NFL Predictions Week 13: Chris Simms' Weekly Projections

I love this fascination with Aaron Rodgers’ sideline tent.

What are NFL players supposed to do? Pee in plain view? Go bare-assed on the bench as the trainer re-tapes you? The alternative is running to the locker room and missing an offensive series. Rodgers ain’t going for that.

And neither did I. NFL training staffs are paid good money to help players deal with their full bladders. I’d summon a few of them over if I couldn’t hold it—no tent required. They’d just make a little towel fortress around me and look the other way while I peed in a trash can. Easy as that!

Some player will do the same thing in Week 13. That’s a prediction I guarantee. Sometimes, you just gotta go.

Playoff Crashers

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Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

I’m not counting Indianapolis out until the final playoff field is set.

Until then, here’s what I know: The Titans aren’t battle-tested. The Jaguars aren’t going anywhere. The Texans backed into the playoffs last season. And Indianapolis should be getting Andrew Luck back.

Forget what you saw from head coach Chuck Pagano’s team on Thanksgiving. The Colts have 10 days in between games—more than enough time to rest a depleted secondary and patch coverage issues up. Did I mention No. 12 is expected to suit up?

The Jets pass defense is ripe for the taking, both in pass rush and secondary play. Luck has a chance to get his team back on top of the AFC South on Monday night.

Postseason Pushovers

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Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jameis Winston and Co. just toppled two playoff teams in back-to-back weeks. So they should be postseason-bound too, right?

Not so fast.

The Buccaneers will embark on a cross-country flight (never easy) to take on Philip Rivers’ efficient passing offense (also never easy). There’s not enough talent in Tampa Bay’s secondary to stop all of San Diego’s formations and looks. I expect them to fly back as the team we’ve seen all season—a .500 one.

It’ll be rough sailing from there. The Bucs play the red-hot New Orleans Saints twice in the last four games. Plus, they play the top-seeded Cowboys in Week 15. Yikes.

Next Man Up

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Prediction: Clive Walford

With the Carr-Cooper-Crabtree takeover in full swing, it’s easy to lose sight of the tight end position.

No one knows that better than the man coordinating Oakland’s offense. Bill Musgrave will zig when Buffalo head coach Rex Ryan’s defense zags, and Clive Walford is positioned to benefit most.

Walford found the end zone once on three catches in Week 12. He can double that this weekend; Buffalo’s pressure packages make No. 88 the hot read on many of Carr’s throws. And given the murky situation at safety, I expect Walford to do some things with the ball in his hands.

Sleeper Signal-Caller

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Prediction: Jared Goff

Jared Goff’s about to receive a baptism by fire from the NFL’s foremost authority on defense.

He should emerge on the other end of this road game unscathed, though. The No. 1 overall pick has shown up on game film enough times to make me feel confident he can do it again—even against the Patriots.

Goff’s play has enabled the Rams passing attack to become a little more vertical since he entered the fray. We’ll see a few more deep tries this week; head coach Bill Belichick (and coordinator Matt Patricia) love to test receivers with straight-up man defense.

But this year, New England doesn’t have the secondary or pass rush to disrupt the timing of wideouts like Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin. Goff won’t be perfect, but all he needs to do is find them to keep things interesting.

Defense I’d Least Like to See

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Prediction: Denver Broncos

If I’m Blake Bortles, I’m packing two pairs of underwear for my locker this week.

We’ve seen what Von Miller can do to an offense (hint: destroy it). We’ve also seen Denver’s pass rush is more than just the reigning Super Bowl MVP; coordinator Wade Phillips sends DeMarcus Ware, Shaquil Barrett, Shane Ray and a lot more at opposing passers. They all aren't happy about last week's loss.

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Bortles can navigate his way around that rush. He has two options at that point. Either he can A) use his legs against some of the league’s speediest linebackers or B) loft up one of his patented lob balls and hope Allen Robinson can beat Aqib Talib.

Neither one’s going to work, Blake. Better make it three pairs of undies.

Best Game No One’s Talking About

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Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

There’s no good time to look away from this weekend’s best under-the-radar game.

Think about it: If you look away when Matt Ryan takes the field, you’re missing a battle between two NFL powers. Julio Jones versus Marcus Peters. Justin Houston chasing down Devonta Freeman. Up-and-coming Chris Jones on Alex Mack.

So you switch channels when Alex Smith takes the field, right? Wrong. Then you’re missing the NFL’s Russell Westbrook do his thing. Tyreek Hill is a triple threat every time he steps on a gridiron. Can Vic Beasley get to Smith before he doles out damage?

You’ll need to watch to find out. Just don’t look away.

Under/Over Aaron Rodgers' Passing Yards

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Line: 300

Prediction: Under

Aaron Rodgers will look like he’s from that town in Footloose this week.

Why? Because he won’t be allowed to dance. Houston’s defense will apply way more pressure than he saw from the Eagles last Monday night. And that hamstring tweak won’t permit No. 12 to use his usual hop-around routine behind the line of scrimmage.

His problems don’t end with Jadeveon Clowney and Co. Green Bay’s receivers enjoyed a beanbag chair-sized cushion in Week 12. Houston’s physical cornerback trio of Johnathan Joseph, A.J. Bouye and Kareem Jackson will be right up in their faces for this showdown. Rodgers will need to earn all his yards.

More Passing Yards: Drew Brees or Matthew Stafford?

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Prediction: Drew Brees

There’s a reason why Matthew Stafford turned Motor City into Check Down City this season.

His run game is scaring no one. So teams feel justified in placing two safeties way back and forcing No. 9 to dink-and-dunk them to death. He can, but that’s so tough to do with consistency.

Drew Brees is operating under the exact opposite circumstances. Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower have New Orleans' run game rolling. In turn, Brees is freed up to take advantage of creeping safeties and linebackers with over-the-top tosses.

I’ll take the quarterback who gets his yards in chunks over the one who gets his in smaller pieces. But it’ll be close.

More Receiving Yards: Odell Beckham Jr. or Antonio Brown?

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Prediction: Odell Beckham Jr.

Pittsburgh has rolled out far more man coverage looks than usual in the last two or three weeks.

That plays right into Odell Beckham Jr.'s talented hands. There’s not a cornerback on Pittsburgh's roster who can run with ODB one-on-one. When the Steelers realize that—and switch mid-game to zone—Eli Manning knows how to exploit the coverage gaps. This isn’t his first rodeo.

Antonio Brown won’t have it so easy. He’ll probably face some combination of Janoris Jenkins and Eli Apple off the line. Get by them, and NFC Defensive Player of the Month Landon Collins is lurking. Not fun.

Under/Over Jay Ajayi Rushing Yards

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Line: 80

Prediction: Over

The big men are coming! The big men are coming!

Miami’s offensive line is expected to receive reinforcements in Week 13. With tackle Branden Albert and guard Laremy Tunsil back in the mix, no defensive line is safe from getting pushed around.

Even one as big and as bad as Baltimore’s. And so I think we see the Jay Ajayi who posted 400-plus rushing yards over that two-week span more than the struggling one of late.

Also helping matters: Ryan Tannehill’s emergence. Baltimore’s secondary needs its safeties back against the likes of DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills. Ajayi will have space to shoot through.

More Catches: Jimmy Graham or Greg Olsen?

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Prediction: Jimmy Graham

Seattle has a tendency to let big tight ends post big numbers.

I’ll still give the slight edge to Jimmy Graham in a tight end duel, though. It’ll be tough for his counterpart, Greg Olsen, to navigate the defensive Bermuda Triangle of Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright and Kam Chancellor. Especially when Richard Sherman is on the outskirts taking away Carolina’s other top receiving threats.

Graham will face fewer roadblocks. Sure, Thomas Davis is still a coverage fiend. But Luke Kuechly won’t be manning the middle to tussle with No. 88. Beyond that, there’s no one in Carolina’s secondary who can match up with ol’ Jimmy.