Cotton Bowl Classic: Preview, Predictions for Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin

The 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic kicks off on January 2, and this year's matchup features two top teams from the Great Lakes region of the country. The Wisconsin Badgers built up a 28-7 lead in the Big Ten Championship Game only to watch Penn State mount an epic comeback to claim the title while Western Michigan breaks into the College Football Playoff Committee's New Year's Six games by virtue of a 13-0 season, capped off on Friday with a win over Ohio University in the MAC Championship Game.

Western Michigan had to survive its own scare, as the heavily favored Broncos were challenged by the Bobcats, eventually holding on to win by six thanks to a last minute interception that ended Ohio's comeback bid.

Western Michigan is 2-0 against Big Ten teams this season, but those two teams were Illinois and Northwestern. Western's combined margin of victory was 25 whereas Wisconsin's margin against those same two opponents was 59 points. The run-up to this game is going to get some comparisons to Northern Illinois-Florida State from a few years back. The difference here is that this Western Michigan team not only has more talent spread around the field, but the Broncos match up against Wisconsin a lot better than NIU did against Florida State in the 2013 Orange Bowl. 

This will be the fifth all-time meeting between Wisconsin and Western Michigan, all previously played in Madison. Wisconsin leads the series 3-1, with Western's lone win coming in 1988 (24-14).

Date: January 2, 2017

Time: 1 pm ET

TV: ESPN

Odds: Wisconsin, -6.5

Tale of the Tape

Western Michigan has certainly been impressive this season, both statistically and in terms of its 13 wins and conference title. But take care when comparing WMU's statistical output to that of Wisconsin.

While the Broncos have clearly been better than every team they have faced this season, it's also clear that WMU just doesn't play the same level of competition as Wisconsin. The Badgers have been solid against some of the nation's best this season, including teams like LSU and Penn State. The Badgers even hung nail-bitingly close with No. 6 Michigan in a tight loss on the road.

Keys to Victory for Western Michigan

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Strike Early and Often

Western Michigan's standard operating procedure this season has been to build a lead, demoralize the opposition and continue to run business as usual until the final seconds tick off the clock. Doing all of that against Wisconsin will be a much tougher proposition. If Western can grab an early lead on the Badgers, the Broncos must keep the pressure on. 

Find a Way to Slow the Run

Wisconsin averages 204.5 rushing yards per game this season. At first glance, that seems a bit low considering Western averaged 237 and the MAC has four total programs north of the 200-yard mark in 2016. But Wisconsin has played quite a few teams with lock-down defenses and has come out on top more often than not. Western must find a way to scheme around the lack of size and athleticism to keep the Badgers' run game off-balance long enough to build that typical WMU lead.

Keys to Victory for Wisconsin

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Play Wisconsin Football

All due respect to Western Michigan, the Badgers are playing a team from the MAC. Yes, WMU is 13-0, but the size and athleticism of the players simply aren't comparable. Certainly Western has some athletes, but Wisconsin has much more. Wisconsin football is won or lost up front, and if the offensive line can establish the run, it's going to be a long day for Western Michigan. 

Limit the Big Play

One of those aforementioned athletes Western puts on the field is Corey Davis. He's as fast as anyone in the country when it comes to running routes, and it's easy for a defense to lose track of him in the secondary. If the Badgers don't put some extra focus on him, the Broncos will be the beneficiaries of some big chunk plays. The longer this game stays close, the better Western's chances become.

Players to Watch for Western Michigan

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Corey Davis

The 2016 Biletnikoff Award semifinalist averages nearly 110 receiving yards per game and ranks seventh in the FBS with 1,427 receiving yards so far this season. He also leads the nation with 18 receiving touchdowns, making him one of the biggest threats the Broncos have on the field.

Jarvion Franklin

At the 2016 MAC Championship Game, Jarvion Franklin broke the 1,300-yard mark for rushing this season, putting him third in the MAC and in the top 25 nationally. His 12 touchdowns don't exactly pop off of the page, but when combined with Davis's scoring production, it's clear that the one-two punch of Davis and Franklin makes the Western offense scary enough to challenge any defense.

Players to Watch for Wisconsin

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Corey Clement

When taking on an opponent generally regarded as weaker, establishing the run will give everyone an early indication as to how the game is going to unfold. In this case, keep your eyes on Corey Clement early on. Wisconsin loves to pound the football, and Clement is the main weapon. He leads the Big Ten with 1,304 rushing yards and is third in the conference with 14 touchdowns. If Western can't slow Clement down, the Broncos have little chance to get the Badgers away from their gameplan.

T.J. Watt

There's only one thing you really need to know about T.J. Watt: He has 10.5 sacks this season, leading the defensively-minded Big Ten. Say what you will about Western Michigan's exploits this season, but the MAC is in no way the Big Ten. The weekly level of competition is so disparate, it's hard to compare. The fact that Watt is beating Big Ten offensive lines on a weekly basis really has to introduce some trepidation into the mind of WMU quarterback Zach Terrell.

What They're Saying

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Western Michigan head coach P.J. Fleck

"

We deserve to be in the gosh darn Cotton Bowl. Period. Write it down. I don't think there's anybody [else] to pay attention to. Who are we paying attention to? Why are we paying attention to anybody? We are 13-0. We're the best Group of Five team in the country. We didn't lose a game. Whoever they put on our schedule, we beat. There's two undefeated teams in the country—us and Alabama—and there is no argument.

"

In case you wondered if P.J. Fleck was superstitious about his team's chances of reaching the Cotton Bowl Classic, here was his answer about his plans for the Saturday following Friday's MAC Championship Game victory, and it's pure gold.

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My TV will be off (Saturday). I'll be recruiting tomorrow. I'm not going to watch anybody. Period. I'm going to wear cotton shirts. I'm going to have cotton slippers. I'm going to have cotton ear muffs, and I'm going to have a cotton jacket. I'm going to wear everything cotton from here on out.

"

Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst

Is Wisconsin disappointed? Sure. The Badgers were a win away from the Big Ten championship and a berth in the Rose Bowl. The Badgers had a huge lead on Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game and let it get away from them, so it's only natural to think about what might have been. But don't tell that to Paul Chryst.

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I’m excited for our players to have the opportunity to be a part of a game with the long and storied history like the Cotton Bowl has. This game has featured a number of great programs and great players throughout the years and we are proud to now have a chance to be a part of that history. I appreciate what our players have done to earn the right to play in this game. Western Michigan has had a tremendous year and will present a terrific challenge for us.

"

Prediction

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Western Michigan is getting a well-deserved reward with a trip to the Cotton Bowl Classic this season.   Finishing the regular season with a 13-0 record and conference championship is a historic accomplishment, not just for Western but for any program.

That being said, Western is about to run into a team unlike any they have faced this season. Sure, the Broncos were able to get past Wisconsin's conference compatriots, Northwestern and Illinois, but the Badgers are a quantum leap above the Illini and Wildcats in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin prides itself on winning games in the trenches, and there are few programs anywhere in the nation better in the trenches. The Badgers offensive line is big and powerful, and the Broncos will be hard pressed to find much success—much less 60 minutes of success—against that kind of athleticism.

Wisconsin simply has to avoid the letdown it suffered in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Badgers should be able to grab a lead in this game, but if they don't pour it on, Western Michigan is easily capable of swinging the momentum of the entire game with just a few big offensive plays.

If this game does come down to a traditional, Big Ten-style slugfest, the smart money is on the Badgers. If, however, Wisconsin has trouble establishing the run and has to resort to the passing game, this could get interesting in a hurry. Don't ever count out Western in a shootout.

Prediction: Wisconsin 38, Western Michigan 30