The Complete Guide to UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson
The UFC returns to Sacramento, California, this Saturday with a decent offering on Fox. Paige VanZant takes on Michelle Waterson in a strong strawweight main event. The company has invested a great deal in promoting VanZant, and this matchup represents an escalation in competition that will determine whether the 22-year-old is ready to face the division's elite.
The rest of the UFC on Fox 22 card features action matchups, if not much in the way of name value. In the co-main event, talented youngsters Sage Northcutt and Mickey Gall face off in a meeting of hyped prospects.
Sacramento's Urijah Faber draws Brad Pickett in the former longtime WEC champion and four-time UFC title challenger's retirement fight. The main card opener also features a barnburner between action fighters Alan Jouban and Mike Perry.
The same trend toward fun pairings dominates the undercard. Keep an eye on the Fox Sports 1 headliner between Henrique da Silva and Paul Craig, which should be a violent light heavyweight clash, and the Fight Pass main event featuring veteran bantamweights Eddie Wineland and Takeya Mizugaki.
There are a few prospects to watch as well. The touted Irene Aldana makes her debut against Leslie Smith on FS1, and welterweight up-and-comer Colby Covington takes on prospect-killer Bryan Barberena shortly afterward.
Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Welterweights
Bojan Velickovic (14-3-1; 1-0-1 UFC) vs. Sultan Aliev (13-2; 0-1 UFC)
Serbia's Velickovic opens the evening's festivities against Russia's Aliev in a solid welterweight bout. Aliev hasn't fought in nearly two years, when he fell to Kenny Robertson by devastating knockout in his UFC debut back in January 2015. Velickovic won his debut against Alessio Di Chirico but drew with Michael Graves in his last fight.
Velickovic is a crisp southpaw striker with a nice repertoire of punch-kick combinations and decent wrestling skills as a backup. Aliev is a combat sambo specialist with a strong takedown game who does good work from top position and packs serious power in his hands.
Prediction: If it's a range striking bout, Velickovic will win handily; if it's full of takedowns and scrambles, it's Aliev's fight. The former seems a bit more likely, so the pick is Velickovic by decision.
Flyweights
Fredy Serrano (3-1; 2-1 UFC) vs. Hector Sandoval (12-3; 0-1 UFC)
Colombia's Serrano, a competitor in freestyle wrestling at the 2008 Olympics, draws Team Alpha Male's Sandoval in a fun flyweight scrap. Serrano fell short against Ryan Benoit in his last outing, while Sandoval dropped his short-notice debut against Wilson Reis, so both fighters need a win here.
Serrano is an outstanding athlete and retains his slick wrestling skills, which he complements with creative if not fundamentally sound strikes on the feet. Sandoval throws hard head-body punching combinations and is a strong wrestler. On the mat, he likes the front headlock and throws punishing strikes from the top.
Prediction: Serrano is the better wrestler and athlete, but he'll have trouble with Sandoval's combination game. The American will take a decision.
Bantamweights
Eddie Wineland (22-11-1; 4-5 UFC) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (21-10-2; 8-5 UFC)
Bantamweight veterans headline the Fight Pass portion of the event when the American Wineland takes on Japan's Mizugaki. Wineland lost two in a row to Johnny Eduardo and Bryan Caraway but looked rejuvenated in a knockout win over Frankie Saenz in July. Mizugaki is on a rough streak, posting losses in three of his last four. Cody Garbrandt knocked him out in August.
Wineland is a crisp boxer with a punishing jab, nice combinations and clean head movement that sets up a potent counter game. Outstanding defensive wrestling keeps him standing. Mizugaki employs a mixture of combination boxing and takedowns, especially from the clinch. He's not a dangerous puncher, but he works at a good pace.
Prediction: Wineland will keep this standing and outbox Mizugaki to take a decision.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Women's Bantamweights
Leslie Smith (8-7-1; 2-3 UFC) vs. Irene Aldana (7-2; 0-0 UFC)
Mexico's Aldana, a highly touted prospect, makes her UFC debut against the veteran Smith. Cris Cyborg brutalized Smith in her last outing, and prior to that she alternated wins and losses. Aldana comes from Invicta, where she compiled a 3-1 record, with her only loss coming against champion Tonya Evinger.
Smith is a brawler at heart, but she puts together crisp head-body combinations and works behind a nice jab. Aside from serviceable takedown defense, that's the extent of Smith's game. Aldana is a crisp, aggressive boxer with legitimate power in her hands and a high-volume approach. She could stand to connect her head movement to her offense a bit more, but she's promising.
Prediction: This is a soft increase in competition for Aldana. Smith will give Aldana exactly the kind of fight she wants—a high-volume firefight on the feet—but Aldana has more power and can match Smith's pace and technique. Aldana will knock out Smith in the second round.
Lightweights
Josh Emmett (10-0; 1-0 UFC) vs. Scott Holtzman (9-1; 2-1 UFC)
Emmett, who trains with Sacramento's Team Alpha Male, draws fellow prospect Holtzman in a fun fight at 155 pounds. Holtzman won a decision over Cody Pfister in his last outing, while Emmett debuted with a close win over Jon Tuck.
Emmett is a strong wrestler and a crisp combination boxer with power in his hands. Holtzman is an excellent athlete and can do a bit of everything, from striking to wrestling to grappling, but he's especially good in the clinch.
Prediction: If Holtzman can work takedowns, this is his fight, but Emmett is a better wrestler and combination striker. Emmett will take a decision.
Welterweights
James Moontasri (9-4; 2-3 UFC) vs. Alex Morono (12-3; 1-0 UFC)
Moontasri looks to get back on track after a loss to Alex Oliveira, while Morono tries to build on his robbery decision win over Kyle Noke at UFC 195 last January. Moontasri might be cut with a loss, and it wouldn't be surprising if Morono were as well.
Flashy striking is Moontasri's calling card. The former taekwondo competitor is an outstanding athlete with great speed and explosiveness, and he launches a variety of spinning kicks with regularity. Morono is a solid striker with nice punching combinations and the occasional spinning strike of his own.
Prediction: Strong wrestlers have been Moontasri's kryptonite, but that's not Morono. Moontasri will land a knockout shot in the first round.
Welterweights
Bryan Barberena (12-3; 3-1 UFC) vs. Colby Covington (10-1; 5-1 UFC)
Prospect meets prospect-killer as the highly touted Covington goes for his third win in a row. Covington finished Jonathan Meunier and Max Griffin after suffering the first loss of his career to Warlley Alves, while Barberena defeated Alves and Sage Northcutt to put together a two-fight winning streak of his own.
Barberena is a rugged, durable fighter. He's aggressive and gets after his opponent with punching combinations, grinding in the clinch and stifling work from top position. Covington is an explosive, athletic wrestler with authoritative takedowns and powerful strikes. He's not a great technician on the feet, but he's improving.
Prediction: This is all about pace. Covington will want to stifle Barberena, keeping him on his back and avoiding the kind of pressuring fight that Barberena will try to impose on the feet. Barberena is not a bad defensive wrestler, but he's probably not good enough to stuff Covington, who'll win by decision.
Featherweights
Cole Miller (21-10, 1 NC; 10-8, 1 NC UFC) vs. Mizuto Hirota (17-7-2; 0-2-1 UFC)
Veteran featherweights clash in a fun matchup. Miller, a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter 5 way back in 2007, has put together a long, productive UFC career, but the last several years haven't been kind to him; he has lost two of his last three, and the other was a no-contest. Hirota lost two fights in the UFC several years ago and made his way back to the promotion with a draw against Teruto Ishihara in September 2015.
Miller is long for the division at 6'1" and puts his height to good use with a long jab and cross on the feet. He's not much of a wrestler, but he has a wicked guard. Hirota is a stout wrestler with solid takedown defense and a nice combination punching game on the feet.
Prediction: Miller's reach could be a problem, but if Hirota can get inside with combinations and takedowns, he'll be in good shape. The Japanese fighter will take a decision.
Light Heavyweights
Henrique da Silva (12-0; 2-0 UFC) vs. Paul Craig (8-0; 0-0 UFC)
Brazil's Da Silva meets Scotland's Craig in a fun light heavyweight matchup to headline the Fox Sports 1 segment of the event. The Brazilian has finished both of his UFC outings, knocking out Jonathan Wilson in June and then submitting Joachim Christensen in October. Craig has beaten solid competition on the European scene and has finished all eight of his wins.
Craig has a great frame for the division at 6'4" and puts his height to good use with cracking kicks at range and strong leverage in the clinch. He's a submission specialist with an active, dangerous guard, but he isn't a great wrestler. Da Silva is an aggressive fighter who throws vicious kicks at range and does punishing work in the clinch with knees, elbows and short punches.
Prediction: If Craig can get this to the mat, he has a good shot at finding the submission, but if it stays standing, it's Da Silva's bout to lose. The Brazilian will find the knockout in the second round.
Alan Jouban vs. Mike Perry
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Welterweights
Alan Jouban (14-4; 5-2 UFC) vs. Mike Perry (9-0; 2-0 UFC)
A firecracker of an action fight opens the main card as Jouban draws the rising Perry in a great matchup of entertaining welterweights. Jouban has won two in a row since a knockout loss to Albert Tumenov, while Perry has won his first two outings in the UFC by knockout.
Jouban is a southpaw striker. A crisp right jab gauges the distance and scores for him, but his crushing left hand and left kick do most of the heavy lifting. He carries enormous power in all his shots, and this makes it easy to miss his raw speed and crisp fundamental technique. Accuracy is a strength, and Jouban excels at placing his shots directly on the chin or ribs.
The Louisiana native likes to exchange a bit too much, though. He wins more of them than he loses thanks to his power and durability, but he's also hittable in the pocket and could stand to pick his spots better.
If Jouban is good at range, he's even better in the clinch. When he gets his hands on his opponent, he drops a steady stream of knees and elbows while maintaining control with collar ties, frames, underhooks and head pressure. He rarely looks for takedowns, but he's a solid defensive wrestler and does good work from top position when the fight goes there.
Perry is a puncher and one with physical gifts to back up a surprisingly advanced game for such an inexperienced fighter. Speed, explosiveness and especially power are the basis for what Perry wants to do in the cage, and he has the durability and fight IQ to cover up some of the gaps in his skill set.
Aggression is Perry's hallmark. He wants to get right in his opponent's face and makes good use of kicks to cut off escape angles while tossing out a hard jab to force him backward. When he wades into the pocket, he has a knack for drawing out shots and countering, though he could stand to do a better job of moving his head. Defense isn't Perry's strong suit, and at some point that's going to catch up with him.
For now, though, Perry overwhelms his opponents with pressure, combinations and power. He's a good enough defensive wrestler to stay standing, and when he ends up in top position, he shows strong posture and a good base that make him a vicious ground striker.
Betting Odds
Perry -135 (bet $135 to win $100), Jouban +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Prediction
For as long as it lasts, this will be a barnburner. Both fighters love to exchange and have the power to seriously hurt their opponent. The difference should be Jouban's depth of craft and especially his clinch game, which will give him a safety blanket and an additional layer that Perry doesn't yet have the skills to deal with. Jouban will find the knockout in the third round.
Urijah Faber vs. Brad Pickett
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Bantamweights
Urijah Faber (33-10; 9-6 UFC) vs. Brad Pickett (26-12; 5-7 UFC)
Veteran bantamweights will meet in this outstanding matchup. According to Brian Campbell of ESPN.com, this will be Faber's retirement fight, and he couldn't have picked a better opponent to face in front of the hometown Sacramento crowd.
Pickett has been a credible action fighter and fringe contender for years, so this should be a fun, winnable bout for one of the best to ever put on a pair of MMA gloves. It wouldn't be surprising if Pickett retired afterward, either.
The last couple of years haven't been kind to either fighter. Faber lost consecutive fights for the first time in his career, dropping him to 1-3 in his last four, as first Dominick Cruz and then Jimmie Rivera won decisions. Pickett is just 1-4 in his last five, with notable losses to Iuri Alcantara and Thomas Almeida. The lone win in that stretch was a controversial decision over Francisco Rivera.
Faber remains one of the craftiest, most dangerous fighters in the sport, but he has lost a step. While still a great athlete, he's slower, his reflexes aren't quite as sharp, and he has a little more trouble pulling the trigger than he used to.
These are rough developments for a fighter whose game depends on his ability to pick the right spot to explode into a burst of offense, whether that's a strike, takedown or submission attempt. Transitions are the heart and soul of Faber's game, and he has grown less able to create those situations. This has led to his getting stuck striking at range more often, and that's not his strength.
On the feet, Faber is competent. He's quick and has excellent timing, which allows him to pot-shot with single punches and kicks. This doesn't produce much volume, though, and while he has power in his strikes, it's hard to win decisions this way. For the most part, Faber's strikes serve to cover his entries into the clinch or his level changes.
Faber is punishing when he gets ahold of his opponent. His double-leg takedown remains explosive, and he's a stout clinch fighter. Landing strikes as he enters or exits is a strength, and he finds creative ways to use his takedowns to set up strikes.
Scrambles are the best part of Faber's grappling game. He's a punishing ground striker, and this forces his opponents to move underneath him. When they try to get back to their feet, Faber can spin to the back, sneak in punches, knees and elbows or grab a front headlock, from which he hits a beautiful guillotine.
Pickett is a jack of all trades who does everything well. On the feet, he's a crisp combination puncher who packs legitimate power in his hands. Exchanging in the pocket is a specialty, and it's where his head movement and ability to string multiple shots together in an intelligent sequence plays best.
He's hittable, though, and his desire to push a quick pace means he's often there to be hit. His chin isn't what it used to be, either.
Wrestling is another strength for the Englishman. He has an excellent double-leg takedown and nice timing on his entries. Competent takedown defense keeps him standing, but he has struggled with stronger wrestlers.
On the mat, Pickett looks to work control from top position. He has a strong base and excellent posture, which makes him a solid ground striker, and he has good technique on his passes. Submissions used to be a strength of his game, but he hasn't used them much in recent years.
Betting Odds
Faber -440, Pickett +350
Prediction
This is a well-matched fight that should produce excellent action. Pickett has a shot if he can make this a pure striking matchup. He's the better combination puncher and works at a better pace. The American probably won't give him that kind of fight, though, and it's more likely Faber will work some takedowns and create scrambles. Faber will find a submission in the second round.
Sage Northcutt vs. Mickey Gall
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Co-Main Event: Welterweights
Sage Northcutt (8-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Mickey Gall (3-0; 2-0 UFC)
The UFC has high hopes for both of these young fighters, and when Gall called out Northcutt after his win over CM Punk at UFC 203 in September, matching them up made too much sense. Both have accumulated hype, though Northcutt took a beating in the court of public opinion after his loss to Bryan Barberena in January. Either could blossom into a star for a promotion that needs a fresh face.
Northcutt is an exceptional athlete blessed with incredible speed, strength and power. A longtime karate practitioner, he prefers to circle at range, sticking his opponent with jabs, front kicks and a vicious side kick to the leg and body. When the mood strikes, he darts into range with a powerful punching combination.
He has improved his combination flow recently and does a better job of going from punches to kicks and vice versa. Defense isn't his strong suit, though. Northcutt is hittable as he blitzes and relies on range and angles to avoid his opponent's shots.
Transitions are the best part of Northcutt's game. He excels at using his punches to cover his level changes, and his double-leg takedown is explosive and finished with authority. Once he gets his opponent on the mat, Northcutt immediately looks to pass, especially to the back, in the transition. He also has a nasty front headlock and is a creative scrambler in general.
With that said, Northcutt's game tends to fall apart if he's forced to wrestle or grapple for an extended period and can't create transitions. He can stuff an initial shot but struggles to defend chained takedown attempts. He can sweep but has a hard time stopping skilled guard-passers who can establish control on top. Basic errors of defense and judgment are common.
The 20-year-old Texan is still learning, and he has shown improvements from fight to fight. To this point, though, they haven't been improvements that fix the obvious issues with his game.
It's hard to say much with certainty about Gall. He has only three pro fights under his belt, none of which has lasted longer than three minutes. None of those three opponents had ever fought professionally before facing him. Those aren't knocks on Gall's skills, but we need to bear them in mind when evaluating him. He could turn out to be a great fighter, but that level of competition doesn't tell us much.
Here's what we can say: Gall is big for the division at 6'2" and seems to be a good athlete, with some speed and great brute strength. He has a basic idea of what he's doing on the feet, working a jab and a few kicks, but this isn't the strength of his game. When he decides to shoot a takedown, he shows nice drive and good timing, but we've never seen him put chains together or work against a skilled opponent.
Grappling is where Gall shines. He has a legitimate brown belt and competitive experience against high-level competition, and that shows in his fights. Once the fight hits the mat, he passes quickly and showcases strong control. When he postures up, he packs brutal power in his ground strikes. These strikes open up his transitions to the back and his submission game, especially the rear-naked choke.
Gall is only 24 and seems to be well-trained, so we should expect substantial improvements from fight to fight.
Betting Odds
Gall -125, Northcutt +105
Prediction
It's surprising to see Gall favored by such a large margin. On paper, Gall would seem to present a stiff challenge. He's a skilled grappler, and that's exactly what has troubled Northcutt in the past.
Fights don't take place on paper, though. Northcutt has fought four times in the UFC, and every opponent he's faced has been miles better than anyone Gall has ever fought. Experience is a real factor. Understanding how to fight out of bad spots and make decisions under pressure is something every fighter needs to learn.
Maybe Gall has those things already, and we just haven't had the opportunity to see them, but it's a mistake to operate from the assumption that he does. If he can't hit a double and establish control right away, how will he react? How will he respond if Northcutt slams a side kick into his breadbasket? We don't know.
It wouldn't be surprising if Gall got the submission, but these questions are legitimate and pressing. Northcutt will stick and move on the feet and stay calm when Gall does get him to the mat on his way to winning a 29-28 decision.
Paige VanZant vs. Michelle Waterson
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Main Event: Strawweights
Paige VanZant (7-2; 4-1 UFC) vs. Michelle Waterson (13-4; 1-0 UFC)
VanZant, one of the UFC's hopes to become the next big thing, gets an increase in competition quality as she faces the veteran Waterson (30) in an excellent headlining matchup.
Waterson has fought only once in the UFC, submitting Angela Magana in July 2015 before suffering a serious knee injury that forced her out of a bout with Tecia Torres at UFC 194. Prior to that, she held the Invicta atomweight title before dropping her belt to Herica Tiburcio. VanZant suffered a one-sided loss to Rose Namajunas in December 2015 but got back on track with a big knockout of Bec Rawlings in August.
The winner will be in position to move up the strawweight ladder. There's no clear-cut next challenger for Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and either Waterson or VanZant could wind up in a title bout sooner rather than later.
At just 22 years old, VanZant is still making substantial improvements from fight to fight. Athleticism, durability and pace are her hallmarks, and for now she relies on those physical gifts to see her through the substantial gaps in her skill sets.
Striking isn't VanZant's strength. She's aggressive and willing enough to engage—perhaps too willing—but she's neither powerful nor crafty. As she walks into range while slinging kicks and punching combinations, VanZant keeps her head right on the center line and rarely attacks on angles, which makes her vulnerable to any opponent who is willing to stand her ground and throw counters.
While VanZant takes a great punch, she eats far more than she should. There's no way around the fact that she's a subpar defensive fighter who doesn't move her head and is content to cover up and move straight back.
Grabbing ahold of the clinch as she moves forward or as her opponent pressures allows VanZant to avoid some of this damage. She's more relentless than a pure technician inside, but she's surprisingly strong and adept at using head pressure and the fence to her advantage as she lands a steady stream of knees, elbows and punches. Attrition in these grinding clinch positions is the best part of her game.
VanZant gets most of her takedowns from the clinch, preferring trips and especially hip tosses. She's not a great defensive wrestler, though, and gives up too many takedowns.
Generally speaking, VanZant isn't too worried about giving up takedowns. She's an excellent scrambler and is often happy to go to the ground if it means she can create a transition. In those in-between spaces, VanZant excels at sweeping and getting to top position or spinning to the back. On top, she works at a great pace and has a decent array of passes.
Waterson is a diverse, dangerous and well-rounded fighter. She's fast and athletic and packs real power in all her shots while still working at an excellent pace.
She is most comfortable in the striking phase. Her footwork can be spotty, especially when she faces heavy pressure, but for the most part she circles well and cuts excellent angles through the cage. She has great combination flow and puts together tricky sequences of punches and kicks, moving from one to the other and then back in fluid succession.
A steady stream of jabs and front kicks keeps her opponent at her preferred range, and she has remarkable timing when she chooses to sit down and drop a combination on a pursuing foe. That timing also makes her a dangerous counterpuncher, though Waterson could stand to move her head more.
While she's not big for the division at 5'3", Waterson is physical when she gets her hands on her opponent. She throws vicious knees on the inside and has a slick array of hip tosses that she completes with great speed and explosiveness. Defensive wrestling isn't her strongest suit, though.
A lightning-quick guard, especially her triangle-armbar series, makes up for Waterson's less than bulletproof takedown defense. Her setups are diverse and quick, and she can hit a variety of finishes, preferring to go belly down. She excels at using them to sweep as well. In general, Waterson does fantastic work in the scrambles.
Betting Odds
VanZant -115, Waterson -105
Prediction
There are two X-factors here: the combination of Waterson's injury and layoff and VanZant's improvements. If the knee injury and time away from the sport have diminished Waterson in any way, and VanZant has used the three-plus months since her last fight to spruce up some of her skills, it's the younger woman's fight to lose.
If what we've seen on tape stays stable, though, this is Waterson's fight to lose. VanZant doesn't have the kind of measured, technical pressure footwork and striking arsenal to back a fighter with Waterson's footwork into the fence, and in open space the gap between Waterson's stick-and-move arsenal and VanZant's less imposing combination game is vast.
With those caveats in mind, Waterson will punish VanZant with combinations on her way to winning a five-round decision.
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. For the history enthusiasts out there, he also hosts The Fall of Rome Podcast on the end of the Roman Empire. He can be found on Twitter and on Facebook.
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