Breaking Down the Groups at the 2016 ATP World Tour Finals
Beginning Sunday, the 2016 World Tour Finals could hijack the headlined battle for No. 1 between world No. 1 Andy Murray and super rival Novak Djokovic. Six other stars bring their talents and enthusiasm to London where the path to the prestigious year-end title could be more open than in previous years.
Although Djokovic is the four-time defending champion (and 2008 winner), he does not come in as the favorite, having lost his No. 1 ranking for the first time since July 2014. Despite his second-half malaise in 2016, he can finish as the year-end No. 1 for the fifth time in six years if he outpoints Murray by at least 405 rankings points.
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Murray would love to win the tournament for the first time, keep his newly minted No. 1 ranking and validate his position as the best player in the world for 2016. It is one of the three biggest remaining career titles he has not won (including the Australian and French Opens).
The eight stars will compete in the tournament’s usual format with two groups of four players. Each group member will play three round-robin matches against the other players. The top two players advance to play the other group’s survivors in the weekend semifinals. The player who wins the final two matches will be crowned champion.
Last year, the WTF named the groups after Ilie Nastase and Stan Smith, revered stars from the 1970s. This year, 1980s superstars John McEnroe and Ivan Lendl lend their names to the groups. We examine the strengths and possibilities of the groups and project what it will mean for Murray and Djokovic.
Group John McEnroe
No. 1 Andy Murray
No. 3 Stan Wawrinka
No. 5 Kei Nishikori
No. 7 Marin Cilic
Murray has his work cut out for him with stronger competitors to battle in his group. Stan Wawrinka is the U.S. Open champion and a big-match player who certainly will not bat an eye in staring down the world No. 1.
Wawrinka has bigger power with his groundstrokes, and if he serves well could be a toss up to defeat Murray. From 2013-15, Wawrinka defeated Murray three consecutive times including the round-robin match last year that sent the Swiss to the semifinals.
Furthermore, Kei Nishikori has been a proven threat to Murray, bouncing the Scot from the U.S. Open quarterfinals two months ago. He can take time away from Murray by hitting on the rise with his angled groundstrokes, and he’s one of the speediest and most able defenders in tennis. He showed a lot of resolve and will at the U.S. Open.
The other player that handled Murray this summer also happens to be in the John McEnroe group. Marin Cilic defeated a more-fatigued Murray in the Western & Southern Open for his first career Masters 1,000 title. Cilic has been a hot player in recent weeks including last week’s victory over Novak Djokovic. Armed with a big serve and forehand, the athletic Croatian can beat anyone on the planet on his best day.
Will the pressure to win also undermine Murray against more loose opponents? Then again, Murray has soared to the No. 1 ranking in winning every match necessary to get to No. 1. He’s got the London crowd to back his road to the WTF title.
We give the nod to Murray and Cilic who have been arguably the hotter players. Call Wawrinka and Nishikori the close third and fourth candidates, each very capable of nabbing a semifinal slot.
Group Ivan Lendl
No. 2 Novak Djokovic
No. 4 Milos Raonic
No. 6 Gael Monfils
No. 9 Dominic Thiem
Djokovic gets a real break and a chance to build momentum in the lighter group. First, Wimbledon finalist Milos Raonic may not play because of a torn right quad that was aggravated last week at the Paris Masters. He had to withdraw prior to his semifinal match with Andy Murray. If Raonic does play, he will likely be compromised with his already subpar movement. It will be tough for him to compete, let alone at full strength.
Gael Monfils comes in with one of his best runs since winning Washington D.C. in late August. The flamboyant Frenchman has been steadier with more emphasis on percentage strokes and consistency. It’s paying off. The bad news is that he has a 0-13 career record against Djokovic including a four-set U.S. Open semifinal loss to the partially injured Serbian.
Talented Dominic Thiem brings youth and energy in his first appearance at the WTF, except that he has been worn down in the second half of 2016. He backed into the WTF with four losses in six matches since late September. Had Rafael Nadal not stepped aside to rest from injuries, Thiem would not be here. He’s certainly not at the high level he was as a French Open semifinalist.
Djokovic is the solid favorite and Monfils is the default second player likely to get a semifinal slot. If Raonic bows out with injury, Tomas Berdych will step in; however, Berdych has played lackluster tennis in recent weeks and would be a real surprise to make a semifinal. Thiem needs to climb out of his coffin or time travel back to the spring.
Murray or Djokovic?
At stake is 1,500 possible points for the champion. The difference between the champion and runner-up is 500 points, meaning that Djokovic can retake No. 1 if he wins the WTF. Djokovic would likely need to win all three of his round-robin matches, valued at 200 points for each win, or else his gap over Murray in a final showdown might only be 300 points if Murray is undefeated to the final.
Although Murray has been the better player since July, he will need to continue his high level of play to win three matches against his group competitors. If Djokovic also escapes his group, Murray will need to win the title unless both players lose in the semifinals.
Djokovic is getting a lot of rest after his quarterfinal loss to Cilic at Paris last week and the couple of weeks he sat prior to that tournament. He must build momentum, and his weaker draw gives him the opportunity to regain his timing for an anticipated title match against Murray.
The Serb has the easier path, but usually the better player is still more likely to get through a tougher draw. Murray is better positioned than Djokovic to play well despite the groups, and even with all due respect to Djokovic’s immense legacy and talent.
Advantage Murray.
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