Bleacher Report's Expert Predictions for College Football Bowl Season
Bowl season is upon us, which means it's time for Bleacher Report's panel of college football experts to break it all down.
What game should you pay extra special attention to? Who will make a 2017 Heisman Trophy statement? Who will take home college football's biggest prize for 2016?
Analysts Adam Kramer, Barrett Sallee, Christopher Walsh, Greg Couch and Michael Felder go on the record with this bowl season's expert picks.
Will Washington Upset Alabama?
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Adam Kramer
I don’t see it. I love this Washington team and think a month off will give head coach Chris Petersen plenty of time to concoct some interesting concepts. I like the Huskies' wideouts a lot and believe they could find some separation. But will they have time to get that separation?
That's the issue here. Alabama is just so athletically superior in so many places, which is not to say that Washington isn’t gifted or deserving. But the depth, particularly along the line of scrimmage, will be a problem.
I could see Washington hanging close, absolutely. I would be surprised by an upset.
Barrett Sallee
Washington has the pieces in place to do what teams need to do to beat Alabama in wide receivers John Ross and Dante Pettis, plus a quarterback in Jake Browning who can stretch the field deep. I question Browning's composure, though.
In his two biggest games, he hasn't had it.
He threw two picks in the loss to USC in November and went 9-of-24 in the Pac-12 title game win over Colorado. Yes, he threw two touchdown passes. But one of those was a "YOLO" ball while falling down that Ross picked out of the air one-handed. Alabama's defense would have made that a pick-six because that's what Alabama's defense does.
Give me Alabama in a game that is closeish for a while but turns sideways in about a five-minute span in favor of the Crimson Tide. Basically, the same script that Alabama has followed all year.
Christopher Walsh
No. The Huskies have had a terrific season, but if the Crimson Tide's defense is on its game, it could be a long night for Washington. Basically, to move the ball, Browning is going to have to sit in the pocket and attack downfield, while Alabama's pass-rushers are the toughest he's faced this season. If they get into his head, it's game over, and Alabama shut out Michigan State in last year's semifinals.
Greg Couch
I'm remembering the Alabama-Notre Dame championship game a few years ago when the Irish front seven was supposed to put up a real fight against Alabama's offensive line. And it worked...for one play. Then, it was over. I'm seeing the same thing here with Washington's bullying offensive front against Alabama's defense. Washington has had a great year and deserves its spot in the playoff, but it feels like the mandatory west-of-the-Mississippi entry that really isn't as good as the other three.
Michael Felder
No. Alabama is going to be too deep for Washington to finish the drill, although I am excited to see that old Petersen who has time to prepare and can make something big happen through creativity. Punching with Alabama for 30 minutes is something Washington can do. Hell, it is something we've seen several teams do. The problem is the final 20 to 23 minutes of the game, where 'Bama has worn on you and you don't have another body to put out there, so close calls turn into big plays turn into touchdowns.
Who Wins, Clemson or Ohio State?
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Kramer
Can I pass? No? Well, that's unfortunate.
For me, this is a brutally difficult game to pick. Both teams have looked invincible at times and ordinary at others. Both quarterbacks can be video game cheat codes on any particular night.
But I feel like Ohio State's defense, as good as it has been, has flown strangely under the radar. And in a game with so many fascinating, talented pieces, it feels like it is still the most dominant unit.
I don’t feel particularly confident in picking against Clemson, but I am going to anyway. I absolutely cannot wait to see what happens here.
Sallee
Clemson, big. Really big.
This game is a major matchup problem for Ohio State. The Buckeyes offensive line was a revolving door against Michigan (eight sacks) and Penn State (six), and quarterback J.T. Barrett averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt against Power Five opponents, according to CFBStats.com.
The Tigers defensive front led by Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence will get in the backfield, rattle Barrett and prevent him from exposing a Tigers secondary that has been picked on at times this year, including in the loss to Pitt and win over Virginia Tech.
Quite honestly, I'm not sure how the Buckeyes are favored in this. Clemson rolls back into the national title game.
Walsh
Head coach Urban Meyer's having a whole month to prepare for the Tigers makes Ohio State a tempting pick, but Clemson has the feeling of unfinished business on its side and the better players at key offensive positions, including quarterback (more on that later). Both defenses are good, but Clemson appears to have an advantage on special teams, especially with returner Ray-Ray McCloud.
Couch
This is about timing, and I think Clemson is rolling with momentum now more than Ohio State is. Earlier in the year, I'd have taken Ohio State in this game. But Barrett just doesn't feel like the same guy he used to be. But I'm sounding a lot more definitive than I feel. Close game. Clemson wins.
Felder
Clemson is going to win. It has a more consistent offensive attack, and it has the ability to push vertical with a bevy of wide receivers who can win one-on-one battles. Defensively, this team is going to be as difficult up front as Penn State and Michigan were for the Buckeyes. It's going to be a long day for some of the offensive linemen if they don't figure out how to protect against Clemson's monsters.
Will J.T. Barrett or Deshaun Watson Have a Better Performance?
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Kramer
Statistically speaking, it'll probably be Deshaun Watson. He's an incredible player, and I would be shocked if he doesn’t throw for more yards. As stated previously, however, I believe it will come in a losing effort.
Barrett is such a fascinating player who we judge to an unfair degree. Has his passing game progressed as much as I thought it would by now? Probably not. And yet, while I doubt he'll have the same numbers as Watson, I'm not sure any player will have a bigger impact on the game.
(This is me basically avoiding an answer, but it depends on what you’re looking for in a performance.)
Sallee
Watson, for sure. He broke the 1,000 rushing-yard mark last year en route to the national title game and has amassed just 529 this year despite being healthy all year.
That was likely by design and will change in the playoff with the title on the line. Watson will have some success through the air but will top the 125-yard mark on the ground and score twice against the Buckeyes. He'll lead his team to its second straight College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
Walsh
Unless Watson starts throwing passes to the opposition, which is a real concern since he's already had 15 picked off, he'll be the game MVP. Ohio State's offensive line has had some issues, and how it holds up against the Tigers front seven might be the key matchup. But Ohio State's offense wasn’t in sync down the stretch, and should the game become a shootout, it'll work to Watson’s advantage.
Couch
Watson. He hasn't progressed from last year, but it feels as if he and his coaches have done all they can to show he can be a great passer and not just a runner. That's probably a mix of wanting to showcase him to the NFL, keep him healthy and keep him happy. Just a feeling, but look for him to start running wild now in the big games. It will work.
Felder
Watson is going to play the way he always does under pressure, like a wizard. I'm looking forward to his, during the "winning time," deciding that losing is not an option for his team and just doing it himself. This should be one of his bigger rushing efforts as Clemson recognizes, without him to create space and control the safeties, it is an uphill fight to get running back Wayne Gallman opportunities to slash against the Ohio State front.
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Who Will Be the Best Freshmen During Bowl Season?
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Kramer
I love this question so much. I wish I could give you 10 answers. I also feel good giving you one, and you don’t have to wait long to see him.
How does San Diego State plan to block Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver? That is going to be a joy to watch in lovely Las Vegas. Oliver, to me, has been one of the best players in all of football—forget about the whole freshman thing.
He may not have some of same statistical dominance as some others, but no freshman will have more of an impact on a game plan this bowl season.
Sallee
Ed Oliver came up big for Houston all year, particularly in the ultravisible late November game against Louisville prior to leaving with an injury. In the bowl game against San Diego State and running back Donnel Pumphrey, he will solidify himself as not only one of the nation's best freshmen, but one of its best players regardless of classification.
Make sure you watch the Las Vegas Bowl on the opening Saturday of bowl season. It's going to be phenomenal.
Walsh
You could do this question with the playoff teams alone: Alabama's Jalen Hurts and Jonah Williams, Clemson's Dexter Lawrence, Ohio State's Mike Weber and Washington's Taylor Rapp. My answer is in that group because even if someone like Oliver has a huge game, he's still playing in the Las Vegas Bowl. They're all good, but I expect Williams to be stellar for Alabama at right tackle. With the advantage of having extra time to prepare, Hurts will be even better.
Couch
Experience still counts, but it's nothing like it used to be. Plenty of freshmen walk in the door ready to go, physically and mentally. Of course, Hurts might win the national title. But Oliver kept making tackles in the backfield all year and was a first-team Associated Press All-American. Not sure if anyone will be watching Las Vegas, but it's a great run defense against against Pumphrey, who is second in the nation in rushing.
Felder
The same as the guys who have been the best freshmen all season long, Oliver, Lawrence and Williams. Those three have been dominant compared to the other guys playing ball this season—not just inserted into the starting lineup, but as three linemen putting together elite seasons. Oliver and Lawrence have been two of the top defensive tackles in football, period. Williams has been the best OL on the No. 1 team in the nation. There have been other freshmen who showed flashes for the future, others who have been protected so they are not hurting their teams in big spots, but these three have done big-man work out of the gate.
Which Non-Playoff Matchup Are You Most Looking Forward To, as a Fan?
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Kramer
The obvious answer is the Rose Bowl. The right answer is also the Rose Bowl.
I love that we're talking about a game between quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Trace McSorley—two unknowns to start the season—meaning this much. It's been that kind of year for both, and I am anxious to see what gives when USC and Penn State, two of the hottest teams in the nation, meet.
The Alamo Bowl also has a chance to be special. Colorado has been such a brilliant story, and Oklahoma State should be a fun, final challenge on a brilliant year.
And in terms of sheer ridiculousness, the Boca Raton Bowl, which is a real thing, is what you should watch. Memphis and Western Kentucky could very well score 110 points. Seriously, watch this one.
Sallee
The Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl at 11 a.m. ET on New Year's Eve will be a tasty appetizer to the playoff feast later in the day.
Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Louisville Cardinals, led by head coach Bobby Petrino, will get a full month to prepare for an ultratalented LSU defense led by Dave Aranda—one of the best coordinators in the county.
The chess match when Louisville has the ball is the most intriguing thing about this entire bowl season.
When LSU is on offense, go grab a bagel, some coffee, a Bloody Mary or something else. You won't miss much. Just make sure you're back in time to watch LSU punt it to the Cardinals because that's when things are going to get awesome.
Walsh
Even if running back Leonard Fournette doesn’t play, it's the Citrus Bowl. I want to see how Jackson fares against LSU's defense. LSU senior linebacker Kendell Beckwith isn't expected to play, which obviously works to Jackson's advantage, but I think he’s still going to have a lot of trouble against the Tigers.
Couch
Rose Bowl. Penn State. USC. If the playoff committee were picking the four best teams right now, these two would probably both be there. It took both of them a little time to find their way. But both will be playing hard now to make a point that their programs are back and, in Penn State's case anyway, they feel the committee robbed them. That's assuming Penn State is motivated by a snub and not demoralized by it.
Felder
Oklahoma State and Colorado in the Alamo Bowl. I'm not a super nostalgic fan, but it is fun to see the old Big Eight mates get back together for a game in the state of Texas. Practically speaking, watching Cowboys quarterback Mason Rudolph push to prove he belongs in the NFL is going to be interesting as the Buffs secondary has several guys who will be playing on Sunday. Plus, after losing to Washington in bad fashion, head coach Mike MacIntyre's team will certainly be focused.
Which Team Is on Highest Upset Alert?
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Kramer
In a game that a total of seven of us will probably watch, I believe Wake Forest can hang with Temple, interim coach and all, in the Military Bowl. First, the Demon Deacons are indeed a bowl team. This is important for those who might not have known. They are a lot better than the dreadful team they were over the past few years. This was a nice season.
Wake, according to OddsShark, is nearly a two-touchdown underdog in this matchup. While Temple is more talented, the loss of head coach Matt Rhule is significant. This game could be ugly enough that Wake Forest might just hang around for a while.
Sallee
Grab those seven points the oddsmakers are giving Florida State if you want. You won't need them, though, because the Seminoles will beat the Michigan Wolverines outright in the Capital One Orange Bowl.
Florida State's defense had trouble this year with more exotic offenses, but it is just fine inside a phone booth—which is where Michigan typically likes to play.
Deondre Francois will shine at quarterback for the Seminoles, make himself known as a 2017 Heisman Trophy contender and lead head coach Jimbo Fisher's crew to a big win in Miami Gardens.
Walsh
South Florida has already won 10 games. Led by junior quarterback Quinton Flowers, the offense broke nearly every school record this season. However, you never know how a team is going to react when there's a coaching change. Willie Taggart has already left for Oregon, and the remaining coaches are all working on their resumes. The Bulls are ripe for an upset against South Carolina, a team that's on its way up, in the Birmingham Bowl.
Couch
I'm going with Wisconsin here. Bowl games are usually about the most energized team. Western Michigan knows the Cotton Bowl is a statement game for them. Not sure how big of an upset this is, but Michigan is in deep trouble against Florida State too.
Felder
Navy might not close as favorites, but it better watch out. Obviously, the Midshipmen have dropped some bodies because of injury and are licking their wounds following the tough loss to Army, so heading into a game against Louisiana Tech is not going to be easy. These are two teams on opposite ends of the style spectrum, and both are looking to not end 2016 with a three-game losing streak. Navy has to come correct, but this should be a fun one to check out.
Which Player Is Most Likely to Boost His 2017 Heisman Campaign in Bowl Season?
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Kramer
The Darnold hype train is real, and I want on it. One could argue this train began long before the Rose Bowl, but it will likely gain traction during this marvelous broadcast Jan. 2. Seriously, how amazing is the Rose Bowl in HD?
Darnold should play well at quarterback for USC, something he has done basically since he took over. On the topic of this game, both McSorley and running back Saquon Barkley could toss their names in the mix as well for Penn State.
Did I mention you should watch this?
Sallee
Like Kramer, I'm going to go with Darnold.
I'll go one step further down the road, though. He will establish himself as the Heisman favorite in a big win over Penn State in the Rose Bowl.
Yes, I'm aware that Louisville's Jackson—the reigning Heisman Trophy winner—will be back. But that climb is much tougher for returning winners, and voters are always looking for new candidates to latch on to.
Walsh
I’m going with two quarterbacks who could create some momentum as well as a lot of offseason buzz: Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Darnold. Both are facing defenses that are considered good, with Auburn ranked 16th nationally in passing efficiency defense and Penn State 30th, per NCAA.com. The chances the quarterbacks' head coaches unleash them in the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl? One-hundred percent.
Couch
Easy: Barkley. The nation will be watching, and Barkley probably deserved to be in the running this year already. He'll start next year as one of the favorites.
Felder
Whoever wins the Rose Bowl. McSorley and Barkley putting a win over USC on their belts would certainly push them into the 2017 Heisman spotlight, leaving a good taste in folks' mouths and taking a winning streak into next season. However, if Darnold gets the win, he can position himself squarely in the hunt. The Rose Bowl has a lot riding on it when discussing future Heisman possibilities.
Whose Final Game Are You Looking Forward to the Most?
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Kramer
I’m not sure when it will come, but I cannot possibly describe how much I have enjoyed watching Deshaun Watson throw and run footballs. It is art.
There is such a calm in the way he does things, even when plays break down. He’s just so smooth and such a wonderful ambassador for the sport.
Whether it ends against Ohio State, Alabama or Washington—whether we have one or two games remaining—I will celebrate all that Watson is and has been before he leaves early for the draft.
Sallee
Jonathan Allen, the stud defensive end from Alabama.
He is the heart and soul of the Crimson Tide defense and will look to cap off a stellar career with a second straight national title.
I'm fascinated to see how Chris Petersen and the Huskies staff deal with Allen with a month to prepare, and how Allen responds to what will undoubtedly be the story of the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.
Walsh
He doesn’t get anywhere near the credit of his defensive teammates, but Alabama linebacker Ryan Anderson has had a huge season for the Crimson Tide. For anyone who enjoys good defense, both Allen (Bednarik Award) and Reuben Foster (Butkus Award) have been a joy to watch, as has linebacker Tim Williams, but look for Anderson to go out with a bang. He leads the Crimson Tide in tackles for a loss (17), forced fumbles (three) and is third in sacks (eight), yet he was largely overlooked for accolades.
Couch
Probably Watson because he's primed to play the best he ever has as long as he's willing to run enough. But the true answer is Lane Kiffin. Here's to hoping he becomes himself again as he becomes The Man at FAU.
Felder
Desmond King, the cornerback for Iowa. Since he started as a freshman, he's been one of my favorite players in college football. Just a monster at the position who plays the way I'd like the position to be taught. He's physical and explosive, and he sees the ball in coverage. King is willing to work zone or man and is not afraid to insert himself in the run game. Obviously, he won't get much work against Florida's anemic offense, but seeing him close out his career at Iowa is something I'm looking forward to—almost as much as how pumped I am to discuss him during draft season.
What Will Be the Highest-Scoring and Lowest-Scoring Bowl Games?
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Kramer
Let’s start with the lowest-scoring contest, because Iowa and Florida are going to play a football game that is going to be super punt-y. There seems no other way to describe it. Both teams are near the bottom in total offense. Both play pretty good defense. If that isn’t a sell, I don’t know what is.
In terms of points scored, look no further than the Boca Raton Bowl. Memphis and Western Kentucky may break that darn scoreboard and play football for five hours. I cannot wait.
Sallee
The Outback Bowl between Florida and Iowa has 4-2 written all over it. Please, please end with a 4-2 score. OddsShark says the over/under is 40 for that game. Unless they play 16 quarters, I'm not sure how they even flirt with that.
Give me the Boca Raton Bowl between Memphis and Western Kentucky for your basketball-game-on-turf score of the bowl season. The over/under for that is dancing around 80, per OddsShark. That might be hit by halftime.
Walsh
My first reaction for highest-scoring bowl game was “Whichever one Louisiana Tech is playing,” but the pairing with Navy offers a nice contrast that could keep the scoreboard from looking like a pinball machine. Meanwhile, the matchup won't hinder either team when Memphis and Western Kentucky play in the Boca Raton Bowl. For lowest-scoring game, Wake Forest vs. Temple in the Military Bowl probably won’t feature a lot of points, especially if the weather is bad.
Couch
Florida-Iowa in the Outback Bowl will be the lowest-scoring game. Both teams have strong defenses and the type of offense that makes an opponent's defense look great. High scoring? Memphis-Western Kentucky in the Boca Raton Bowl. Expect 100 points in this game. Memphis will probably try to get there all by itself.
Felder
Let's go with Tulsa and Central Michigan. Tulsa's defense is willing, so it will be on the Chips to put the ball into the end zone. On the other side, Tulsa's going to score and score quickly, which is going to give CMU plenty of chances to figure out how to keep pace.
Are There Too Many Bowl Games?
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Kramer
No. Goodness no. I want more. I want as much football as you are willing to give, regardless of the records.
Here’s the thing. You don’t have to watch if you don’t want. It's up to you. For those who love football (or gambling on football), this is Christmas. For those who are only in this for the playoff, knock yourself out.
The kids like it. Coaches like it. Many of us like it. Let them play. Change the channel if necessary.
Sallee
Of course not. Bowl games are engineered to be good matchups between two teams that are competitively similar. You know, that thing we crave during those cupcake weekends during the regular season.
On top of that, the players who aren't compensated for their football efforts get a free trip, a swag bag, can pool per diem money and have some fun. You can't be pro-paying players and anti-bowls. It's impossible.
If you don't want to watch a game on a random Tuesday night during the holiday season, fine. But spare me with the "participation trophy" argument. The playoff is the postseason that matters with the trophy that matters. Bowl season is all about fun, and I like fun.
Walsh
Yes, yes, yes. There are three bowl teams with losing records, two of which will still have a losing record regardless if they win or lose. Specifically, there are 41 bowl games including the College Football Playoff National Championship, meaning that 80 teams are still playing. At 5-7, North Texas will play in the Heart of Dallas Bowl against a team it already faced this season, Army. Mississippi State is also 5-7 and will play Miami (Ohio) in the St. Petersburg Bowl. Hawaii (6-7) gets to stay at home and oppose Middle Tennessee in the Hawaii Bowl. Whatever the tickets cost for these games is too much.
Couch
Well, yes, there are. There isn't enough out there for some of these bowls to keep surviving. But it's all market-driven. If people watch, then the games make enough money to survive. And if they have enough customers, then why shouldn't they?
Felder
No. If you think there are, don't watch. But the reality is, guys are playing free football, and these bowl games are the only shot they have to get a semblance of a payday. People are going to bring their "everyone gets a trophy" philosophy that, honestly, is pretty insulting to just about anyone playing sports. There isn't a 5-7 team or a 7-5 team or a 9-3 team that believes it just won the title by getting into a bowl game. That isn't how it works. The quicker people stop pretending mediocre teams don't know they're mediocre, the quicker I can stop answering this question in every radio spot.
Which Conference Will Dominate Bowl Season?
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Kramer
This could be a special season continued for the Big Ten, even though the conference is not favored in all of its games.
The Rose Bowl could be an issue for Penn State, a really good team. But Ohio State and Wisconsin are in a great position to win. As is Michigan. Iowa and Nebraska are very live underdogs.
The tired narrative that the Big Ten folds come bowl season should die a bit this year.
Sallee
The SEC will have the best bowl season. And no, it won't be a referendum on conference power. It'll just be a sign of favorable matchups.
Alabama will make the national title game with a Peach Bowl win over Washington, Auburn will upset Oklahoma thanks to a bruising rushing attack in the Sugar Bowl, and LSU will shut down Heisman winner Lamar Jackson in the Citrus Bowl. Those will be three major bowl wins for the SEC, and they will be supplemented by several more in lower-tier games.
Walsh
There probably won’t be a conference that will dominate the bowl season like the SEC did last year when it won nine of 11 games by a combined score of 383-171 (the two losses were by Florida to Michigan and Texas A&M to Louisville). However, don’t be surprised if the SEC has the most bowl wins again, especially if Alabama repeats as national champion. In terms of winning percentage, the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA and Pac-12 have the most favorable matchups and could all go 5-2 if Washington beats Alabama and makes the title game.
Couch
I think the Big Ten is the best conference this year. But due to the matchups, it's not going to have the best bowl season. It all lines up nicely for the SEC with LSU playing Louisville and Alabama being the never-ending commercial for the conference.
Felder
The Mountain West. San Diego State gets Houston, and Donnel Pumphrey has a shot at history. Big PR win coming there if it can pull the win out and get an all-time leading rusher. Throw in Wyoming, Colorado State, New Mexico, Air Force and Hawaii, and the conference can do some good work this bowl season. Boise State will get a shot at Baylor, a team in total transition, which would be a big win for the conference. Look for the Mountain West to win five or six of its possible bowl games.
Which Team Will Win the National Championship?
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Kramer
Give me the chalk. I’ll take Alabama. I would love to offer up something creative or different, but I don’t have anything of substance.
This is not a perfect team, but it is just so good in so many places. And while there exists the possibility that a true freshman quarterback struggles on stages this big, I don’t think Hurts has to be brilliant or even great for Alabama to win.
That is why it will win the national title. There is just so much there.
Sallee
Give me Clemson over Alabama in an upset.
The return of Mike Williams outside for the Tigers will make this passing attack even more dangerous than it was last year when Watson threw for 405 yards and four touchdowns in the title game loss to the Tide.
Watson will go out in style by attacking Alabama's secondary deep and opening up running lanes for himself and Gallman. Clemson's defense will be the first to rattle Hurts.
Walsh
Alabama. I know most college football fans are sick of seeing the Crimson Tide holding up championship trophies, but watching Nick Saban’s ongoing dynasty is comparable to when Tiger Woods was winning everything in golf. A popular question back then was would you bet on Tiger or the field? Because of Alabama’s defensive front seven and ability to affect the quarterback, the national championship is again Alabama’s to win or lose. The bigger the stakes, the better Saban’s record.
Couch
I really like the way Clemson has pulled it together. Last year's loss to Alabama could have been crushing. And maybe there was a little hangover to get over early this year. Look for the same two teams in the title game this year, only a little lower-scoring: Clemson 27, Alabama 24.
Felder
I picked Clemson a year ago, and it came up just short thanks to some mistakes on special teams and in the secondary. I'm going to roll with the Tigers again this season in a likely rematch against Alabama. Watson, in possibly his final game, builds on his epic performance from a season ago by getting the ultimate prize, a win for the Tigers.
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