Rose Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Penn State vs. USC
Penn State (11-2) just missed out on the College Football Playoff, but the Rose Bowl is a heck of a consolation prize. The Nittany Lions earned the right to play in this game by winning the Big Ten Championship Game, and they will be matched up against USC (9-3) from the Pac-12.
The Trojans' 1-3 start is well in the rearview mirror now, as they have rattled off eight consecutive wins and played as well as anyone during that stretch. Winning the Rose Bowl would be a huge achievement for first-year head coach Clay Helton, given that USC hasn't even played in this game since 2009. In fact, according to Joey Kaufman the Orange County Register, the Trojans have appeared in the Rose Bowl under every U.S. president since 1929 except Barack Obama.
With Helton and Penn State head coach James Franklin both trying to build momentum within their programs, there will be a lot on the line in "The Granddaddy of Them All."
Viewing Information
Date: Jan. 2, 2017
Time: 5 p.m. ET
Location: Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, California
TV: ESPN
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7As shown by the stats, the matchup to watch will be USC's rejuvenated passing attack against Penn State's secondary, which has given up just 175 passing yards per game.
Additionally, Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley has been as good as anyone over the last two weeks, and if USC's defense has a weakness, it's against the pass. Cornerback Adoree' Jackson is a phenomenal player, but as a unit, the Trojans rank 65th in that category.
Keys to Victory for Penn State
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McSorley Making Plays Downfield
Penn State's sophomore quarterback has exploded for 760 passing yards and eight touchdowns in the last two games, and he has to continue to make plays down the field for the Nittany Lions to win. He was able to do that against Wisconsin, throwing touchdowns from 70, 40 and 33 yards out. USC's pass defense ranks 65th nationally, so that will be an area that Penn State tries to attack.
Generate Pressure on the Quarterback
Sam Darnold is in the midst of a phenomenal freshman campaign, and USC's offensive line has played a big part in that. The Trojans quarterback has been sacked just five times all year, so generating pressure up front is a major key for Penn State. Evan Schwan and Garrett Sickels have combined for 12 sacks, and as a unit, the Nittany Lions are tied for 10th nationally with 39 sacks.
Keys to Victory for USC
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Darnold Directing the Offense Efficiently
The Trojans don't need a superhero-like performance from their young quarterback to win this game. They need him to limit the mistakes and get the ball in space to playmakers like wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Darreus Rogers.
Having success on the ground will be important to take some pressure off Darnold, and USC has been able to do that for the most part this season.
Can USC Limit Penn State's Run Game?
The Nittany Lions can hit on big plays, but putting them behind the chains will be important. Limiting running back Saquon Barkley and Penn State's run game will likely put McSorley in a number of long-yardage situations on third down, and that's where USC can force turnovers with its athletic defenders. The Trojans need to win up front and not allow Penn State to control the tempo by running the ball.
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Players to Watch for Penn State
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Saquon Barkley
With 1,302 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, Barkley's stat line speaks for itself. The sophomore has rushed for over 200 yards in two different games this year, but he has just 247 yards on the ground in the last four contests. McSorley has made up for that with stellar quarterback play, but the Nittany Lions will need Barkley to get going to set up the passing game.
Brandon Bell
Penn State needs to get after the quarterback, and Bell will be one of the guys called on to do that. The linebacker drew comparisons to former Nittany Lion LaVar Arrington with a strip-sack in the Big Ten Championship Game. Those are the kinds of big plays Penn State will need to flip the momentum in this one.
Players to Watch for USC
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Sam Darnold
USC finished the season as strong as anyone, winning eight of the last nine games with Darnold at quarterback. The freshman is accurate, completing 68.1 percent of his passes, and the moment hasn't been too big for him yet. With the Rose Bowl hanging in the balance, the Trojans need another solid performance from their quarterback.
Adoree' Jackson
Jackson is one of the most exciting players in the game, but he could be challenged against Penn State wide receiver Chris Godwin. The Nittany Lions have shown the ability to throw it deep, so the Trojans will need Jackson and the rest of the secondary to make plays on the 50-50 throws down the field.
What They're Saying
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Penn State had an outside shot at getting into the College Football Playoff, but committee chairman Kirby Hocutt stated during ESPN's selection show that the losses hurt the Nittany Lions, despite them having a better strength of schedule than Washington. "We looked at one-loss Washington and that loss being against a Top 10 opponent (USC), compared to a two-loss Penn State team," Hocutt told ESPN's Rece Davis.
There won't be much sulking and complaining from the Penn State side, though. "We would have all loved to be in the playoffs, but we're all appreciative for the opportunity that we have," Franklin told ESPN.
On the other side, Helton is also thankful for the opportunity to play in the Rose Bowl. The head coach issued a statement after the selection, according to the Los Angeles Daily News' Scott Wolf: "It is a great reward for our football team after a very strong finish to the 2016 season."
Prediction
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Penn State is one of the many feel-good stories of this bowl season, but USC and the Rose Bowl are a dangerous combination. The Trojans have won in their last three appearances in this game, and location plays a role in that. With Pasadena being right in USC's backyard, the Trojans will be largely represented inside Rose Bowl Stadium.
On the field, the Trojans will have the advantage, too. Darnold will play efficiently, throwing for a couple of touchdowns and close to 250 yards. The Nittany Lions will force a turnover, but it won't be enough.
As good as Penn State is in the second half of games, it won't be able to overcome the halftime deficit this time. USC will jump up quickly with a couple of touchdowns, and Cameron Smith and Jackson will make the big plays on the defensive side to stretch that lead. McSorley and Barkley will have decent outings, but the aggressiveness of USC's defense will make getting the ball down the field a challenge.
Prediction: USC 34, Penn State 21
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