Patriots vs. Falcons: Latest Point Spread, Money Line, Picks for Super Bowl 51

If you happen to take a look at the history of Super Bowl odds (located here, per OddsShark), you might notice something strange.

Oftentimes, a game in which the spread is three or fewer points is decided by a much wider margin than anticipated.

On seven different occasions, a game with such a spread has ended with a deficit of 10 or more points, with the most infamous case being Super Bowl XLVIII. (Denver, a two-point favorite, lost 43-8 to Seattle.)

But other times, a Super Bowl with a double-digit spread turns out to go against the established narrative leading up to the contest.

Per the records, a double-digit underdog actually ended up winning the Super Bowl outright five times out of 14. Of course, the most memorable Super Bowl in that scenario was the 18-point underdog New York Jets beating the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in the third edition of the big game.

The New England Patriots are three-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons, per OddsShark, with an over-under set at 58.5. OddsShark also cited sportsbook BetOnline as having a -159 money line for the Pats to win straight-up, while the Falcons are at +139.

The hope here is that this game, which will take place Feb. 5 at 6:30 p.m. ET, is more akin to the classics from last decade (Giants-Patriots, Steelers-Cardinals and Patriots-Panthers) than the clunkers that have been decided by halftime.

Below, you'll find a prediction for the game, with a focus on one theme that will define the outcome.

Prediction

The Philadelphia Eagles provided the best blueprint for beating the Falcons in their November contest this season.

Philadelphia beat Atlanta 24-15, which was the largest deficit the Falcons lost by all year. Three statistics stand out in particular when reviewing that game:

1. The Eagles ran for 208 yards and two touchdowns.

2. Running back Darren Sproles caught eight passes for 57 yards out of the backfield.

3. The Eagles held the ball for 38:10. To put how good that number is into perspective, the Eagles had a 32:31 time of possession mark on average this season, per Football Outsiders, and that led the league. The Eagles nearly beat their NFL-best average by six minutes.

All of this (plus a stout defense) resulted in the Falcons, who had the league's No. 1 scoring offense with 540 points, putting up their worst point total all season. In fact, in 17 other games (including playoffs), the Falcons never scored fewer than 23.

Atlanta's struggles against the run were more widespread than one game, however.

Per Football Outsiders, Atlanta finished fourth-worst in run defense DVOA. Atlanta also allowed more receiving yards per game to running backs (53.5) than any other NFL team this season.

That's a bad combination against a New England Patriots three-headed rushing attack (LeGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis and James White) that can run up the gut just as easily as it can catch passes out of the backfield.

Blount ran for 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns this season and had two games in which he ran for 100-plus yards and two touchdowns (vs. Houston and Pittsburgh). He's hard to bring down, as this play showed last weekend:

Lewis has played 16 games in a Patriots uniform and won all 16. He showed his abilities in a three-touchdown game against Houston where he had a rushing touchdown, receiving touchdown and a kick-return touchdown in the same game.

White has seen the field less with Lewis back in the mix, but he can still bring it, scoring two touchdowns on eight catches and 47 yards in one game against Cincinnati this season.

As good as the Falcons offense is, its problem may not be the Patriots defense, but rather the possibility of the Patriots hanging onto the ball all night with a ball-control offense led by their three backs and stout run-blocking offensive line.

New England finished fifth in time of possession this year, so it certainly has the capability of pulling that off. The prediction here is that it happens, and that Matt Ryan and the Falcons simply don't have enough time to hang with the Pats.

Pick: Patriots 31, Falcons 24