Russell Athletic Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Miami vs. West Virginia
Miami hasn't won a bowl game since beating Nevada 21-20 in the MPC Computers Bowl in 2006, but it'll look to change that on December 28 when it faces off against No. 16 West Virginia in the Russel Athletic Bowl.
The Hurricanes (8-4) started hot, winning their first four games by an average of 36 points and had vaulted into the Top 10 of the AP poll. A loss to Florida State triggered a four-game losing streak, but head coach Mark Richt got his team to bounce back and close strong with four consecutive victories over Pitt, Virginia, NC State and Duke.
The Mountaineers flirted with playoff contention after winning their first six games, but a road trip to Oklahoma State and a blowout loss at home to Oklahoma derailed those aspirations and their conference title hopes.
Everything you need to know about the showdown between Miami and West Virginia can be found here. We'll highlight the keys to victory and players to watch for each team and a prediction for who will end their season with a victory.
Viewing Information
Date: Wednesday, December 28
Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
Place: Orlando Citrus Bowl—Orlando, Florida
TV: ESPN
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7West Virginia has been known for its offense under head coach Dana Holgorsen, but it's been the defense that has been the difference this season. The unit gives up a lot of yards, but it tightens up when it needs to and surrenders just 23 points per game.
The Mountaineers will need every bit of that defense against a Miami offense that's averaging 35 points a game and has broken the 40-point mark in four of its 12 games this season.
Miami Keys to Victory
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Protect the Quarterback
Miami's young offensive line has had its ups and downs this season, but it looks to be hitting its stride at the right time.
The Hurricanes have given up 24 total sacks this year, but 18 of those came in a five-game stretch, which coincided with their four-game losing streak. But left tackle Trevor Darling and the offensive line have tightened things up in front of Brad Kaaya, giving up just four total sacks in the final four games of the year.
West Virginia doesn't generate a ton of pressure in the backfield, but for Miami to win this game and build some momentum heading in to 2017, it needs to take another step forward.
Go Deep
One of the definitive areas in the Hurricanes can attack West Virginia is in the vertical passing game.
The Mountaineers rank 70th nationally in opponents' plays of 40 yards or more. Former Miami cornerback Antonio Crawford transferred to West Virginia and led the unit, but Kaaya needs to actively challenge the secondary down the field.
The Hurricanes are suited to do that as they have three players (Ahmmon Richards, Stacy Coley and David Njoku) with receiving touchdowns of longer than 50 yards.
West Virginia Keys to Victory
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Get Off to A Fast Start
West Virginia has one of the most explosive offenses in college football, ranking 12th nationally in total offense with 506.9 yards per game.
But the points haven't coincided with the amount of yards it has piled up. The Mountaineers are averaging just 32.6 points per game, which checks in at No. 45 in the country.
Holgorsen has to find a way to capitalize on his team's scoring opportunities, especially early. In West Virginia's lone two losses of the season, it was outscored 54-17 in the first half.
Find A Way to Generate Pressure
The bowl game is a perfect chance to mix up what you do defensively in an effort to confuse an opponent who has studied your defense and tendencies for the better part of a month.
When Miami watches the tape, it'll see a defense that struggled to generate any semblance of a consistent pressure all season. The Mountaineers rank a meager 84th in sacks per game and an even worse 119th in tackles for loss.
Defensive lineman Noble Nwachukwu needs to be a big factor. The fifth-year senior led the team with 7.5 tackles for loss and four sacks, but he needs to have his best game against the Hurricanes.
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Miami Players to Watch
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Ahmmon Richards
There haven't been many freshmen who made a bigger impact in their first year than the Hurricanes' star receiver Richards.
The 6'1", 192-pound standout from Wellington, Florida, has been sensational for Miami this year, leading the team with an incredible 866 receiving yards and 18.8 yards per reception. He's registered four 100-yard receiving games this year. He came on strong down the stretch, with three of those performances occurring in the final four weeks of the season.
His most impressive performances were against Pitt and NC State, when he hauled in a combined 17 receptions for 261 yards.
Brad Kaaya
Kaaya is the engine in Miami's offense, and with a possible NFL draft decision coming, this could be his last game in a Hurricanes uniform.
The junior has put together his most efficient season this year, completing 61.2 percent of his passes for 3,250 yards and 23 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. He eclipsed 300 yards in a third of Miami's games this year, and he's coming off a career-high 396-yard throwing performance in a 40-21 win over Duke.
West Virginia Players to Watch
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Skyler Howard
Holgorsen's system demands a highly productive quarterback, and that's exactly what he has in Skyler Howard.
The senior is in the midst of a career year in which he's thrown for 3,194 yards and 26 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He's also done a good amount of damage on the ground, accounting for 400 rushing yards and nine more touchdowns.
But the Mountaineers need their quarterback to bounce back, as he's coming off a season-low 111 passing yards (from 10 completions and 38.5 percent completion percentage), although he did account for all three of West Virginia's touchdowns in a 24-21 win over Baylor.
Justin Crawford
When West Virginia turns to the ground game, look out for junior running back Justin Crawford.
Stuck in a timeshare with Rushel Shell for much of the season, Crawford has broken out down the stretch. It was an injury against Oklahoma that opened up the opportunity to be the bell-cow back, and he responded with a career-high 331 rushing yards on just 24 carries.
He played sparingly in the 30-point blowout of Iowa State, then flexed his muscle again in the season finale, running for 209 yards on 28 carries against Baylor.
What They're Saying
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Coach Richt is excited for the opportunity to play against West Virginia, according to the team's official website:
"The Russell Athletic Bowl will be an outstanding opportunity for our team. Orlando is a fantastic city, has a great stadium and will provide a tremendous challenge to compete against a quality opponent like West Virginia. It's also a great spot for our fans to enjoy their bowl experience. We are looking forward to our week in Orlando.
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After beating Baylor to finish the season with 10 wins, Holgorsen can't understand why his team isn't getting more respect, according to Patrick Kotnik of Rivals: "For the life of me, I can’t figure out how we’re ranked 16th. We’ve got two losses to two Top 10 schools. There’s other schools that have two and three losses that are ahead of us that don’t have losses to Top 10 schools. I don’t get how that is."
Kaaya wants to end the season on a high note, via Christy Cabrera of the Sun Sentinel: "To play ourselves into a fairly good bowl game and finish the season with a five-game win streak, I don’t think that’s happened here in a while. I don’t think we’ve won a bowl game in who knows how long, so just to finish on that high note, it’d be huge. It would set the platform for next year."
Prediction
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Miami will get its first bowl win in a decade when it uses big plays and an opportunistic defense to get past West Virginia.
Kaaya will be comfortable behind an improving offensive line, throwing for more than 300 yards and three touchdowns against the Mountaineers defense. Richards will be on the receiving end of two of those scores to cap his sensational freshman season.
The Mountaineers will bring plenty of fight, and Crawford will chew up Miami's usually solid run defense for 150 yards on 20 carries. Howard will throw two touchdowns, but the Hurricanes will the turnover battle, which will be the difference in a game that goes down to the wire.
Miami 34, West Virginia 31
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