Winners and Losers of AP College Basketball Top 25 Poll in Week 11
The No. 1 spot in the Associated Press Top 25 has been more of a curse than an honor as of late, but the Villanova Wildcats will get a second chance to defend that ranking this week, jumping over No. 2 Kansas to reclaim the top spot.
It was a big moving week elsewhere in the AP Top 25, with 10 ranked teams suffering at least one loss—most of them against other ranked teams, as there were nine games in which ranked teams faced each other.
Duke, Xavier, Minnesota and Kansas State all suffered two losses last week and paid a hefty price in the AP poll. Meanwhile, several ACC teams brought their A-game, resulting in Notre Dame, North Carolina and Louisville ranking among this week's biggest risers.
Read on for the rest of the AP poll's biggest winners and losers.
Winner: Coaches with at Least 730 Career Wins
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There are five active coaches with at least 730 D-I wins. Mike Krzyzewski tops the list with more than 1,000, but he is currently out while recovering from back surgery. Jim Boeheim is No. 2 on the list, but Syracuse hasn't been nationally relevant since late November.
The other three were among the biggest upward movers in this week's poll.
Bob Huggins and West Virginia suffocated former No. 1 Baylor, forcing 29 turnovers en route to an 89-68 rout. Even possessions that didn't end with turnovers were troublesome for the Bears. Big 12 Player of the Year candidate Johnathan Motley shot just 3-of-10 from the field in his worst game of the season. Had the Mountaineers done the same to Texas, rather than eking out a two-point win over what may be the worst team in the Big 12, they might have climbed even higher in the AP Top 25. As is, they jumped three spots into a tie with Creighton at No. 7.
Also climbing a few rungs to No. 9 were Roy Williams and North Carolina. The Tar Heels got more of a battle from Wake Forest than anyone was expecting, but they bounced back with a dominant home win against former No. 9 Florida State. Theo Pinson missed the first 16 games of the season, but North Carolina looks more complete now that he's back. He was one of four Tar Heels in double figures against the Seminoles, recording his first career double-double.
Last but not least, Rick Pitino and Louisville jumped two spots to No. 12 after wins over Pittsburgh and Duke. Pitt's Jamel Artis exploded for 43 points, but it was offense that paced the Cardinals to victory for a change. Quentin Snider, Donovan Mitchell and Ray Spalding each scored at least 11 points in both games, while the team shot 39.4 percent from three-point range for the week. Inability to consistently make jumpers has been Louisville's biggest problem. If the Cardinals can bottle this week's offensive efficiency and carry it with them for the rest of the season, watch out.
Loser: Duke Blue Devils
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Since beating Florida in the Jimmy V Classic nearly six weeks ago, Duke is winless against teams ranked in either the RPI Top 90 or the KenPom Top 110.
The Blue Devils kept that unattractive streak going with a pair of road losses to Florida State and Louisville this week. Amile Jefferson missed both games with a bone bruise in his foot. Mike Krzyzewski also missed both games and is expected to miss at least two more weeks while recovering from back surgery.
But the AP voters have seen enough.
Duke got the benefit of the doubt after the loss at Virginia Tech, dropping just three spots for struggling in that game without Grayson Allen. Since then, the Hokies have lost three out of four, making that result less forgivable for Duke by the day. Coupled with ugly-looking losses to the Seminoles and Cardinals, the Blue Devils plummeted 11 spots to No. 18.
In both games, Jefferson's absence was palpable. Harry Giles, Marques Bolden, Chase Jeter and Javin DeLaurier combined for 13 points and 16 rebounds in 87 minutes of action. Meanwhile, Michael Ojo, Jarquez Smith, Anas Mahmoud and Mangok Mathiang did whatever they wanted against Duke's frontcourt, putting up 41 points on 17-of-22 shooting.
Maybe it's for the best that those young bigs are being forced to develop, though. Even if Jefferson gets fully healthy, there's inevitably going to be a game in the NCAA tournament when he gets into early foul trouble and the Blue Devils need to rely heavily on some combination of the aforementioned quartet. But that potential long-run benefit is hurting them in the short term.
Winner: South Carolina Gamecocks
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Two weeks ago, South Carolina was reeling from its third loss in five games. After five consecutive games holding opponents to 54 points or fewer, the Gamecocks had allowed at least 62 points in five straight, including a home game against D-II Lander University.
With Sindarius Thornwell back from his six-game suspension, though, South Carolina once again looks like one of the better teams in the country, particularly on the defensive end. As a result, the Gamecocks are back in the AP Top 25 this week at No. 24.
They are one of seven major-conference teams (eight if you count Cincinnati in the American) that are still undefeated in conference play. The others are Kansas, Kentucky, Notre Dame, Arizona, Oregon and Florida. And if it feels weird to hear South Carolina mentioned with those top-notch clubs, you clearly haven't been paying attention to how well this team is playing at full strength.
Exhibiting no rust from his five-week hiatus, Thornwell has averaged 16.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.3 steals and 2.5 assists in four SEC games, including wins by double-digit margins this week at Tennessee and versus Ole Miss. Those steals might be the most important part for a team that leads the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Gamecocks held the Volunteers and Rebels to a combined 116 points in 149 possessions (77.9 points per 100 possessions) this week.
Conference foes are averaging 20.8 turnovers per game against South Carolina while shooting just 38.0 percent from the field. For all the fuss about Press Virginia's defense, the Mountaineers are only averaging 19.2 turnovers forced while allowing opponents to shoot 46.9 percent in Big 12 play. Granted, there's a big difference in quality of play between the Big 12 and SEC, but the point is these Gamecocks are elite on defense.
And if quality of opponent is what's keeping you from paying attention to South Carolina, make sure to tune in this week. The Gamecocks host Florida on Wednesday before traveling to Kentucky on Saturday. This defense against Malik Monk and De'Aaron Fox? Buckle up.
Loser: Xavier Musketeers
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Duke's tumble is going to get more attention, but Xavier is also in free-fall mode after back-to-back losses to Villanova and Butler. The Musketeers dropped from No. 15 to No. 22, and they probably would have fallen even further if not for all of the losses suffered by the likes of Minnesota, Kansas State, USC and Seton Hall.
As is the case for the Blue Devils, this is a team that probably deserves some benefit of the doubt after consecutive road losses to teams ranked in the AP Top 15. But this was something of a do-or-die week for the Musketeers that leaves us wondering whether they're any good.
The 79-54 loss to Villanova was atrocious. It was just the second time since the start of last season that Xavier was held to 60 or fewer points, thanks to shooting 6-of-32 from three-point range. And in the whistle-fest with Butler (77 combined free-throw attempts), Xavier was the less-disciplined team, missing six more free-throw attempts and committing seven more turnovers than Butler.
At this point, Xavier's resume is little more than a list of missed opportunities. The best win of the season was the neutral-court game against Clemson, which might be the only supposed-to-be-good team that has blown more chances than Xavier. Add in the Musketeers losing to 10-8 Colorado, and there's not much to like—particularly with Edmond Sumner injuring his left shoulder against Villanova and re-aggravating the injury in the closing seconds of the loss to Butler.
Getting Myles Davis back in the lineup should eventually help, but his first week of action was awful. Xavier's senior combo guard played 23 minutes between the two losses, missed each of his six field-goal attempts and otherwise only recorded two rebounds, two turnovers and four personal fouls. That's a far cry from the triple-double he had last February.
Davis had better return to form in a hurry. Xavier hosts Creighton less than two hours after this AP poll was released and will play a road game against Cincinnati next Thursday.
Winner: Maryland Terrapins
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We've hit the point in the season where the quantity of quality teams is at its nadir. Teams that we thought were good through the first seven weeks are falling apart, while teams that struggled early haven't quite had enough time to redeem themselves. Even the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in projected brackets are riddled with question marks, let alone the teams on the bubble with resumes that make you wonder why in the world the NCAA tournament was expanded to 68 teams.
So when No. 21 Saint Mary's, No. 24 Minnesota, No. 25 Kansas State and No. 25 USC combined for six losses this week, AP voters probably felt like they were scraping the bottom of the barrel to fill out the last few spots on their ballots.
At long last, that's where they found Maryland.
Ranking metrics that factor in margin of victory have been unkind to the Terrapins. KenPom has them at No. 46. Sagarin is only marginally more impressed at No. 42. But that's because nine of the Terps' 16 wins have come by a margin of seven points or fewer. Moreover, even their best wins (sweeping Illinois, vs. Kansas State, vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Indiana, at Georgetown) haven't been all that impressive.
Still, we're talking about a major-conference team with at least 16 wins and fewer than three losses. There are only nine other teams who meet that description, and Villanova, Kansas, UCLA, Baylor, Creighton, Oregon, Florida State, Arizona and Notre Dame are all ranked in this week's AP Top 15. No matter your reservations about how good Maryland actually is, it wouldn't make sense to have one member of that club outside the AP Top 25.
And now that the Terps are back in the poll at No. 25—they were ranked 25th in the preseason poll before a near-loss at home to American scared voters away—perhaps people will start paying attention to how well this young team is playing. Melo Trimble has struggled in Big Ten play (92.9 O-rating, 28.0% 3PT, 16 AST, 16 TOV), but Maryland is 4-1 in conference thanks to the play of freshmen Anthony Cowan, Kevin Huerter and Justin Jackson.
If and when Trimble heats back up and Michal Cekovsky returns from an ankle injury that has kept the big man out of the past five games, Maryland is going to be a problem for a lot of opponents.
Loser: Others Receiving Votes
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With four teams in the 20s of last week's AP Top 25 suffering a combined six losses, it should have been a big week for the others receiving votes.
For a few of those 13 teams, it was. We've already talked about both South Carolina and Maryland, which made the leap from a combined 12 votes in last week's poll into this week's Top 25. UNC-Wilmington and Nevada also survived the week without a loss, furthering their quests to get on the short list of mid-major teams that might be worthy of an at-large bid on Selection Sunday.
The other nine teams, however, saw the window of opportunity and slammed it shut.
Iowa State, Indiana, Wichita State, Dayton, Virginia Tech, VCU and SMU each went 1-1 this week, losing to such teams as Illinois State, Massachusetts, Davidson and TCU. Of the bunch, only Iowa State scored a remotely respectable win, going on the road to beat Oklahoma State. After VT's decent home win over Syracuse, the next-best victory was probably Wichita State's home win against Loyola-Chicago. Needless to say, most of those teams are no longer receiving votes.
But at least they each won a game in the past seven days.
Seton Hall and Clemson had no such luck. The former lost close road games to Marquette and Providence, while the latter extended its losing streak to four games against Georgia Tech and Virginia. Both the Pirates and the Tigers have won games away from home against South Carolina, so at least that portion of their resumes look a little better with the Gamecocks climbing into the Top 25. With the winless week, though, they both slipped from the AP Top 25 bubble down onto the NCAA tournament bubble.
Winner: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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In a conference where every team currently has an overall record of .500 or better and where 87 percent of the teams have realistic hopes of reaching the NCAA tournament, the ACC standings figure to be determined by which teams are able to win on the road. Case in point: Duke, Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Boston College are a combined 9-1 at home and 0-10 on the road in the ACC and are all bunched in the middle of the standings.
But Notre Dame is alone on top at 5-0 overall, improving to 3-0 on the road with wins at Miami and Virginia Tech this week. The Fighting Irish trailed late in each of those games before finding a way to win.
In fact, good luck finding any team that has ever been better in crunch time against conference opponents. In each of their five ACC games, the Fighting Irish were either tied or trailing with 1:52 remaining in regulation. They were also down by five with 1:52 remaining in overtime against Pittsburgh. Over the final 112 seconds of those halves/overtimes—a combined 11 minutes and 12 seconds—Notre Dame outscored its opponents 47-12. On a per-40 minutes basis, that's an advantage of 168 to 43.
Now that the Fighting Irish are working their way toward the Top 10 in the polls—they jumped five spots to No. 15 this week—it's time to start thinking about Matt Farrell's case for National Player of the Year. If nothing else, he had his "Heisman Moment" in the win over Virginia Tech, diving at midcourt to steal the ball when Seth Allen was trying to let it roll to conserve time.
Farrell already has the unofficial Most Improved Player of the Year "award" on lockdown, going from a guy who averaged 2.6 PPG and 1.6 APG as a sophomore to one putting up 14.1 PPG and 5.4 APG as a junior. We weren't sure what this team would look like without Demetrius Jackson running the show, but that's only because no one knew how much of a leap Farrell was going to make.
The Fighting Irish have three huge road games remaining: at Florida State this Wednesday, at North Carolina on Feb. 4 and at Louisville on March 4. If they can win even one of those—particularly the one against the Tar Heels—you might be looking at the ACC regular-season champs.
Loser: Minnesota and Kansas State
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Back in the preseason, absolutely nobody thought both Kansas State and Minnesota would be ranked in the AP Top 25 at any point this season—let alone in the same week. Not one of the four experts at CBS Sports had Kansas State penciled in for better than eighth in the Big 12, nor did any of them think Minnesota would do better than 11th in the Big Ten. I wasn't even that optimistic, projecting Minnesota for 12th place and Kansas State in dead last.
Yet, there they were in last week's AP poll. Minnesota was 15-2 and ranked No. 24 after consecutive wins over Purdue, Northwestern and Ohio State. Kansas State was tied for No. 25 thanks to its 13-2 record and its near-win at Kansas.
But this week, those preseason expectations made some sense, as the Golden Gophers and Wildcats went a combined 0-4 to vanish from the rankings just as quickly as they appeared.
Kansas State's week wasn't too disappointing. It led for most of the second half at Texas Tech before falling by one in the final seconds. The Wildcats also battled well at home against Baylor in a game where the Bears seemed to be in a perpetual state of leading by five to seven points. We're still waiting on this team to actually beat a quality opponent—its best RPI win of the season came at home against Omaha (RPI: 123)—but these guys can ball.
Minnesota's week was more troublesome. The Golden Gophers were blown out at Michigan State before blowing a 14-point first-half lead against Penn State. Defense has been their forte, with the offense typically doing just enough to get by, but they couldn't buy a bucket, scoring 97 points in 134 possessions. The defense was solid again this week, forcing 32 turnovers and holding the Spartans and Nittany Lions to 7-of-28 from three-point range, but it wasn't enough.
Both teams are still in decent position to reach the NCAA tournament, which is more than anyone expected. But they'll have some work to do if they expect to get back into the AP Top 25 again.
Stats are courtesy of WarrenNolan.com, KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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