Armed Forces Bowl Betting: Louisiana Tech vs. Navy Odds, Analysis and Pick

Navy is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in bowls the last three seasons; Louisiana Tech is 2-0 both SU and ATS in bowls the last two seasons. Two teams that apparently know what they're doing come bowl season meet when the Midshipmen battle the Bulldogs in the Armed Forces Bowl on December 23 in Fort Worth, Texas.

Armed Forces Bowl point spread: The Midshipmen opened as one-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 39.6-35.3 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game)

Why the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs got off to a 1-3 start this season, which included a near-upset of Arkansas. But a seven-game winning streak, during which they hit the 50-point mark four times, earned Louisiana Tech the C-USA West Division title. The Bulldogs then played Western Kentucky to a 41-41 tie late into the third quarter of the conference championship game but came up short in a 58-44 defeat.

Louisiana Tech senior quarterback Ryan Higgins threw the ball 57 times for 502 yards, three touchdowns and one interception against the Hilltoppers. He's hit the 400-yard mark passing five times this year—the 500-yard mark twice—and owns a 37-8 touchdown-interception ratio.

On the season, the Bulldogs rank eighth in the nation in total offense, averaging 516.1 yards per game, and fifth in scoring at 44.0 points per game.

Why the Navy Midshipmen can cover the spread

The Mids started 3-0 this year before falling to Air Force. They then reeled off six wins over their next seven games, beating Houston, Memphis and Notre Dame along the way, and won the AAC West. While they lost their last two games—to Temple in the conference championship game and a nice Army team—they're in a bowl for the fifth straight season.

Injury-riddled Navy fell down to the Black Knights 14-0 at the half, rallied to take a 17-14 lead early in the fourth quarter but allowed a long Army touchdown drive and could not respond in losing to the Cadets for the first time since 2001.

Sophomore quarterback Zach Abey, pressed into service in place of the injured Will Worth, threw for 89 yards on 10 attempts and ran for 73 more, including a 41-yard scoring scamper that briefly gave the Mids the lead. He also threw two interceptions, though, as he did in relief against Temple.

Smart pick

Navy just hasn't been the same since Worth went down. The extra practice might help with Abey, but if he throws two more picks, the Mids are in trouble. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, might put up 40. The smart money here on the Vegas odds bets the Bulldogs.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in seven of Louisiana Tech's last eight games.

Louisiana Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five games in December.

Navy is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against Conference USA.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.