New York Mets: 5 Last-Minute Moves They Should Consider
It's been a quiet offseason for the New York Mets since they came to terms on a new deal with free-agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes.
Granted, that move cost the team a whopping $110 million over four years—and then another $17.2 million went to Neil Walker when he accepted his qualifying offer—but it's been deafeningly silent out of the Mets camp over the past few months.
So what's left on the offseason to-do list?
Shoring up the bullpen with a few more veteran arms, including at least one quality left-hander, would seem to be the one pressing need that still needs to be addressed.
Finding a taker for Jay Bruce to unclog the outfield logjam was also a priority earlier in the offseason, but that no longer appears to be the case.
"The Mets have notified Bruce they anticipate starting the season with him as their everyday right fielder, an industry source told The Post," per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
So with the focus squarely on filling out the relief corps, let's take a quick look at five last-minute moves for the team to consider before the start of spring training.
Bullpen Depth Plan B: Sign Joe Smith
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2016 Stats (LAA/CHC)
54 G, 2-5, 7 HLD, 3.46 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 18 BB, 40 K, 52.0 IP, 0.5 WAR
Outlook
Joe Smith has long been one of the league's most durable relievers.
The 32-year-old has made at least 50 appearances in nine of the past 10 seasons, and his 639 total appearances since his rookie season in 2007 are fourth-most in the majors during that span.
While he doesn't have overpowering stuff, his sidewinder delivery generates a ton of sink on his fastball and has helped him post a 56.2 percent ground-ball rate for his career.
That number was up over 50 percent once again last season, and keeping the ball on the ground should again be a strength for him in 2017.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports mentioned that the Mets have shown interest in Smith as a bullpen arm in the same tweet linking the team to Sergio Romo.
Aside from the team's pursuit of veteran bullpen help as a whole, making Smith an obvious target, there's also a certain level of familiarity between player and team.
Smith was originally selected by the Mets in the third round of the 2006 draft, quickly rising up the minor league ranks to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster heading into 2007.
He spent his first two MLB seasons with the club before being traded to the Cleveland Indians prior to the 2009 season, and a reunion now would seem to be a good fit for both sides.
Something similar in the neighborhood of a one-year, $3 million offer might be enough to get a deal done at this point in the offseason.
Bullpen Depth Plan A: Sign Sergio Romo
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2016 Stats (SF)
40 G, 1-0, 14 HLD, 2.64 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7 BB, 33 K, 30.2 IP, 0.8 WAR
Outlook
All signs point to the Mets being without All-Star closer Jeurys Familia to begin the 2017 season, as he's facing a suspension of at least 30 games stemming from an offseason domestic violence incident, according to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News.
They already have one potential short-term replacement in Addison Reed.
He was brilliant last season with a 1.97 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and an MLB-best 40 holds in 80 appearances as the primary setup man and has 106 career saves to his credit, but he was never a lockdown ninth-inning option in his days as a closer.
That could make someone like Sergio Romo an appealing target as another potential short-term closer.
The Mets have shown some level of interest in Romo, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, as they continue their search for bullpen depth.
The 33-year-old served primarily in a setup role the past two seasons before replacing Santiago Casilla as the San Francisco Giants' closer down the stretch last year.
He was 4-for-4 on save chances with six scoreless appearances to close out the year, lending some hope that he's still capable of being the 38-save pitcher we saw in 2013.
As long as his nasty slider—which he threw a career-high 63.5 percent of the time last season—keeps biting, he'd be a welcome addition to the pen in any role.
Lefty Reliever Plan C: Sign Craig Breslow
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2016 Stats (MIA)
15 G, 0-2, 2 HLD, 4.50 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 4 BB, 7 K, 14.0 IP, -0.2 WAR
Outlook
Can Craig Breslow be this year's version of Rich Hill?
While assuming anyone will enjoy that type of late-career resurgence would be foolish, the 36-year-old has made some significant adjustments this offseason to emerge as one of the more intriguing late-offseason options on the pitching market.
MLB writer Peter Gammons explained, prior to a recent showcase that was attended by roughly half of the league:
"After finishing last season with the Marlins, Breslow bought a Raspodo device, which tracks total spin, spin efficiency, tilt axis and velocity. It can be downloaded onto his iPad and costs far less than Trackman or Pitch f/x devices. He has dropped his arm angle, worked on his breaking ball, hashed philosophy with Hill and after an in person viewing, one scout described Breslow’s movement as “sick.”
"
Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN provided video of Breslow's new arm slot, taken from the aforementioned showcase.
The Blue Jays, Indians and Twins are all "strong" on Breslow, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, while he's viewed more as a secondary plan for the Dodgers and Mets.
Should the Mets miss out on signing Jerry Blevins or Boone Logan or prefer a one-year commitment as opposed to the multiyear deals those two will likely command, a revamped Breslow would make for an interesting alternative with considerable upside.
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Lefty Reliever Plan B: Sign Boone Logan
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2016 Stats (COL)
66 G, 2-5, 27 HLD, 3.69 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 20 BB, 57 K, 46.1 IP, 0.6 WAR
Outlook
As a general statement, Coors Field is where pitchers go to die.
It looked like the altitude would claim another victim when Boone Logan posted a 6.84 ERA over 35 appearances in 2014—the first year of a three-year, $16.5 million contract.
He bounced back with a productive 2015, though, before authoring arguably the best season of his career this past year.
His 3.69 ERA might not look great on the surface, but it amounted to a 133 ERA+, or roughly 33 percent better than a league-average pitcher.
The 32-year-old also posted a strikeout rate above 11.0 K/9 for the fifth consecutive season while limiting hitters to an extremely stingy 5.2 H/9, which ranked ninth among pitchers with at least 40 innings of work.
While he's improved against right-handed batters over the years, Logan is still best used as a LOOGY, so that limits his value a bit.
That said, he was nearly unhittable against lefties, holding them to a .142 average and .477 OPS with a 33.6 percent strikeout rate.
According to Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith, one executive pointed to the two-year, $12 million deal that Antonio Bastardo signed last offseason (with the Mets) as a relevant comparison for what Logan might be worth in this year's market.
Lefty Reliever Plan A: Re-Sign Jerry Blevins
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2016 Stats (NYM)
73 G, 4-2, 16 HLD, 2.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 15 BB, 52 K, 42.0 IP, 1.1 WAR
Outlook
A reunion with Jerry Blevins still looks like the Mets' best approach to addressing the need for a proven left-handed reliever.
Let's take a quick look at the top in-house options from the left side and how they fared in 2016:
- Josh Edgin (16 G, 5.23 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 6 BB, 11 K, 10.1 IP)
- Sean Gilmartin (14 G, 7.13 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 7 BB, 11 K, 17.2 IP)
- Josh Smoker (20 G, 4.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4 BB, 25 K, 15.1 IP)
The 28-year-old Smoker has some intriguing potential as a former first-round pick with swing-and-miss stuff and some upside. Last season was his first year pitching above the Double-A level, though, and 15.1 decent innings make for an extremely small sample size.
Meanwhile, Edgin and Gilmartin are both better served as second lefties in the pen or organizational depth.
That makes the value of Blevins to last year's relief corps and the potential void that would be left if he wasn't re-signed or replaced fairly clear.
According to MLB insider Andy Martino, the Mets and Blevins are both comfortable with a two-year deal to facilitate a reunion.
That two-year, $12 million deal signed by Antonio Bastardo that was referenced earlier once again becomes a relevant comparison and would represent a nice raise for Blevins, who made $5 million on a one-year deal a year ago.
Not only does bringing back the 33-year-old lefty look like the best-case scenario for the Mets, it also looks like the most likely outcome as the offseason winds to a close.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. Contract information via Spotrac.
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