Ohio State vs. Clemson: Odds and Score Prediction for Fiesta Bowl 2016

For the second time in four years, the Clemson Tigers and Ohio State Buckeyes will clash during bowl season. This time, the stakes are far higher.

Clemson and Ohio State will play in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl, one of two semifinals in the College Football Playoff. This isn't unfamiliar territory for either team. The Buckeyes won the inaugural playoff in 2014, and the Tigers finished runners-up to the Alabama Crimson Tide in 2015.

In terms of matchups, this is the more interesting of the two semifinals. According to OddsShark, the Buckeyes are three-point favorites.

To a certain extent, Ohio State and Clemson are two sides of the same coin. They have talented offenses that seemingly haven't played up to their full potential, and they boast two of the best defenses in the country.

The numbers illustrate how close the Buckeyes and Tigers are when comparing their per-game numbers and Football Outsiders' advanced metrics:

Stat	Ohio State	Clemson
F/+ Combined Rating	66.3% (2nd)	55.5% (4th)
S&P+ Offense	39.2 (12th)	39.4 (11th)
Total Offense	479.5 YPG (20th)	505.7 YPG (12th)
Passing Offense	221.1 YPG (78th)	332.6 YPG (7th)
Rushing Offense	258.3 YPG (9th)	173.1 YPG (66th)
S&P+ Defense	13.1 (3rd)	16.1 (6th)
Total Defense	282.3 YPG (5th)	313.9 YPG (9th)
Passing Defense	164.5 YPG (6th)	188.2 YPG (19th)
Rushing Defense	117.8 YPG (14th)	125.8 YPG (22nd)

This game may be decided by the success of Ohio State's running game.

If it's up to J.T. Barrett and the passing game to shoulder the load on offense, then the Buckeyes will be in trouble.

The Michigan Wolverines nearly upset their neighbors to the south in Columbus, and their work against the run was a big reason why. The duo of Curtis Samuel and Mike Weber ran for 80 combined yards on 18 carries—and 33 of those yards came in overtime.

Clemson safety Jadar Johnson offered a blunt but accurate assessment of Barrett on Tuesday, per the Associated Press (via USA Today):

"

He's pretty good. We've definitely faced better quarterbacks than him. I feel like if we can limit him on the ground, with his running, we'll be pretty good. I don't think he's a very accurate passer. I'm not taking anything away from him. I think he's a real good player but I feel like his strong point is just on his legs.

"

Should Barrett attempt 30-plus passes Saturday night—as was the case against Michigan—it wouldn't be a good sign for Ohio State's offense.

Conversely, the Buckeyes may prefer seeing Deshaun Watson heave the ball as much as humanly possible, too, despite his being among college football's top quarterbacks.

In many of Clemson's closest games, Watson was forced to throw a high volume of passes. He had 53 attempts in the Tigers' 30-24 win over Troy, 52 attempts in their overtime victory over North Carolina State and a whopping 70 attempts in their 43-42 defeat to Pittsburgh.

In those three games, Wayne Gallman had 84 combined rushing yards—granted, he left the NC State game early.

The Clemson offense is at its best when it strikes a healthy balance between the running and passing games. According to ACC Football, the Tigers are 17-0 when Gallman goes for at least 100 yards on the ground.

Watson will likely enter the Fiesta Bowl with a big chip on his shoulder. Not only will he look to atone for last year's national championship disappointment, but he'll want to prove to the Heisman voters that he was a more deserving candidate than Lamar Jackson, the Heisman winner.

"I'm the best player in the country," he said earlier this month, per ESPN.com. "That's how I think. That's how I feel. People have their own way of voting."

Watson could use that as motivation to beat Ohio State and advance to the playoff final. Taking his Heisman slight into the Fiesta Bowl could turn into problem, however, should Watson put so much pressure on himself to succeed.

Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer will have had over a month to prepare for this game.

At the 2015 Sugar Bowl, he and his staff devised a game plan that allowed Ezekiel Elliott to run for 230 yards and two touchdowns against an Alabama defense that gave up an average of 88.7 rushing yards that year.

Of course, neither Weber nor Samuel is as good as Elliott, and Tom Herman is no longer Ohio State's offensive coordinator. Still, it wouldn't be wise to bet against Meyer finding a way to avoid a repeat of the Michigan game.

Prediction: Ohio State 28, Clemson 20

Notes: Stats are courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.