

Defensive tackle Kawann Short is a solution to that problem if he hits the open market. There's some uncertainty about how Short's offseason will play out, as the Panthers have depth at defensive tackle and fellow tackle Star Lotulelei will also seek a long-term deal soon. So if the bidding begins, Cleveland can throw its ample cap space ($108.8 million) at Short and land a defensive lineman who recorded 29 run stops and 49 pressures in 2016, per PFF.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Buffalo Bills

Short would plug a leak in the NFL's 29th-ranked rush defense.

Miami Dolphins

Defensive end Mario Williams will likely be released after he not-so-shockingly failed to find the 2014 version of himself at the age of 31. The Dolphins will yet again enter an offseason with both pass-rushing and run-stopping help up front as a primary need. Short can check off both of those boxes.

Kevin Zeitler, Guard

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Best Landing Spot: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks aren't overflowing with cap space. That's the short-term future general manager John Schneider was always going to face after locking up so many of his core players to long-term contracts.

But there's a simple sunny side to the Seahawks' lack of cap space: They don't have any major pending free agents of their own.

That means with $27.3 million available, they can afford to make one major free-agent splash. It should be to finally, and mercifully, upgrade an offensive line that's threatened to derail otherwise promising seasons far too often.

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has been sacked 40-plus times in each of his past four seasons. Sure, he's mobile and athletic, but there's only so much chaos a team can reasonably ask him to avoid. Eventually he'll suffer a much more serious injury than the minor ones that hobbled him in 2016.

Kevin Zeitler is a fine place to put your money when looking for an offensive line improvement this offseason. The veteran guard is well suited for how the Seahawks' run-oriented offense is structured. He's a top-tier run-blocker at his position, and the 26-year-old allowed only one sack in 2016, per PFF.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Los Angeles Chargers

Yes, running back Melvin Gordon had a bounce-back season while rushing for 997 yards with 12 touchdowns. But imagine what he could do with decent blocking. Finding running lanes was often difficult, which contributed to the Chargers' averaging only 3.8 yards per carry.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers spend significant money in free agency only a little more than never, and investing in the offensive line may not be a top priority. But if T.J. Lang gets away from them as a free agent, then Zeitler could plug a massive hole.

Calais Campbell, Defensive End

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Best Landing Spot: Oakland Raiders

It's easy to wonder if defensive end Calais Campbell belongs to the same human species as the rest of us. He stands 6'8", weighs 300 pounds and has consistently collapsed the pocket as one of the league's best 3-4 defensive ends.

The Arizona Cardinals' cap situation isn't welcoming. They have $35.5 million to work with, but much of that will be dedicated to keeping Chandler Jones. Safeties Tony Jefferson and D.J. Swearinger are free agents as well, which means, at 30 years old, there's a decent chance Campbell could walk.

When he does, the Raiders should be in full pursuit. A team with $49 million in cap space needs a supporting option alongside outside linebacker Khalil Mack. The Raiders finished with a league-low 25 sacks in 2016.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Tennessee Titans

The Titans have more than enough cap room ($67.6 million) to build on and fortify the strength of their defense. Putting Campbell across from defensive tackle Jurrell Casey would make for a truly terrifying front seven.

Baltimore Ravens

If the Ravens could clear cap room (only $15.3 million available), Campbell would complement defensive end Timmy Jernigan nicely and upgrade a pass rush that recorded only 31 sacks in 2016 (24th).

T.J. Lang, Guard

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Best Landing Spot: Cleveland Browns

The most likely outcome here is guard T.J. Lang returns to the Packers. He anchors a shaky offensive line, and Packers general manager Ted Thompson generally makes an effort to retain the core building blocks his team has drafted and developed.

However, if Lang does escape Green Bay, then he should be high on the Browns' list after they gave up a quadruple-take-inducing 66 sacks in 2016.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Detroit Lions

The Lions could be set to lose Larry Warford at guard if he walks as a free agent. Although Lang won't come cheap, he'll likely cost less than the 25-year-old Warford.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Luke Joeckel has been a colossal draft bust at both tackle and guard, and he's now headed for free agency after suffering a knee injury. Lang would finally provide some stability in front of Bortles—or whoever the future quarterback is in Jacksonville.

Jason Pierre-Paul, Defensive End

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Best Landing Spot: Atlanta Falcons

Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul can do more with 7.5 fingers than many other pass-rushers can with 10. He had to play under a one-year "prove it" deal following his fireworks accident, and the former first-round pick has since showed the league that he remains highly effective at the still-ripe age of 28.

He finished with seven sacks even after missing four games due to sports hernia surgery. He'd be a great addition to the Atlanta Falcons front seven, a unit in need of support for outside linebacker Vic Beasley. In 2016, Beasley accounted for 15.5 of Atlanta's 34 sacks, and the next closest defensive lineman was Adrian Clayborn with 4.5.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys need to free up a whole lot of cap space, and they can do that by moving on from quarterback Tony Romo. Once Romo is freed from his backup status, Dallas still won't be overflowing with cap room. But the Cowboys could muster enough to make a play for Pierre-Paul if his market sputters a bit.

Finding pass-rushing help is high on the Cowboys' offseason wish list with defensive end Randy Gregory suspended and an inconsistent Demarcus Lawrence set to undergo back surgery.

Indianapolis Colts

Outside linebacker Robert Mathis has hung 'em up after a potential Hall of Fame career. That leaves a deep pass-rushing hole for a team that was already struggling to pressure opposing quarterbacks.

Melvin Ingram, Linebacker

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Best Landing Spot: New Orleans Saints

Outside linebacker Melvin Ingram has totaled 18.5 sacks over the last two seasons, both of which have been full 16-game years after he struggled to stay healthy earlier in his career. He's showcased his athletic gifts while turning corners with ease and disrupting the pocket. Ingram also finished fourth among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2016 with 69 pressures, per PFF.

That is why he'd fit in well with the New Orleans Saints, a team that's finally freed itself from an annual salary-cap deathtrap. The Saints have $28.7 million to work with and are desperately in need of support for defensive end Cameron Jordan.

Some of that support will hopefully come from having defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins healthy for a full season. But a pass rush that generated only 30 sacks needs widespread help.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams can afford to pay Ingram the $15 million-plus he'll surely seek with their $39 million in cap space. They need to get pass-rushing production from someone not named Aaron Donald.

New England Patriots

Somehow the Patriots won the Super Bowl after getting rid of both Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. Now Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard are potentially set to walk too.

A.J. Bouye, Cornerback

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Best Landing Spot: Green Bay Packers

A.J. Bouye emerged as a star in 2016. After playing sparingly his first three seasons, the 25-year-old finally received the snaps he deserved. Bouye dazzled with his physical play that led to 16 passes defensed and a passer rating in coverage of 58.5, per PFF.

That passer rating combined with his age will lead to another large number with a dollar sign attached to it this offseason. If the Packers don't decide to make their splash elsewhere, they should dump money on Bouye.

Wasting prime years of a top-tier quarterback is a bad way to do business in the NFL. The Packers need to support golden-armed passer Aaron Rodgers with a defense that won't force wins to come mostly in shootout fashion. The Packers lost three games in 2016 in which they scored 25-plus points.

They were torched through the air while allowing 269.3 passing yards per game and a league-worst 8.1 yards per attempt. Injuries didn't help, of course; cornerback Sam Shields missed nearly the entire season, and fellow defensive back Damarious Randall was often hobbled. But cornerback is the swirling black hole for the Packers regardless, especially with Shields now released.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Buffalo Bills

If the Bills lose Stephon Gilmore, then Bouye will be more than just a replacement. He'll arguably be an upgrade.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns have enough cap room to buy the island of Grenada. They might take a few cannonballs into the free-agency pool, one of which could be signing Bouye to push Joe Haden aside after he allowed six touchdowns in 2016, per PFF.

DeSean Jackson, Wide Receiver

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Best Landing Spot: Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have many needs throughout their roster. But they could decide that finding a reliable set of hands for quarterback Jared Goff to place a football into is the top priority. If they do that, then DeSean Jackson should be squarely in their crosshairs.

Jackson recorded his fifth career 1,000-plus yard receiving season in 2016. He also finished the year averaging 17.9 yards per reception. But he's now 30 years old and has missed seven games since 2015, so his market could be suppressed, especially with so many younger names available among wide receivers (for example: Alshon Jeffery, Terrelle Pryor and Kenny Stills).

If that happens, the Rams will fall into an ideal situation: They'll get the wide receiver they so desperately need and have other financial resources to work with to improve other areas.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Tennessee Titans

In 2016, Titans wide receiver Tajae Sharpe showed flashes of what he could become, and fellow wideout Rishard Matthews finished with a solid 945 yards through the air. Still, Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota needs more support, specifically better deep options.

Carolina Panthers

Sure, Ted Ginn has always dropped a lot of footballs, and he turfed seven of them in 2016, per PFF. But he still plays a critical role as a deep threat, and the 31-year-old will likely be leaving as a free agent, with the Panthers not eager to invest heavily in an aging one-dimensional receiver. Jackson can slide right in and be the perfect weapon to pair with quarterback Cam Newton's arm cannon.

Andrew Whitworth, Tackle

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Best Landing Spot: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are in dire need of offensive line help if they want to both stay atop the NFC West and keep their championship window open while core defenders still have prime years left. So whether it's Zeitler or left tackle Andrew Whitworth, they'll gladly take either of the possibly soon-to-be former Cincinnati Bengals offensive linemen.

Whitworth may be the better fit. The Seahawks have a quality run-blocking unit up front, but they consistently struggle in pass protection. That's Whitworth's specialty. Despite his advanced age, the 35-year-old is one of the league's premier left tackles.

Whitworth allowed only 14 pressures in 2016, per PFF, a league low among tackles. That sort of reliable blindside wall is what the Seahawks need as Wilson keeps marching through his prime years. With a modest $27.3 million in cap room, Seattle would also benefit from getting their man at a reasonable price. Whitworth's age should take care of that.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Cleveland Browns

Cleveland will be attached to any high-end blocker because of both the team's cap space and its need to snatch up anyone who can plug its gushing protection holes.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are in a similar situation to what the Seahawks face, just worse. The Seahawks have made the playoffs in five straight seasons and advanced to the Super Bowl twice during that run. They've done that with, at best, a mediocre pass-blocking offensive line for most of those years. The Colts have put together back-to-back 8-8 seasons for a lot of reasons, and chief among them is the awful protection given to quarterback Andrew Luck.

Alshon Jeffery, Wide Receiver

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Best Landing Spot: Cincinnati Bengals

Alshon Jeffery is both maddening and exciting. When he's at his peak performance level, Jeffery is among the NFL receivers who could double as circus jugglers. He cradles lobbed balls with one hand in heavy traffic and then holds on to them as both defenders and the ground try to knock his prized possession loose.

Then he disappears for stretches, though in fairness the vortex of awfulness the Chicago Bears trotted out at quarterback in 2016 didn't help matters. The Bears are rebuilding and already franchise-tagged Jeffery once, so he's likely ready to move on.

Jeffery needs a quarterback who can better utilize his skill set and a team where the still-young receiver can grow (he turns 27 in February). That place should be with the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that's searching for a solid complementary option to put across from A.J. Green.

The Bengals have plenty of their own pending free agents to worry about, most notably Whitworth, Zeitler and cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. But with $45 million in projected cap space, chasing a high-end name like Jeffery is still very much in the budget.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Tennessee Titans

With their cap space ($67.6 million) the Titans have the cash to take a home run swing. They could pass on DeSean Jackson and chase the younger Jeffery instead.

Arizona Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald is returning for what will probably be his final season in 2017. The Cardinals need to think long and hard about their future at wide receiver. Jeffery could be a short-term secondary option and then become a primary weapon in 2018.

Stephon Gilmore, Cornerback

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Best Landing Spot: New England Patriots

Youth can mask a subpar season, which is what will inevitably happen if Stephon Gilmore hits the open market. Gilmore recorded a career-high five interceptions in 2016, but he twice gave up 100-plus receiving yards in coverage in a game, per PFF.

However, even during a somewhat off year by his high standards, Gilmore finished with a passer rating allowed of 70.6. He'll turn 27 years old just after the 2017 season starts, which means the first-round pick in 2012 could set the high-water mark for the market at cornerback.

The New England Patriots are well positioned to make Gilmore their next shutdown corner.

The Patriots arguably have one of those already in Malcolm Butler. But their defense was even more formidable when it featured Darrelle Revis during what now looks like his last prime year. Slotting in Gilmore would improve an already 12th-ranked secondary and provide insurance if defensive end Chris Long leaves and the Patriots pass rush declines.

The Patriots usually prefer well-calculated dumpster diving in free agency. But they have the cap room ($63 million) to make an exception for a highly skilled defender in coverage.

Other Potential Landing Spots

Buffalo Bills

Gilmore's current team is also likely his future team, or at least his short-term future team. The Bills don't have a lot of cap room ($26 million), but they could easily justify using the franchise tag on Gilmore.

Detroit Lions

The Lions defense allowed 248.4 passing yards per game in 2016 (19th). They need to either improve their pass rush or the guys who are responsible once the ball goes airborne. Or they can do both with $37.9 million to work with.

All salary-cap information for both teams and players provided by Spotrac.