Top College Basketball Programs in Danger of Missing the 2017 NCAA Tournament
A number of teams with high-class pedigrees have struggled this season, putting them in danger of not reaching the NCAA tournament. Some of them will pick up their game and get to the Big Dance, but some won't.
We selected the dozen high-profile programs that have the most to worry about regarding their postseason destination.
First, we identified the status of the school's basketball program as either medium, high or elite, which is a somewhat subjective exercise. Then we assessed the team's chances of landing an NCAA tournament berth this season as either poor, moderate or good.
The RPI of each team in jeopardy is provided as a point of reference, although it is not the only metric used by the tournament selection committee. “The common metrics most of us use are KenPom, Sagarin, LRMC, BPI, KPI,” committee chairman Joe Castiglione said last March, according to the New York Times' Marc Tracy.
In case you are wondering what that shorthand collection of initials means, KenPom is KenPom.com, which is Ken Pomeroy's ratings; Sagarin is Jeff Sagarin, whose rankings appear in USA Today; LRMC is Logisitic Regression/Markov Chain; BPI is ESPN's power index; and KPI is a ranking by Michigan State assistant athletic director Kevin Pauga.
Tennessee, BYU and San Diego State barely missed inclusion. All three are in danger of not reaching the NCAA tournament, but none met our standards to be considered one of the nation's top basketball programs.
The teams in this slideshow are listed in ascending order of the program's status.
(Statistics and records include games through Jan. 25. The source for the RPI rankings is NCAA.com. Source for teams' NCAA tournament history is ESPN college basketball history. Source for RPI rankings of the teams' opponents is ESPN.com. Source for teams' AP poll history is Collegepollarchive.com. Source for teams' basketball history is sports-reference.com.)
Iowa Hawkeyes
1 of 12
Record: 11-10 (3-5 Big Ten)
Best wins: Iowa State (home), Purdue (home)
Worst losses: Omaha (home)
RPI: 113
Program status: Medium
The Hawkeyes have been to the NCAA tournament 25 times, and they made it each of the past three seasons. However, they have reached the Sweet 16 just once since 1988 and have not advanced to the Elite Eight at all since 1987.
Iowa got to the national championship game in 1956 before losing to San Francisco, and it has been to the Final Four three times. Its most recent national semifinal berth came back in 1980, though.
The Hawkeyes have been ranked in the final AP poll 18 times, including eight times in the Top Eight. But Iowa has not finished among the Top 12 since 1987.
Chance of reaching NCAA tournament: Poor
The Jan. 12 victory over Purdue gave Iowa a ray of hope, but the subsequent losses to Northwestern (by 35 points) and Maryland have pushed the Hawkeyes to the verge of elimination as far as NCAA tournament at-large bids are concerned.
Iowa does have a win over cross-state rival Iowa State to go with its good win over Purdue, but those are cancelled out by the Hawkeyes' ugly home loss to Omaha of the Summit League.
With an RPI outside the top 100 and 10 losses, the Hawkeyes probably need to win the Big Ten tournament to get an NCAA tournament berth, and they have done nothing to suggest that is possible.
Pittsburgh Panthers
2 of 12
Record: 12-8 (1-6 ACC)
Best wins: Virginia (home), Maryland (road)
Worst losses: Syracuse (road), Miami (home), North Carolina State (road)
RPI: 48
Program status: Medium
It is difficult to place Pittsburgh in the "high" status category when its head coach leaves voluntarily to take the TCU job. However, the numbers suggest the Panthers deserve to be included among the upper crust.
Pittsburgh has reached the NCAA tournament 13 of the past 15 seasons, which puts the Panthers in high-class company. The problem has been doing something once they get there. The Panthers have not reached the Sweet 16 since 2009, and their only Final Four berth came in 1941, when only eight teams played in the NCAA tournament.
Pittsburgh has been ranked in the Top Four of the final AP poll twice in the past eight seasons and has been in the final Top 10 six times since 1988. The Panthers have finished the season unranked the past three years, though.
Chances of reaching the NCAA tournament: Moderate
The Panthers are riding a five-game losing streak that has dropped them from being a likely NCAA tournament team to one that is sitting on the bubble.
Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com still has Pittsburgh in his projected tournament field as a No. 11 seed and one of the last four teams in. However, Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com excludes the Panthers from his tournament field.
Concern is growing for this team, which was 12-3 following its Jan. 4 victory over Virginia but has not won since. Three of the losses in the five-game slump have come against unranked teams and have pushed the Panthers into a tie with Clemson for last place in the ACC.
The Panthers have no horrible losses, and the 12-point home victory over Virginia and the 14-point road win over Maryland keep them in the picture for an at-large berth. First-year coach Kevin Stallings needs to get his team out of its nosedive before the Panthers slip out of contention.
Wichita State Shockers
3 of 12
Record: 18-4 (8-1 Missouri Valley)
Best wins: Oklahoma (neutral)
Worst losses: Oklahoma State (home)
RPI: 68
Program status: High
Wichita State is sort of the nouveau riche of basketball. The Shockers were only occasional members of college basketball's upper class until Gregg Marshall arrived in 2007. But they have been to the NCAA tournament each of the past five seasons, got to the Final Four in 2013, earned a No. 1 seed in 2014 and advanced to the Sweet 16 in 2015.
Wichita State has been ranked in the final AP poll just six times, but three of them were in the past six years. The Shockers wound up No. 2 in 2014 when they entered the NCAA tournament undefeated.
The Shockers have not been a top-shelf program long enough to be considered an elite program, and even giving their program "high" status may be a bit generous.
Chances of reaching the NCAA tournament: Moderate
It would seem a team that is 18-4 and has established itself as a strong national program would be a shoo-in for an NCAA tournament berth. Not so. Neither Palm nor Lunardi has the Shockers in his projected 68-team field at the moment. Palm does not even have Wichita State among his first four out.
A look at the Shockers' results tells you why. When a team's best win is a three-point neutral-court victory over an Oklahoma team that is now 8-11, it doesn't have much to crow about. In fact, Wichita State does not have a single win over an RPI top-100 team.
All of Wichita State's losses are to teams ranked among the top 50 RPI squads, so the Shockers have no bad losses. Nonetheless, a 17-point loss to Oklahoma State and a 14-point loss to Illinois State are not attractive.
The Shockers have only one more chance to get a win over an RPI top-100 team, and that is a Feb. 4 home game against Missouri Valley leader Illinois State, which owns a No. 34 RPI ranking. Wichita State must win that game to have any shot at an at-large NCAA tournament berth.
The one factor in Wichita State's favor is it is very capable of winning the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, which would give the Shockers an automatic berth to the Big Dance.
Marquette Golden Eagles
4 of 12
Record: 14-6 (5-3 Big East)
Best wins: Villanova (home), Creighton (road)
Worst losses: Michigan (neutral)
RPI: 44
Program status: Medium
Marquette has participated in the NCAA tournament 31 times, including eight of the past 11 seasons. However, failing to reach the NCAA tournament each of the past three seasons has dropped the Golden Eagles' status a notch.
The Golden Eagles made this list of top programs based on their three Final Four appearances, including one as recent as 2003, when Dwyane Wade was their star, and their one national championship in 1977.
Marquette has been ranked in the final AP poll 22 times, although it has not finished in the Top 10 since 2003 and has not wound up in the Top Six since 1976.
Chance of reaching the NCAA tournament: Good
Marquette's postseason prospects look a lot different than they did a week ago.
Palm and Lunardi both have Marquette comfortably in their projected NCAA tournament fields with a No. 8 seed. The victory over Villanova on Tuesday gave Marquette a major boost and could be the one that ensures its inclusion in the NCAA tournament.
That upset victory came three days after Marquette's road win against Creighton. Even though Creighton was playing its first game without Maurice Watson Jr., Marquette's two recent wins transformed the Golden Eagles from a bubble team to one that would clearly be in the field if the NCAA tournament selections were made today.
Marquette remains vulnerable, however. Being projected as a No. 8 or 9 seed with six losses means a few bad losses could push Marquette back into the bubble.
Before the wins over Creighton and Villanova, Marquette was a 12-6 team that had not done much of note. Its neutral-court losses to Michigan and Pittsburgh, two other teams on the NCAA tournament bubble, did not help matters. The best thing Marquette has going for it is it has no bad losses. Yet.
Texas Longhorns
5 of 12
Record: 8-12 (2-6 Big 12)
Best wins: Alabama (home), Oklahoma State (home)
Worst losses: Kent State (home)
RPI: 139
Program status: High
The Longhorns have not done quite enough recently to be placed in the highest echelon. Nonetheless, their credentials are impressive. They have been to the NCAA tournament each of the past three seasons and in 17 of the past 18. Texas has made three appearances in the Final Four, the most recent being in 2003.
Despite their admirable 33 appearances in the NCAA tournament, the Longhorns have not performed particularly well in the event, especially recently. They have not won more than one game in any of their past seven NCAA tournament appearances, and two of their three Final Four berths came in 1943 and 1947, when only eight teams participated in the NCAA tournament. Texas has never played in a national championship game.
Texas has been ranked in the final AP poll 11 times but has never finished higher than fifth and was unranked in the final poll each of the past five seasons.
Chances of reaching the NCAA tournament: Poor
This is not what Texas officials had in mind when they fired Rick Barnes following the 2014-15 season and hired Shaka Smart. Barnes' Longhorns got to the NCAA tournament in each of his final two seasons and in 16 of his 17 seasons as Texas' head coach.
Smart got the Longhorns to the NCAA tournament in his first season in Austin, but they lost in the first round. This season, a young Texas team is virtually eliminated from earning an at-large NCAA tournament berth already, and its chances of winning a conference tournament with Baylor, Kansas and West Virginia involved are slim.
Texas' best win is a home victory over Oklahoma State, which is tied with Texas and Oklahoma for last place in the Big 12. The Longhorns have no victories over teams ranked among the RPI top 40, and they own an embarrassing home loss to Kent State, which is ranked outside the RPI top 200.
The Longhorns have lost seven of their past nine games, and the fact that five of their 11 losses this season were by three points or less does not make their resume look much better.
Reaching the NCAA tournament is the least of Texas' concerns at the moment. The Longhorns are in danger of having just their second losing season since 1992-93 and could wind up with their worst record since finishing 7-21 in 1983-84.
Oklahoma Sooners
6 of 12
Record: 8-11 (2-6 Big 12)
Best wins: West Virginia (road), Clemson (neutral)
Worst losses: Northern Iowa (neutral), Texas (road)
RPI: 128
Program status: High
Oklahoma is more than a football school, as history shows. The Sooners have been to the NCAA tournament four years in a row and 17 of the past 22 seasons. More persuasive is the fact Oklahoma has been to five Final Fours, including last season and 2002. Oklahoma has never won a national championship, but it got to the finals in 1988, when it was upset by Kansas and Danny Manning.
The Sooners have been ranked in the final AP poll 10 times since 2000, and they have finished in the Top Five six times, including No. 3 in both 2002 and 2003 and No. 1 in 1990.
Chances of reaching the NCAA tournament: Poor
One year after being ranked No. 1 for three weeks and reaching the Final Four, the Sooners are desperately trying to avoid their worst season in 36 years.
The Sooners' stunning victory over West Virginia in Morgantown, West Virginia, on Jan. 18 provided hope Oklahoma might be able to turn the season around. Oklahoma then promptly lost to Iowa State at home and to a struggling Texas team on the road to end the illusion.
Oklahoma has two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100 (Texas and Northern Iowa), and its victory over West Virginia is its only win over a top-50 team.
The Sooners' 8-11 overall record tells you the Sooners' only chance for a fifth straight NCAA tournament berth is winning the Big 12 tournament. With teams like Kansas and Baylor lurking in that event, Oklahoma will struggle to get an invitation to any postseason event.
Michigan Wolverines
7 of 12
Record: 13-7 (3-4 Big Ten)
Best wins: Marquette (neutral), SMU (neutral)
Worst losses: Illinois (road), Iowa (road)
RPI: 64
Program status: High
Michigan has been to the NCAA tournament six of the past eight seasons, including 2016. The Wolverines have reached the Final Four seven times and were the national runners-up three times, as recently as 2013. Michigan won its only national championship in 1989.
Michigan has been ranked in the final AP poll 19 times and finished No. 1 in 1965 and 1977.
Chance of reaching the NCAA tournament: Moderate
The Wolverines don't have any embarrassing losses, but they don't have any impressive wins either.
They have yet to beat a Top 25 team, and with seven losses already, they need to do something to impress the selection committee.
The 16-point road loss to Illinois looks bad, but the four-point road loss to Wisconsin may cancel that out. Each selection committee member has his or her own standards for judging teams, and a close loss to a good team on the road might matter to some. As Palm noted in January 2016 when explaining what matters to the selection committee, "A good loss is a close loss to a high quality team. Yes, that's better than getting creamed, but if all you have is good losses, you have nothing."
Palm and Lunardi both have Michigan in their projected tournament fields, but not by much. The Wolverines have a chance in their next two games against Indiana and Michigan State to improve their resume significantly.
The Wolverines can still get an at-large berth if they finish strong and get a signature win along the way. Michigan's performance in the Big Ten tournament may determine its postseason fate.
Georgetown Hoyas
8 of 12
Record: 11-10 (2-6 Big East)
Best wins: Oregon (neutral), Syracuse (road), Creighton (home)
Worst losses: Arkansas State (home)
RPI: 80
Program status: High
Georgetown seems to be trending downward in status after John Thompson Jr. had built it into an elite program. The Hoyas reached the Final Four three times and won a national championship in 1984. Through the 1980s, Georgetown was probably the nation's pre-eminent college basketball program.
Georgetown has been to the NCAA tournament eight of the past 11 seasons but missed making it last season. The Hoyas are in danger of being left out of the Big Dance in consecutive years for the first time since 2004-2005 and could miss the NCAA tournament for the third time in four seasons.
Georgetown has been ranked in the final AP poll 20 times, including a No. 1 ranking in 1985 and No. 2 ranking in 1984 and 1989. However, the Hoyas have finished in the Top 10 just once in the past seven seasons and were unranked at the end of 2011, 2014 and 2016. This is likely to be the fourth time in the past seven seasons the Hoyas finish out of the Top 25.
Chance of reaching the NCAA Tournament: Poor
The early-season win over Oregon in the Maui Invitational and the 20-point home win over Creighton stand out as beacons that represent the Hoyas' significant achievements. But even those require asterisks since the Ducks were without Dillon Brooks when they played Georgetown, and Creighton looks like a different team since Watson was lost for the season.
Otherwise it has been a season of disappointments for the Hoyas. Besides the home loss to Arkansas State, Georgetown lost by 27 points on a neutral court to an Oklahoma State team that is tied for last in the Big 12, and it has lost twice to a mediocre Providence squad, including an 18-point home loss to the Friars.
The Hoyas have lost six of their past nine games, are in ninth place in the Big East and are just 3-10 against teams in the RPI top 100.
The Hoyas probably will need to win the Big East tournament to reach the NCAA tournament, and they have given no indication they can accomplish that.
Ohio State Buckeyes
9 of 12
Record: 13-8 (3-5 Big Ten)
Best wins: Michigan State (home), Minnesota (home)
Worst losses: Florida Atlantic (home)
RPI: 67
Program status: Elite
Although Ohio State's only national title came way back in 1960, it earned elite status by virtue of its 11 trips to the Final Four. Only North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas and UCLA have more Final Four appearances, according to the NCAA Final Four records book. Two of the Buckeyes' Final Four berths came in the past 10 seasons, and the Buckeyes advanced at least to the Sweet 16 in five of those 10 seasons.
The Buckeyes have been ranked in the final AP poll 21 times and finished in the Top Seven in six of the past 11 years. They were No. 1 in the final poll four times, including twice in the past 10 seasons (2007 and 2011).
Chance of reaching the NCAA tournament: Moderate
Ohio State started the season well, its only loss in its first eight games being a two-point road defeat at Virginia. But that was followed by the inexplicable home defeat against Florida Atlantic, which is 5-13 overall, 1-6 in Conference USA play and has an RPI ranking of 333.
The Buckeyes have yet to produce a win that would garner attention. The five-point victory over Michigan State was their best win, but the game was played in Columbus and the Spartans are just 12-9. The Buckeyes have lost five of their last eight games. Their home win over Minnesota in their most recent game was significant, but the Buckeyes still lack a signature win.
Ohio State lost at home to Northwestern for the first time since 1977, and that is the kind of informational tidbit the Buckeyes would rather avoid.
The loss to Florida Atlantic is Ohio State's only loss to a team outside the RPI top 50, and the Buckeyes have enough games against ranked opponents left on their schedule to have a solid resume by season's end. Winning some of those games will be the challenge.
Syracuse Orange
10 of 12
Record: 12-9 (4-4 ACC)
Best wins: Miami (home), Pittsburgh (home), Monmouth (home)
Worst losses: Boston College (road), Georgetown (home), St. John's (home), Connecticut (neutral)
RPI: 112
Program status: Elite
The Orange have reached the NCAA tournament seven of the past eight seasons and 15 of the past 19. They advanced to the Final Four six times, including twice in the past four seasons (2013 and 2016). They were national runners-up in 1987 and 1997 and captured their only national title in 2003, with Carmelo Anthony leading the way.
Syracuse has finished in the Top 25 30 times since 1973 and has 11 Top 10 finishes. The Orange were No. 2 in the last poll of the 2012 season.
In Jim Boeheim's 40 seasons as head coach, Syracuse has failed to win at least 20 games only three times. He has never had a losing season.
Chance of reaching the NCAA tournament: Moderate to poor
Boeheim will have trouble reaching the 20-win mark in his 41st season and may even suffer his first losing season.
The 21-point home victory over Monmouth as well as the wins over Miami and Pittsburgh by double-digit margins suggest the Orange have the potential to be a decent team. But they cannot erase the odious losses to Georgetown, Connecticut, Boston College and St. John's.
In years past, losses to Georgetown and Connecticut would not be a major concern, but those are bad defeats this season. But they are not as bad as the 15-point road loss to a Boston College squad that went winless in ACC play last season or the 33-point home loss to a St. John's team that has a losing record.
The Orange's three losses to teams outside the RPI top 120 will be difficult to overcome, but they have enough talent to make a late run. Several good wins against ACC competition could put Syracuse back in the NCAA tournament picture, but it needs to boost its RPI considerably.
Connecticut Huskies
11 of 12
Record: 9-11 (4-4 American)
Best wins: Syracuse (home)
Worst losses: Wagner (home), Northeastern (home)
RPI: 143
Program status: Elite
The Huskies have made 20 NCAA tournament appearances in the past 27 years and have reached the Final Four five times. Most impressive is the fact UConn has won four national championships within the past 18 years and two within the past six seasons (2011 and 2014). No program can match that recent success. Duke is the only one close, with two national titles in the past seven seasons and three in the past 18.
The Huskies have been ranked in the AP final poll 16 times in the past 27 seasons, and that included 11 Top 10 finishes and six Top Five finishes. They were ranked No. 2 in the final poll of 2006.
Chance of reaching the NCAA tournament: Poor
Beginning the season with embarrassing home losses to Wagner and Northeastern virtually ruined the Huskies' season before it got started. That was before several key injuries have made it difficult for the Huskies to compete in the American Athletic Conference.
The only UConn result that was close to a good win was its two-point triumph at Madison Square Garden against Syracuse, which has an RPI of 114 and also is struggling to get to the NCAA tournament.
UConn has three losses to teams ranked outside the RPI top 100 and four other losses to teams outside the RPI top 75. Although the RPI can be misleading in some cases, UConn's current RPI is an accurate measure of the Huskies' season and tells you all you need to know about their postseason chances. Coach Kevin Ollie will need all his motivational powers to coax his team to a conference tournament title, which is the only way the Huskies can get an NCAA tournament berth.
Michigan State Spartans
12 of 12
Record: 12-9 (4-4 Big Ten)
Best wins: Wichita State (neutral), Minnesota (home and road), Northwestern (home)
Worst losses: Northeastern (home), Penn State (Philadelphia)
RPI: 50
Program status: Elite
The Spartans have been to the NCAA tournament 19 years in a row, the third-longest active streak behind only Duke and Kansas. Michigan State has reached the Final Four nine times, most recently in 2015, and has won two national titles (1979, 2000). That is impressive stuff that needs no further details.
Michigan State has been ranked in the final AP poll 22 times and has finished in the Top Five eight times. Its highest season-ending ranking was No. 2, most recently accomplished last season.
Chances of reaching the NCAA tournament: Good
As usual, the Spartans played a challenging nonconference schedule, and losses to Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor and Duke may have hurt their win-loss record but helped their RPI. The Spartans' road win over Minnesota and neutral-court victory over Wichita State are helpful, but Michigan State lacks a victory over a ranked team.
The inexplicable home loss to Northeastern came when Miles Bridges was sidelined with an injury, but that is a bad loss no matter how you slice it. Bridges played in the Spartans' loss to Penn State at a semi-neutral site in the Palestra in Philadelphia, and that does not look good.
The Spartans' RPI does not jibe with their win-loss record, making it difficult to determine their current chances of landing a 20th straight NCAA tournament appearance.
Lunardi has Michigan State in his projected NCAA tournament field with a little room to spare as a No. 9 seed. However, Palm does not have the Spartans in the field at all, placing them among his first four out.
We expect the Spartans to play their best basketball at the end of the season, which has been their habit. It is imperative this year, because they need several more good wins to ensure a spot in the NCAA tournament field.
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