Boca Raton Bowl Betting: Western Kentucky vs. Memphis Odds, Analysis and Pick

Western Kentucky is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread over its last four postseason games, including back-to-back bowl victories. The Hilltoppers seek a fifth straight postseason win without departed coach Jeff Brohm when they meet Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl on December 20.

Boca Raton Bowl point spread: The Hilltoppers opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 50.3-29.7 Hilltoppers (college football picks on every game)

Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers can cover the spread

WKU comes in hot, riding a seven-game winning streak after beating Louisiana Tech 58-44 to win a second straight C-USA championship. The Hilltoppers led the Bulldogs at the half 38-27, fell down 41-38 but closed out the game with a 20-3 run and covered as 12-point favorites.

Western Kentucky came up with 656 yards of offense, 235 on the ground and 421 through the air. Quarterback Mike White threw three touchdown passes against one interception and now owns a 34-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season. Meanwhile, running back Anthony Wales popped off for 209 yards and four scores, upping his TD total for the season to 26.

The Hilltoppers have now outgained and outrushed each of their last six opponents, going 5-1 ATS along the way. Following the victory over Louisiana Tech, Coach Brohm left to rebuild at Purdue. So WKU will play this bowl under defensive coordinator Nick Holt.

Why the Memphis Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers finished their regular season with consecutive victories, including a rousing 48-44 upset of Houston in the finale. Memphis grabbed a 21-10 lead in the first quarter, fell down 44-41 in the fourth quarter but drove 72 yards in the last minute-and-a-half to a game-winning touchdown with just 20 seconds to go.

On the day, the Tigers piled up 555 yards of offense. They were led by quarterback Riley Ferguson, who went 30-of-45 for 409 yards and four touchdowns, including a 10-yarder to Anthony Miller for the win. For Miller, it was his 15th catch of the day and second score.

Memphis has now hit the 30-point mark in each of its last five games.

Smart pick

Western Kentucky holds several statistical edges, but Memphis played the tougher schedule. Plus, the Hilltoppers are playing through the coaching change, which can be tough to do at this time of the season. The smart money at sports betting sites here takes the Tigers, plus the points.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in seven of Memphis's last 10 games.

Memphis is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against teams with winning records.

Western Kentucky is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against the AAC.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.