UFC on Fox 22 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks
UFC on Fox 22 hits Sacramento this Saturday with a four-fight main card that features a slate of up-and-coming talent along with The California Kid in his retirement bout.
That's right, Urijah Faber is calling it a career. He'll do so against Brad Pickett in the second fight of the main card. Who's headlining? Paige VanZant takes on Michelle Waterson in a strawweight tilt sure to excite. The fresh faces of Sage Northcutt and Mickey Gall will co-main event in a welterweight showcase.
The B/R team is back to break it down for you and give you our predictions.
Ready? As always, Craig Amos, Scott Harris, Steven Rondina and Nathan McCarter are on the call.
Alan Jouban vs. Mike Perry
1 of 4
Craig Amos
Mike Perry has looked dangerous since joining the UFC ranks, but Alan Jouban has quietly established himself as a very tough out. Aside from a laughably bad, judges' verdict against Warlley Alves, his only defeat came against Albert Tumenov. So while Perry's record may be unblemished, he hasn't tussled with the kind of foe Jouban is used to. That difference will show. Jouban takes this one after a wild first round.
Jouban, TKO, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
Perry's got heavy knockout power, but Jouban is more well-rounded on the feet. Don't expect this to go to the ground. Expect Jouban to mark up Perry from range and in the clinch.
Jouban, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Jouban is the more established fighter, but Perry has a hot hand right now, and he is developing rapidly. He'll score another win and then make an ass of himself immediately after.
Perry, Rd. 2, TKO
Nathan McCarter
I can't in good faith sit here and take Mike Perry. Here's a compilation of his awfulness courtesy of Justin Golightly of MiddleEasy. It pretty much runs the gamut. I'll pick Jouban here and feel good about it even if he fails to pick up the W.
Jouban, unanimous decision
Urijah Faber vs. Brad Pickett
2 of 4
Craig Amos
This fight was custom-made to send Faber out on a high-note. Pickett is a fairly recognizable name, but he's not too dangerous an opponent for Faber. It could be a clear-cut decision, but I'll say Faber goes big and ends the bout with a vintage alpha-male guillotine.
Faber, submission, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
It's The California Kid's final fight after a great and interesting career. He'll be in top form for a farewell in front of the Sacramento faithful. He'll get this fight to the ground, get on Pickett's back and sink in a choke for the storybook ending.
Faber, submission, Rd. 1
Steven Rondina
Faber's approaching 40 years old, and that's a bad thing against any of the younger, hungrier bantamweights. Against Brad Pickett, though? It's no big deal, and that should be the difference between this fight and his one against Jimmie Rivera. He'll outwork and outgrapple his fellow veteran and score a 29-28 win.
Faber, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I'm not in agreement with Craig. Pickett is dangerous. He's still well-rounded and has a little pop in his hands. With that said, he won't defeat Faber. In his final in-age performance, Faber wins all three rounds en route to a clear decision.
Faber, unanimous decision
Sage Northcutt vs. Mickey Gall
3 of 4
Craig Amos
Gall is a difficult fighter to assess. He's had only three pro fight,s and each one was against a fighter making his pro debut. So even though he's looked good thus far, it's important to remember that Northcutt, flawed as he is, is a massive step up. One could be inclined to take Northcutt, as it feels like the safer choice despite his underdog status. But the way Gall has carried himself to this point inspires confidence, and I'm betting he can pass this test.
Gall, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Given the UFC's open belief that VanZant and Northcutt are both highly marketable stars, it'll be fascinating to see how this performs in the ratings department. It'll also be fascinating to see how Northcutt performs against a guy in Gall who has looked good in two UFC fights against two non-UFC-caliber fighters. I'll take my chances with Gall, who should at least have a clear ground advantage.
Gall, submission, Rd. 2
Steven Rondina
Gall has his skills, but Northcutt is further along in his career and owns a significant striking advantage. He'll drill his takedown defense, keep himself upright and score enough points to win over the judges.
Northcutt, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
I'm a bit surprised by how certain some are that Gall will win this fight. As B/R's Patrick Wyman tweeted, only Northcutt has actually faced UFC-level opposition. Gall beat an MMA writer in his debut and then a debuting, 40-year-old, professional wrestler.
I'm also in disagreement with Rondina's assessment that Northcutt is further along in his career. There are big questions surrounding the coaching he's getting from his father. According to Bleacher Report's Jeremy Botter (h/t Jake Hughes of Fightland), dear ol' dad pulled him from an elite camp, Tri-Star, and Ilya Grad discussed his issues with him in an interview with MMA Fighting's Luke Thomas. Meanwhile, Gall is trucking along in his progression.
I'm too hesitant to take Northcutt with these coaching questions. It can really stunt the growth of a fighter. Gall looks like the real deal, but this is finally his chance to prove it by going in and putting Northcutt through the meat grinder.
Gall, TKO, Rd. 3
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Paige VanZant vs. Michelle Waterson
4 of 4
Steven Rondina
There's absolutely, positively no question that Michelle Waterson is a better fighter than Paige VanZant. Frankly, I don't know that there's an area of the cage where PVZ is technically better. The trouble is that Waterson is an atomweight, fighting above her weight class. VanZant will use her size and strength advantage to grind out an ugly, boring win.
VanZant, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
I'm mostly of a mind with Steven, here, but VanZant won't win just because she's bigger. Her tenacity and pace will also factor in. The fight could well be ugly, though.
VanZant, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Everyone, including VanZant herself, knows full well that she's not in this main event because of any fighting talent. Waterson is. Size advantage, schmize advantage. I'm picking the smaller Waterson to score on VanZant coming in and winning a few crucial scrambles.
Waterson, unanimous decision
Nathan McCarter
When I broke this fight down earlier in the week, I stated the smart money is on VanZant. But I still didn't pick her.
It'll be veteran savvy that wins the day. VanZant will get sloppy in the later rounds, and she'll forget about Waterson's underrated submission game. Waterson escapes with a W only due to a rookie mistake.
Waterson, submission, Rd. 4
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