Valero Alamo Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Oklahoma St. vs. Colorado
The No. 10 Colorado Buffaloes will take on the No. 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys in the 2016 Valero Alamo Bowl in a matchup of former Big 12 foes.
For both teams, this game offers a chance to get right after losses that cost them a conference championship.
Colorado dropped its chance for a playoff berth in a 41-10 loss to Washington. The Buffaloes struggled mightily on both sides of the ball, especially after quarterback Sefo Liufau was forced to miss time with a leg injury.
Things only went marginally better for Oklahoma State in its bid for the Big 12 crown. Quarterback Mason Rudolph turned in his worst performance of the year, allowing Oklahoma to barrel through the Pokes for a 38-20 victory.
After losing out on a Rose Bowl bid, coach Mike MacIntyre's Buffaloes will try to end a storybook season with their third win over a ranked team this season. For coach Mike Gundy's Pokes, a second-straight 10-win season is on the line.
Date: Thursday, Dec. 29
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Place: Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas
TV: ESPN
Spread: No line (per OddsShark.com)
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7As you can see, these two teams represent their conferences well. The Cowboys pile up the points and yardage, as is commonplace with Big 12 teams. The Buffaloes of the Pac-12 take the more traditional approach, relying on steady execution.
The Colorado defense will have to return to form after getting torn apart by Washington.
Keys to Victory for Oklahoma St.
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Hit the Deep Ball
Much of quarterback Mason Rudolph's success depends on hitting deep to his talented set of receivers. As we saw against Oklahoma, he falls apart when it's not there.
In the 38-20 loss in the Bedlam Series, Rudolph completed just 11 of his 25 passes for 186 yards. And that was with two big plays to James Washington and Jhajuan Seales, which accounted for 98 yards of Rudolph's anemic production.
What's also noteworthy about those plays is they led to half of Oklahoma State's points for the day. When Rudolph was finally able to get the ball downfield, the offense briefly found its groove. Without it, he looked lost.
If Rudolph gets time to work down the field, we should see a much better performance from him.
Finish in the Red Zone
As the earlier graphic showed, Colorado has been great in the red zone this season, allowing points on just 31 of 42 opportunities. Oklahoma State will have to be better in this area to come away with victory.
Though the Cowboys have converted 89 percent of their red-zone trips, they haven't done a good job finishing with touchdowns. Per cfbstats.com, their 62.5 touchdown percentage is 57th in the country. These struggles were evident in the Pokes' loss to Oklahoma in which they were unable to get six on any of their three trips inside the 20.
Squandering opportunities like that against a team like Colorado is a sure way to get beat.
Keys to Victory for Colorado
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Get After Mason Rudolph
By almost every metric, Rudolph is a top-tier college quarterback. He can make any throw, knows when to push it downfield and doesn't throw picks.
However, he can succumb to pressure.
Rudolph relies heavily on working downfield with James Washington and the rest of his receiving corps. Oklahoma was able to blow this up by bringing pressure throughout the day, forcing the junior to make quicker, more accurate throws underneath. The end result was an 11-for-25 day with no touchdowns.
The Cowboys allowed 31 sacks this season, so there's a clear path for the Buffaloes to make this a long day for Rudolph.
Establish the Run
Colorado's rushing lines in losses this season—64 yards versus Michigan, 96 versus USC, 82 versus Washington.
In wins this season, the Buffs have averaged over 225 yards per game behind the dual-threat ability of Liufau and tailback Phillip Lindsay. When these can't get going, you get games like the loss to Washington where Liufau threw three picks.
With almost four weeks for Liufau to get healthy, we should see these guys get going again.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Key Players for Oklahoma St.
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RB Justice Hill
He's not the biggest running back, but Justice Hill is a fun talent who has given a major boost to the Oklahoma State offense.
Just 170 pounds, Hill became the first freshman in school history to run for over 1,000 yards. He plays tough and is unafraid to work between the tackles, averaging over 95 yards per game since he took over lead duties in Week 4.
We'll see senior Chris Carson get work in this one, but Hill's the game-changer.
WR James Washington
A 6'1" burner, Washington has shown both his enormous upside and low floor throughout the season. The Pokes need him at his best in this one.
We've already discussed Rudolph's need for the deep threat, and Washington provides that in spades. The junior can flat-out fly down the field and does an excellent job both tracking the ball and positioning himself to make the play.
With a 296-yard game on his 2016 resume against Pittsburgh, Washington has shown the ability to simply take over. He has to be at his best for Oklahoma State to get its offense on track.
DT Vincent Taylor
With Emmanuel Ogbah off to the NFL, someone had to step up for Oklahoma State's defensive front. Junior Vincent Taylor has answered the bell.
A 310-pound defensive tackle, Taylor has done a little of everything this season. He leads the Pokes in both tackles for loss and sacks, and he even blocked two extra points in a win over Texas.
Taylor will anchor a unit that will have to chase Liufau around all night.
Key Players for Colorado
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QB Sefo Liufau
Without any doubt, Liufau is the most important player on the Colorado roster. The question is whether he'll be 100 percent in time for this one.
When healthy, Liufau has been electric for the Buffs. He's an adept deep passer, and his ability to pick up yardage both on scrambles and designed runs is a key element of this offense.
Liufau's running has also made him susceptible to injury, and it's cost the Buffs. Liufau has sat out two games, missed most of the loss to USC and his ankle really limited him in the blowout loss to Washington.
If he's healthy, Colorado has a chance to make a statement over one of the Big 12's better teams. If not, this could be a tough night for Mike MacIntyre's squad.
LB Jimmie Gilbert
Going up against a team that's given up 31 sacks on the year, star linebacker Jimmie Gilbert should eat in his final collegiate game.
Gilbert's been excellent all season, piling up 9.5 sacks and 13 pressures on the year. The senior should be licking his chops leading up to this one, as Oklahoma's pass-rushing linebacker Ogbonnia Okoronkwo just lit up this same Oklahoma State team for two sacks in Week 14.
What They're Saying
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Old Friends
This will be the first meeting between the Cowboys and Buffaloes since they were Big 12 foes in 2009. Oklahoma State got the last laugh in a 31-28 win, but Colorado owns the all-time series with a 26-19-1 record.
"The Big 12 is spending the holidays with its exes," said ESPN's Max Olson, noting that Texas A&M and Kansas State will also face off in the Texas Bowl.
One would expect some hostility from other reunions of former Big 12 foes, but this one seems peaceful so far.
"We're happy to return for what promises to be an exciting matchup between two top-15 teams," said Oklahoma State athletic director Mike Holder. "We have a long history with Colorado and have a great deal of respect for the people there."
Buffs Bummed About Missing Rose Bowl
Despite winning the Pac-12 South, Colorado was passed over for the Rose Bowl by USC, which knocked off the Buffaloes 21-17 earlier in the season. Receiver Bryce Bobo voiced his displeasure on Twitter:
""How do we not go to the rose bowl when we are the PAC 12 South Champs ? Smh but good luck USC. Do y'all thug !
MacIntyre kept his focus on what he can control, telling The Denver Post that he and his team were "excited" to play in the Alamo Bowl.
All About Liufau
Discussing the importance of quarterback Sefo Liufau, ESPN's Kyle Bonagura did not understate the senior's role.
"[Backup] Steven Montez is a capable backup with a bright future," said Bonagura. "But perhaps no one in the Pac-12 meant more to his team this year than Colorado’s senior quarterback."
Liufau's health will be the biggest storyline as we build toward this game.
Prediction
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This could change depending on Liufau's health, but it's hard to imagine a motivated Colorado dropping this game.
First off, this is a great matchup for the Buffs. Colorado enters the game with the No. 13 pass defense in the nation, and the Buffs have the pass rush to take advantage of Oklahoma State's shaky protection. And after seeing the Pokes get gassed for 341 rushing yards by Oklahoma, Colorado could find a get-right spot for the run game.
Then there are the external factors. Colorado is dissatisfied with getting jumped for the Rose Bowl selection, something Mike MacIntyre is sure to use to keep his team focused.
Unless Mason Rudolph can work the short and intermediate routes more effectively, the Buffs will remind the country why they're a Top 10 team.
Prediction: Colorado 33, Oklahoma St. 21
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