Super Bowl 2017: MVP Favorites and Predictions for Patriots vs. Falcons

Fans don't need an odds guide to know New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is the favorite for the MVP award.

Already a winner of the award three times, there is more than a sense of poetic justice here with Brady looking for a fourth after coming back from a four-game suspension. There is also the fact he was one of the league's most dominant players over 12 games.

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons, of course, have other plans.

Before taking a dip into odds, here is a look at the basic info surrounding the game:

Date	Location	Time	TV	Point Spread	Over/Under	Prediction
Feb. 5	NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas	6:30 p.m. ET	Fox	NE -3	58.5	Patriots

Maybe this particular Super Bowl matchup doesn't feature an Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger, but Brady has a strong supporting cast capable of ripping the award from his grip.

So do the Falcons, who have an MVP candidate of their own under center and arguably the best receiver in football.

The notable MVP odds, according to OddsShark:

Player	Odds
Tom Brady	+160
Matt Ryan	+250
Julio Jones	+750
Julian Edelman	+1600
LeGarrette Blount	+2000
Dion Lewis	+2500
Devonta Freeman	+2500
Chris Hogan	+2500
Martellus Bennett	+5000

It's not hard to see why Brady is the favorite.

The man missed the first four games of the season, returned and threw 28 touchdowns with just two interceptions, quelling any whispers about his age (39) contributing to a fall. He casually tossed three touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game before deflecting any talk about Deflategate.

"This is my motivation right here, all these fellas in front of me, these guys," Brady said, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "The boys showed up to play today."

Brady wouldn't complain, then, if one of his guys swiped the award from him, right?

Because someone like Julian Edelman absolutely could. He led the team in receiving with 1,106 yards and three touchdowns. While Edelman only scored those handful of times, a multiple-touchdown game could lead to the award.

Most likely to steal it from Brady is LeGarrette Blount. One of the league's most underrated players for the past few years, Blount held it down while Brady served his suspension and tallied 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns by the end of the year.

Blount isn't just effective—he could be the key to New England's approach when it comes to controlling the clock and keeping Ryan off the field. There is room for him to carry the game if the Patriots can get out to a lead as well considering the Falcons allowed 25.4 points and 104.5 rushing yards per game during the regular season.

It sure doesn't hurt that Blount can put together quite the highlight reel, either, as the NFL's Twitter account captured:

More likely to steal the award is Ryan.

An MVP contender most of the year, Ryan completed 69.9 percent of his passes and threw 38 touchdowns before throwing another seven with no interceptions over two postseason games. His breezing past Russell Wilson and Rodgers was as easy as it sounds.

Ryan keeps getting better as the season wears on, too, as a note by NFL.com's Chris Wesseling illustrated:

There isn't an easy avenue to production against the Patriots, though, owners of an underrated defense that only permitted 15.6 points per game during the regular season.

Ryan's key to a big game will be through the aforementioned Jones, who sits with appealing odds on the list. 

Jones put on a clinic in 2016, totaling 1,409 yards and six touchdowns—in just 14 games. Making up for lost time, he has 247 yards and three touchdowns through two postseason games thus far.

While he has a tough task against top-tier defenders such as Malcolm Butler, Jones isn't a stranger to stepping up on a big stage. Just digest a note provided by ESPN Stats & Info:

The names detailed above aren't the only options for MVP, but everyone else boasts fringe odds at best for a reason. Devonta Freeman could score a few touchdowns, sure. Same for Chris Hogan if Edelman gets shuttered. Maybe Martellus Bennett makes a few clutch grabs in the end zone.

But bettors have to play the odds smart, balancing fringe, high-payout risks with the favorites.

And when it comes to favorites, it is simply too difficult to pick against Brady. The man has been on a mission all year, and any rumblings about his age or the suspension hurting his play were clearly misguided.

If New England wins the game, the award will clearly go to Brady. He spreads the ball around too much for one guy alone to have a serious conversation about stealing the award, and the odds Blount receives enough carries to actually enter the conversation to begin with aren't great.

Historically speaking, a quarterback will win the award this year given the fact the position has won 27 of them, with no other position winning more than six.

Remember, too, narratives will play into the award if it's close. Blount stepping on stage and accepting the award isn't anywhere close to as dramatic if Brady does, smiling and taking the hardware from the league that banned him for four games.

Barring an unforeseen implosion, this is Brady's award to lose.

Prediction: Brady wins the MVP award.

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All betting information courtesy of OddsShark. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.