Cotton Bowl Betting: Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin Odds, Analysis and Pick

Every other season or so, Wisconsin plays a team from the Mid-American Conference, giving those fellow Midwestern schools tidy payouts to come visit Madison. And why not? The Badgers have won their last 17 meetings with teams in the MAC.

But Wisconsin would be wise to be wary of the next MAC outfit on its schedule, the unbeaten Broncos of Western Michigan, when they meet in the 81st edition of the Cotton Bowl on Monday, Jan. 2 at 1 p.m ET.

Cotton Bowl point spread: The Badgers opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (view line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.0-30.9 Broncos (view college football picks on every game).

Why the Western Michigan Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos are riding a 15-game winning streak into Arlington, Texas. Western Michigan won its last two games last year and then ran through a 12-0 regular season this year. It outlasted Ohio in the conference title bout 29-23. WMU scored the first nine points of the game, pushed its lead to 23-7 at the half, let the Bobcats get within 26-23 midway through the fourth, added a field goal and then came up with a game-saving pick in the final minute.

Western Michigan outgained Ohio 404-251 and won time of possession by a lopsided margin of 38 minutes to 22.

On the season, the Broncos have outgained 12 of 13 opponents, including two Big Ten teams in Illinois and Northwestern. In fact, Western Michigan is already 2-0 both straight up and against the spread versus the Big Ten this year, beating both the Illini and the Wildcats, and 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Big Ten.

Why the Wisconsin Badgers can cover the spread

The Badgers will try to bounce back after giving away the Big Ten title game to Penn State 38-31. Wisconsin jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the Nittany Lions and pushed that to 28-7 in the second quarter but got outscored from there 31-3.

On the evening, the Badgers outrushed Penn State 241-51 and held the ball for almost 37 minutes. But the defense played its worst half of the season against quarterback Trace McSorley, who burned Wisconsin for four touchdown passes. In the end, running back Corey Clement got stuffed on a 4th-and-1 with Wisconsin driving well into Penn State territory in the final minute.

Prior to that defeat, the Badgers had won six games in a row and covered nine of their previous 12.

Smart pick

These teams played three common opponents this season—Illinois, Northwestern and Akron—and statistically speaking, the Broncos measured out nicely against what Wisconsin did. Plus, Western Michigan gets to play David against the Badgers' Goliath. The smart money in this spot is on the Broncos.

Betting trends

Wisconsin is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games.

The total has gone under in Western Michigan's last three games against the Big Ten.

Western Michigan is 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games.

All college football lines and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.