Steelers vs. Patriots: Final Odds, Spread Pick for AFC Championship Game 2017

The path to Super Bowl LI runs through New England in the AFC. The Patriots produced a standout season, losing only twice, and rightfully earned the conference's No. 1 seed.

However, the Pittsburgh Steelers come into Foxborough, Massachusetts, on a nine-game winning streak and are playing some of the best football of the season at precisely the right time. With weapons like quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le'Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown, the Steelers have the firepower to challenge New England's stout defense—which allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points per game in the regular season.

This promises to be one intense matchup.

In the second of two conference championship games, the Patriots and Steelers are set to do battle at 6:40 p.m. ET on Sunday. We're here to take one final look at the game and the latest odds—courtesy of OddsShark. We'll make a prediction for the game and examine some of the top storylines heading into Championship Game Sunday.

AFC Championship Game

What: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

When: Sunday, Jan. 22

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET

National TV: CBS

Live Stream: CBS Sports Live

Line: New England -6

Over/Under: 51

Prediction: New England over Pittsburgh, 27-21

Latest Buzz

Steelers Looking to Batter Brady

Famed boxer and pigeon enthusiast Mike Tyson once said, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

That idea sums up the strategy the Pittsburgh defense is looking to utilize to counter Patriots quarterback Tom Brady on Sunday—at least according to veteran linebacker James Harrison.

"I believe anybody can be rattled if you get hit enough," Harrison said, per Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk. "You can put pressure on any quarterback, to make him uncomfortable—if a quarterback is sitting back there without pressure he's going to do a good job of spreading the ball around and getting it to his receivers."

Rattling Brady is one way to counter the Patriots' precision passing attack. The Houston Texans tried to do that last week, and for long stretches, the tactic worked. Brady didn't even complete 50 percent of his passes against Houston, and he wound up tossing two picks.

According to Pro Football Focus, 18 of Brady's 41 pass attempts against Houston came under pressure. He completed only seven of those 18 attempts with a touchdown and an interception. He was also sacked twice.

The Patriots will have to focus on limiting the pressure to avoid giving Pittsburgh an early edge.

Patriots Need to Protect the Ball

In addition to protecting their quarterback, the Patriots will need to protect the football. Pittsburgh's defense is fast and reactive with a penchant for taking away the ball. The Steelers have been employing various creative looks, which has helped the team allow just 28 combined points in two playoff games.

The Steelers have also snagged two interceptions and forced three fumbles in those two games.

"We've evolved schematically, but we've probably evolved schematically because of the evolution of the individuals that execute the schematics," Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said, per Dale Lolley of the Observer-Reporter.

New England, meanwhile, was repeatedly hurt by turnovers in last week's 34-16 win over Houston. Brady tossed two interceptions, and running back Dion Lewis fumbled twice, losing one.

Those fumbles didn't go unnoticed by Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, who called out Lewis at practice this week, per Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald:

The turnovers allowed an outmatched Houston team to stay with the Patriots early in the game. Against the Steelers, they could cause a loss.

Le'Veon Bell Will Be Key

Even if the Steelers fail to pressure Brady or force turnovers, they'll still have a realistic chance of winning if they get Bell going like they did a week ago. In last week's 18-16 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, Bell racked up 170 yards rushing and helped keep the Chiefs offense off the field and out of rhythm.

Keeping Brady on the sideline might be Pittsburgh's best game plan. In six matchups against Tomlin's Steelers, Brady has passed for 19 touchdowns with zero interceptions.

If the Patriots stop Bell, the balance could tip in their favor. This year, the Steelers are 9-0 when Bell rushes for at least 85 yards in a game. The team is 1-4 when he does not.

"He's a great back," Patriots defensive tackle Malcom Brown said of Bell, per Zack Cox of NESN.com. "Many accolades, and he's a patient back. You have to be on your game to play against him.

Bell was held to 81 yards the last time these two teams met, and he'll be going up against a Patriots defense that Pro Football Focus ranks second against the run. This won't be a one-sided battle.

The flip side is that the Patriots can also try controlling the contest with running back LeGarrette Blount.

Blount might not be as explosive as his former teammate, but he is a battering ram with a nose for the end zone. He rushed for 18 touchdowns in the regular season.