Gegard Mousasi vs. Uriah Hall 2: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Gegard Mousasi (40-6-2) and Uriah Hall (13-7) meet at UFC Fight Night 99 this weekend in a five-round main event, but it's not the first time the two have faced off.
In one of the most stunning upsets and finishes of 2015, Hall landed a spinning back kick that would lead to a TKO victory.
It was the biggest win in Hall's career and jolted him up the ranks. But things have not been the same for either man since that date. Mousasi is 3-0, and Hall is 0-2 since their September 2015 meeting. Mousasi is entering title-contention territory, and Hall is in a similar position looking for a big upset to put him back in play.
Can lightning strike twice, or will Mousasi right his wrongs?
Take a look at the head-to-toe breakdown for UFC Fight Night 99's main event.
Striking
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In their first meeting, the stats were nearly identical. Per FightMetric, Mousasi landed 17 significant strikes to Hall's 18. Although it's important to note that ground strikes can count toward this total.
Mousasi is a good striker. The true difference between the two is Hall has more explosive techniques—such as the spinning back kick that took Mousasi out last fight. Hall has the strikes that seemingly come from nowhere and annihilate his opponent. Mousasi is more tactical.
If not for that finish, I may lean toward Mousasi's stand-up. But that kick plays a big part into the psyche of both men.
Mousasi lands at a slightly higher rate and absorbs less, per FightMetric. It would be logical to say he holds the edge. Hall's TKO finish will make Mousasi more cautious. He knows it can come from nowhere, land and be the end of the fight. He won't want history to repeat itself.
That hesitation will allow Hall to have the edge with his long limbs. He can strike with kicks and punches from the outside and be the more effective striker.
Edge: Hall
Grappling
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This category is a lot less murky. Mousasi is definitively the better grappler.
When Mousasi got the takedown against Hall in their first meeting, he was all over him. He made several passes while on the canvas and won the first round without much issue. Hall struggled with Mousasi's top game.
That could very well be the story of this fight come Saturday.
Mousasi's ability to control the fight against the cage or on the mat gives him a decided edge in this fight. Hall must keep the fight standing. It puts a limit on Hall's ability to be an effective fighter.
Edge: Mousasi
Submissions
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Mousasi will have the better positions to nab a submission, and as such he'll get the nod. He's got an extensive grappling background with several submission finishes to his credit.
But do not sleep on Hall.
Hall did try for one submission off his back in their first meeting, but he spent most of the first round fending off Mousasi's attempts. However, he did show in that round he's not afraid to attack and has the ability.
Hall can surprise folks with his jiu-jitsu. It's not elite-level or exceedingly dangerous as many others, but it is surprising. That's half the battle—catching your opponent off-guard.
Mousasi certainly has the edge, but Hall's aggressive nature will at least make things interesting. Mousasi may even wind up on the defensive if this fight hits the turf.
Edge: Mousasi
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X-Factors
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Hall's X-Factor: Staying on the Feet
Yes, this is a pretty basic X-factor, but it's the truth. Hall's biggest X-factor is his ability to stay off his back against Mousasi.
While standing, Hall is always a threat. He has the one-punch, one-kick power that is always there waiting to be unleashed.
Mousasi will look to get inside, clinch, shoot singles or doubles and take this fight to the mat in general. He must be prepared for all scenarios. Hall has decent takedown defense and good balance, but he will need to read Mousasi much better in their second meeting to keep himself upright.
Mousasi's X-Factor: Patience
Mousasi is one of the most patient fighters on the roster, but it's an X-factor in this fight for a couple of reasons.
First, will the loss to Hall make him be patient? If so, he could rush into another knockout. It would be out of character for Mousasi, but losses make fighters do crazy things. He may be overly aggressive.
Secondly, maybe the previous knockout makes him too patient. Perhaps with that kick in the back of his mind, he will be too passive.
There's no way of knowing until the referee calls for the action to begin. It will be intriguing to see how patient Mousasi is against Hall in the rematch.
Prediction
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No one should dismiss Hall's chances in this fight. That would be foolish. He is an exceptional athlete with a lot of tools. He can, on any given night, beat anyone in this division. He just hasn't shown the consistency.
Mousasi, on the other hand, is one of the most consistent figures in the UFC.
Hall simply caught Mousasi in their first meeting, which is unlikely to happen again. Mousasi will be a bit more methodical in the rematch. He will wear on Hall against the cage and on the floor. He'll work in more ground-and-pound to the body.
In the second round, Mousasi gets another takedown. Slowly moving like a snake, waiting, searching and then striking, Mousasi finds an opening for a choke and takes care of Hall.
A fourth straight win moves Mousasi right into the title picture for 2017.
Prediction: Mousasi def. Hall via submission in the second round
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