Cactus Bowl Betting: Baylor vs. Boise State Odds, Analysis and Pick

Boise State loves bowl season, and for good reason. The Broncos are 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread over their last seven bowl appearances. Boise State hopes that good holiday fortune will continue when it takes on an embattled Baylor team in the Cactus Bowl on Dec. 27 in Phoenix.

Cactus Bowl point spread: The Broncos opened as 10-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 43.1-27.4, Broncos (college football picks on every game)

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

Plagued by problems on the field and off, the Bears are hoping to end a lost season on a high note. But theirs is a tough case to make at the moment, considering they've lost their last six games in a row.

Baylor actually started 6-0 this season, beating a pretty good Oklahoma State team along the way. But the turbulence then took its toll, beginning with a one-point loss to Texas and ending with a tough 24-21 defeat against West Virginia. The Bears, as 17-point underdogs, led the Mountaineers at the half, 14-10, before fading in the second half.

Baylor outgained West Virginia by 18 yards, the first time the Bears had outgained an opponent in their last five games.

Baylor finds itself in a tough spot, playing through injuries and a coaching change. But in a similar situation last bowl season, against North Carolina in the Russell Athletic Bowl, the Bears exploded for a 49-38 upset victory.

Why the Boise State Broncos can cover the spread

Boise State came up short in the Mountain West again this season, but it still played another fine campaign. The Broncos started 7-0, with two wins over the Pac-12 (Washington State and Oregon State) and another over BYU.

Boise State then suffered an upset loss to eventual MWC division champion Wyoming, won three more in a row, but finished with a 27-20 defeat at Air Force, which cost the Broncos a shot at the conference title.

Boise State had a chance to tie the Falcons late in the game but came up empty on four runs from inside the Air Force 5-yard line. On the day, the Broncos outgained the Falcons by 41 yards, but they also gave up a touchdown on a blocked punt. Still, Boise State has now outgained nine of its last 10 opponents.

Smart pick

Boise State struggled in its regular-season finale, but that might just set up a bounce-back performance for this bowl. Baylor, meanwhile, is starting a freshman at quarterback. The smart money here at online sports betting sites backs the Broncos.

Betting trends

Boise State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games in the postseason.

Baylor is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

Baylor is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games in December.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.