Outback Bowl Betting: Florida vs. Iowa Odds, Analysis and Pick

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 0-4 straight up and 0-3-1 against the spread over their last four bowl appearances. The Florida Gators, meanwhile, haven't been much better, going 1-2 both SU and ATS in their last three bowls. In one of two Big Ten-SEC battles this bowl season, the Hawkeyes grapple with the Gators in the Outback Bowl on January 2 in Tampa, Florida.

Outback Bowl point spread: The Gators opened as two-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 21.8-21.6 Hawkeyes (College football picks on every game)

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

Florida won six of its first seven games this season, and it could have been 7-for-7 had it not blown that big early lead against Tennessee. A grudge-match victory over LSU in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, gave the Gators the SEC East title. And while Florida lost its regular-season finale to Florida State and the SEC Championship Game to Alabama, it's now 2-for-2 in bowls under coach Jim McElwain.

The Gators struggled through injuries offensively this season and averaged just 23 points per game. But that Florida defense ranks sixth in the country overall, holding opponents to just 299 yards per game, and ninth in scoring, giving up just 18 points per game.

Why the Iowa Hawkeyes can cover the spread

Iowa started 5-4 this year, beating nobody of note, losing three close games to North Dakota State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. But the Hawkeyes then won their last three games, including that earth-shaking upset of Michigan and back-to-back blowouts of Illinois and Nebraska, to secure a bowl bid for the fourth straight season.

Iowa finished with a 40-10 victory over the Cornhuskers, which knocked Nebraska out of contention in the Big Ten West. The Hawkeyes outgained the Cornhuskers that day 408-217 and outrushed them 254-90. So Iowa outgained and outrushed each of its last three opponents, going 3-0 ATS along the way.

Iowa can also struggle on offense, but the Hawkeyes still have a shot to have two rushers reach 1,000 yards on the season. And their defense ranks 24th overall, holding foes to 353 yards per game, and 10th in scoring, allowing just 18 points per game.

Smart pick

Iowa finished the regular season with three straight wins, while Florida lost its last two games, badly. Also, the Hawkeyes own the better running game. Plus, they're getting points. The smart money here at online gambling sites sides with Iowa.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in five of Iowa's last seven games against the SEC.

Iowa is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in its last four games in the postseason.

Florida is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven games in January.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.