Independence Bowl Betting: NC State vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Analysis and Pick

Vanderbilt is 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in its last four bowl appearances, including a win/cover over North Carolina State in the Music City Bowl four years ago. The teams meet again for another holiday happening, hooking up in the 41st edition of the Independence Bowl the day after Christmas down in Shreveport, Louisiana.

Independence Bowl point spread: The Wolfpack opened as four-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.2-23.0 Wolfpack (College football picks on every game)

Why the NC State Wolfpack can cover the spread

North Carolina State started 4-1 this season, including a win over Notre Dame. The Wolfpack then lost four games in a row, but one loss came in overtime against College Football Playoff-bound Clemson, and two others came after giving up fourth-quarter leads against Boston College and Florida State. North Carolina State then won two of its last three, including a 28-21 upset of rival North Carolina in the finale, to achieve bowl-eligibility for the third season in a row.

The Wolfpack outgained the Tar Heels by 79 yards and outrushed them by 126. So North Carolina State has outgained and outrushed three of its last four opponents, going 3-1 ATS along the way.

Offensively, the Wolfpack are a middle-of-the-road outfit, but their defense ranks 28th in the country, allowing 356.0 yards per game, and fifth against the rush, giving up just 104.7 yards per game on the ground.

Why the Vanderbilt Commodores can cover the spread

Needing victories in its last two games to become deservedly bowl-eligible, Vandy pulled a pair of upsets, beating Ole Miss 38-17 then topping Tennessee 45-34. The Commodores trailed the Volunteers almost all day—34-24 late in the third quarter—then scored the last three touchdowns of the game to earn their first bowl bid in three seasons under head coach Derek Mason.

Vanderbilt outgained Tennessee by 92 yards and outrushed the Vols by 16 yards. The Commodores have outgained and outrushed three of their last five foes, going 3-2 ATS in the process. Vandy is also 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season, winning four of those games outright.

Smart pick

The Wolfpack own short advantages on both sides of the ball, but they still finished with just two wins in their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Commodores won four of their last six. For a game that might be decided by a field goal, the smart wager at online betting sites is the dog plus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in Vanderbilt's last four games against the ACC.

Vanderbilt is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games in the postseason.

North Carolina State is 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five games against the SEC.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.