Odds for Each Player to Win the 2016 ATP World Tour Finals
The 2016 ATP World Tour Finals are underway, and four-time defending champion Novak Djokovic is already in the win column in group play. It’s been a difficult second half of 2016 for the Serb, and he does not come into London as the favorite.
New world No. 1 Andy Murray is king of the mountain, and he has the home-crowd edge, but winning four or five matches against the other superstars of tennis will be the supreme challenge of 2016. Will he hold off Djokovic to claim the WTF title and year-end No. 1 ranking for the first time?
The following slideshow counts down all eight participants at the WTF. There are two groups of four players, and each player will play a round-robin series of three matches to determine which two group members go on to the semifinals and play for the final.
We examine each player’s road to escaping group play and calculate his odds of winning the title.
8. Gael Monfils
1 of 8
It might already be over for Gael Monfils. His opening-round loss to Milos Raonic, 6-3, 6-4, in the Ivan Lendl group puts him behind the eight ball. He couldn’t crack the big Canadian’s serve for a single break point, and he struggled to get his own first serve in often enough, connecting on only 32 of 63 and giving up eight break-point chances.
Now he must defeat Dominic Thiem and world No. 1 Novak Djokovic for a realistic chance at the semifinals. Thiem has one set in the bag, so Monfils probably would not get any tiebreaker edge if he tries to squeak into the semifinals with one win. And he probably better defeat Thiem because he has a 0-13 career record against Djokovic.
Not to diminish Monfils’ excellence the past few months, but he also sounded like a player just happy to be there with his comments to the media following the loss to Raonic, per ATP World Tour: “I love it. It's a big court with a great atmosphere. I simply love it. It's a big court, wide on the sides, and super deep.”
With Djokovic still to play, we give Monfils the lowest odds to escape the group and win the title. How about two percent?
Odds to Win the WTF: 48-1
7. Dominic Thiem
2 of 8
Nobody wants to lose their opener at the WTF, but Dominic Thiem took the first set from Novak Djokovic before losing 12 of 14 games, 6-7(10), 6-0, 6-2. Still, the Austrian acquitted himself well, especially after a summer slump that had him staggering into the WTF.
“Dominic definitely seemed very impressive considering it was his debut in the World Tour Finals,” said Djokovic, per ATP World Tour. “It didn't seem like he was overwhelmed by the stage or occasion. He came out firing and playing great tennis. Got to give him credit for that. He was obviously very pumped up to get to the court and give his best.”
It’s still a tough task for Thiem to rebound and secure two wins that will all but assure himself a place in the weekend semifinals. First, he must vanquish Gael Monfils, which is probable if he plays like he did in the first set with his strong groundstrokes and bludgeoning mentality.
He also stands a better chance than Monfils because he gets Milos Raonic in the third match, who may or may not be healthy. Monfils must deal with Djokovic, who is motivated to recapture his No. 1 form.
On the other hand, Thiem can’t let up and play tired the way he did down the stretch against Djokovic. Can he return better than winning six of 26 against the Serb's second serve? Will he double his efficiency at net that saw him convert on only five of 16 points?
Thiem’s down one match, so it’s hard to give him better than about four percent to win the tournament.
Odds to Win the WTF: 22-1
6. Kei Nishikori
3 of 8
If he were in the Ivan Lendl section of the draw, we would give Kei Nishikori greater odds to escape his group of death. He’s got to deal with No. 1 Andy Murray, U.S. Open champion Stan Wawrinka and another big thumper in Marin Cilic. It’s a lot to overcome despite his own advantages.
Nishikori is one of the most talented ball strikers in the world. So much depends on his speedy footwork and the angles he creates. At times he is overly conservative with too many cross-court groundstrokes, but as an underdog, he is more willing to attack. He also outlasted Murray in a five-set upset at the U.S. Open quarterfinals.
Can he win two of three matches in group play? He gets Wawrinka first, and if he can force the Swiss to hit from deep angles, he could benefit from the other’s sometimes-erratic play. If he goes down in that one, it’s asking too much for him to sweep both Cilic (who recently defeated Nishikori in the final at Basel) and Murray. He would need to lock in on the former’s serve and outgrind the latter.
We like Nishikori’s skills and game, but at best, it might be about a 8-1 chance to get to the semifinals. Maybe that would be the hardest part, but then two more single-elimination matches in the semifinals and overall we are going to say that he’s got about a five-percent chance of winning the title.
Odds to Win the WTF: 19-1
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5. Milos Raonic
4 of 8
Perhaps the hardest part is done: Milos Raonic might be healthy enough to complete the WTF. The Canadian, ranked No. 4 in the world, has been injury-prone the past couple years. His latest setback, a torn right quad suffered at the Paris Masters last week, has made him vulnerable, even while taking down Gael Monfils in their opener of the Ivan Lendl group, 6-3, 6-4.
Although he served with his usual overpowering brilliance, Raonic gets lower odds in our rankings because of his injury. He struggles with his movement and defense anyway, so this would severely hamper any chance to grind through matches.
If there is hope to win it all and secure the world No. 3 ranking, it will begin and end with his cannon serve. The indoor conditions help, even if the surface is not too speedy or low-bouncing like Wimbledon's grass. He will need to attack short balls and finish at the net whenever possible.
If he’s unable to recover and continue in the next few days, Tomas Berdych would get the call to step in. The Czech has been fading in recent months and would be an extreme long shot to win the title.
Raonic can most likely secure a semifinal spot if he splits his remaining round-robin matches with Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem, but we are dropping him below six percent because of his uncertainty with the quad injury.
Odds to Win the WTF: 17-1
4. Stan Wawrinka
5 of 8
It’s probably good for Stan Wawrinka that he gets Kei Nishikori to open group play. Coach Magnus Norman has no doubt been chewing on his ear to stay within himself and let the accumulation of his big groundstrokes force short balls from the Japanese star.
If he is steady the way he was in their U.S. Open semifinals, he will get through. But there’s a good chance that he falters against Cilic and Murray, players who have been arguably the hottest on tour the past couple of months.
Wawrinka has the confidence of a three-time major winner, and he was a semifinalist at the 2015 WTF, so he’s very capable—probably more than the six percent we are dishing out for his chances this week.
He could be the most dangerous player in the tournament and nobody would be surprised if he won it all, but he also loses inexplicable matches.
Odds to Win the WTF: 15-1
3. Marin Cilic
6 of 8
We’re giving Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic a combined 69 percent to win the WTF, which might actually be shortchanging the dynamic duo. That’s just over 30 percent for the other six stars to carve up, and we have tagged Marin Cilic as the most likely player to steal the title.
The big Croatian proved he is a dangerous and worthy champion in winning the 2014 U.S. Open by dominating his final three matches. He’s got the serve and forehand power, sneaky-fast feet and extraordinary athleticism.
Most importantly, he’s been playing well since his disappointing five-set quarterfinals loss at Wimbledon to Roger Federer. He’s twice since been a Davis Cup hero. He won Cincinnati’s Western & Southern Open by crushing Andy Murray, and he did likewise to Kei Nishikori to win the Swiss Indoors Basel.
The key for him to nab one of the top two spots in the tough John McEnroe group will be to defeat Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka by overpowering the former and playing steadier tennis than the latter. Before that, he has an opportunity to knock off Murray again, and it’s a solid possibility.
Could he get into the semifinals and perhaps knock off both Djokovic and Murray? We’ve got him at about eight percent to complete this quest, just ahead of of Wawrinka and Raonic but a far cry from the Big Two.
Odds to Win the WTF: 11-1
2. Novak Djokovic
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Are we underrating Novak Djokovic to give him a 33 percent chance to win the WTF where he has not failed to win the title since 2011? It’s a little hard to figure right now because it really comes down to which Djokovic we will see this week.
If it’s the Djokovic who slumped in the summer and was racked by injuries at the U.S. Open and a meltdown in Shanghai, then he will be settling for the No. 2 ranking to end the year like he did in 2013 when Rafael Nadal claimed the distinction (although Djokovic did defeat Nadal in the WTF final).
Against Thiem in the first set, Djokovic fought hard, lost and regrouped. His experience and championship acumen saw him sprint through the final two sets and pick up that much-needed momentum. Still, nobody can declare that the king has returned.
He’s got a hobbled Raonic and then a favorable matchup against Gael Monfils (13-0 career record), so he’s a strong bet to reach the weekend semifinals. From there, it will require the A-level Djokovic that won the Grand Slam from 2015-16. He could be dealing with Marin Cilic, Stan Wawrinka or Andy Murray. Those are all stronger players than his own competition in the Ivan Lendl group.
Odds to Win the WTF: 2-1
1. Andy Murray
8 of 8
Despite his stellar play since the French Open, Andy Murray is not invincible. He’s been remarkably consistent in storming to the No. 1 ranking last week, keyed by titles at Wimbledon, Beijing, Shanghai and the Olympics gold medal for good measure. However, he’s often had soft draws, has not played Novak Djokovic since the French Open final and has logged a lot of matches to get here.
Don’t count on Murray blowing his biggest opportunity to win the WTF. If he doesn’t win, it won’t be because of fatigue or lack of effort. We would give him greater than 50 percent odds if he wasn’t stacked inside the John McEnroe group, but getting through Cilic, Wawrinka and Nishikori will not be easy, and that’s just to get to the semifinals and quite probably a weekend match against Djokovic.
But if Murray is going to create his own long-term niche at No. 1 and be the best player of 2017, he can start with a big statement this week.
Odds to Win the WTF: 9-5
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