Andy Murray's No. 1 Ranking Tops Winners and Losers at the Paris Masters
Andy Murray capped off an important week by seizing the No. 1 ranking for the first time. It was consummated with his Paris Masters title, and he came away with the most bizarre trophy in tennis—something that looks like a cross between shedded antlers and a mini-metallic tree.
We also look at Novak Djokovic’s quarterfinals loss with a few words on what this could mean going forward. His No. 1 streak is over, for now.
There were other important "winners" and "losers" with eight players finalized for the ATP World Tour Finals in London. Who got over the hump, and who fell short?
All this and more in a monumental week for Murray—a transitional period that could light up the fireworks for the WTF.
Loser: David Goffin
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It was unlikely that David Goffin was going to get to the Paris Masters final, not in having to defeat Marin Cilic and potentially Novak Djokovic. (Maybe Djokovic wishes Goffin would have upset Cilic, thereby giving Djokovic the chance to play against Goffin’s lighter serve and pace.)
At any rate, Goffin’s near-miss in qualifying for the World Tour Finals in London was really set in motion with his summer slump. He had played so well in the spring with semifinal appearances at Indian Wells and Miami, solid results on clay and a career-best No. 11 ranking in June.
But the summer swoon eventually cost Goffin the WTF and a top-10 ranking. He won only two matches at the U.S. Open Series at Canada, Cincinnati and the U.S. Open, any of which could have helped him pick up valuable points that might have seen him get into the top 10. His first-round loss to Jared Donaldson at the U.S. Open was particularly brutal.
This especially hurts because Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are unable to compete at the WTF, which opened up the way for his chance to get one of the eight WTF slots. Unless Goffin keeps improving, he might not get another realistic career chance at the top 10 and the WTF.
Winner: Dominic Thiem
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It might be argued that Dominic Thiem should have a "loser" slide for his post-French Open collapse. Few players have limped into the eighth and final slot for the World Tour Finals like the 23-year-old Austrian.
This week, Thiem needed a strong performance to ensure he qualified for the WTF, but Jack Sock manhandled him 6-2, 6-4 in his opening match. Then he had to watch from the clubhouse while David Goffin, Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga were systematically eliminated from a deep run at Paris that could have got one of them into the WTF.
But remember, Thiem earned his ticket with a brutal, ironman effort in the first half of the season that saw him win four titles on three different surfaces and get to the French Open semifinals. He won 46 and lost 12 before Wimbledon.
He needed this relentless effort to crack the top 10, but it also sabotaged his form for the last few months. After Wimbledon, he has only been 11-10 with time missed because of nagging injuries and fatigue.
It’s unlikely Thiem will suddenly play like he did last spring, but the experience of battling stars at London and learning to pace his schedule could help him move upward in 2017.
Loser: Stan Wawrinka
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Is there cause for concern with Stan Wawrinka losing his first match at the Paris Masters to qualifier Jan-Lennard Struff—a journeyman with a 36-63 career record on the ATP tour? He lost the second and third sets with tiebreakers.
We've seen this before with Wawrinka. He can defeat the likes of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic in a major final, but he will often come back with head-scratching losses. He’s simply not a consistent star with his go-for-broke mentality in bashing groundstrokes and sometimes losing his focus to play with composure.
If anything, the loss will give him more rest and greater purpose to come back strong at the World Tour Finals. It might mean he’s ready to win the WTF, especially if Murray is drained and Djokovic's not playing with his usual legendary prowess.
One thing's for sure. When Wawrinka wears ugly fashions or colors, he wins huge titles. Yep, he's on his way to win at London.
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Winner: Paris Decides the WTF Lineup
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Quick intermission with a relevant tangent from this weeks results from the Paris Masters. The World Tour Finals has eight participants set to compete at London next week:
- Andy Murray
- Novak Djokovic
- Stan Wawrinka
- Milos Raonic
- Kei Nishikori
- Gael Monfils
- Marin Cilic
- Dominic Thiem
But while the field is interesting and competitive, it lacks the luster of years past because icons Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will not be competing due to injuries. Add an out-of-form Djokovic, a coasting Wawrinka and a few players who have hardly played their best tennis in recent weeks, including Thiem, Monfils and Nishikori.
Raonic might not even compete, due to a torn right quad.
The only players who are in peak form are Murray and Cilic. The Scot is the new No. 1 and will no doubt play with enthusiasm, even if fatigued, for his partisan supporters.
But there could be some drama if Djokovic and Murray face off in the final to see who is the year-end No. 1. It’s still the WTF, and all tennis fans will look on with interest.
Stay tuned later this week for more player previews.
Loser: Milos Raonic
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Once again Milos Raonic was hampered with an injury in a big match. At Melbourne, he lost to Andy Murray in the semifinals no thanks to an adductor injury. And it’s been a continuous theme for the last few years just after he shows the kind of promise that got him to the Wimbledon final in July.
At the China Open last month, Raonic was forced out because of an ankle injury. Then at Paris last week, he scored a nice win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to get to the semifinals, but he subsequently pulled out of that match against Andy Murray because of a tear in his right quad.
It could also jeopardize his chance to compete at the World Tour Finals next week.
"I'm on the borderline for that," Raonic said to the AP (via Tennis.com). "I still have a possibility that I might be able to play."
Winner: John Isner
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Big John Isner can still sling those serves. The 31-year-old American reclaimed his country’s top status by defeating compatriot Jack Sock who had briefly held the position as top-ranked American. He climbed eight rankings slots to No. 19. Best of all, he defeated Marin Cilic in the semifinals—a player who had owned Isner in all six of their previous matches.
It’s a measure of revenge for Isner who lost to Cilic in Davis Cup competition in mid-July.
Isner made it to a Masters 1000 final for the third time in his career (lost to Roger Federer at 2012 Indian Wells and lost to Rafael Nadal at 2013 Cincinnati Open), but he was unable to win the third set against new No. 1 Andy Murray.
Another consolation for Isner, and for those tennis fans who love aces, Isner’s big week allowed him to overtake Ivo Karlovic for the most aces of 2016, according to ATP World Tour. Karlovic finished with 1,131 aces, and Isner pounded out 1,159 by match point of his loss to Murray. It is the fourth time Isner finished as the ace king, and he halted Karlovic’s attempt to win this dubious distinction three years in a row and for a sixth career time.
Loser: Novak Djokovic
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Invasion of the Body Snatchers is an old science-fiction movie classic in which alien plant spores fall from space and grow into clones of targeted humans. The spores can only do this when a person falls asleep, and they then become replacement humans with all the memories and physical features of the original. Except, the pod clones lack the emotion and full-fledged ability to be human.
It’s as good as any explanation to explain the significant fall of Novak Djokovic since reaching his absolute peak in early June with the French Open title. He’s been a shell of himself—injured, admittedly dealing with personal problems and experiencing a lack of motivation.
This is not King Novak but an imposter.
It’s not that Djokovic has suddenly declined the way Nadal did with his physical ailments and lack of confidence two years ago. He still handled Grigor Dimitrov, a talented but underachieving player, and it’s not like losing to hot Marin Cilic is the real cause for alarm.
But the aura of invincibility is gone because he would have chewed up Cilic, Murray or whoever blocked his path in 2015 or early 2016. Now he's lost his No. 1 ranking streak of 122 consecutive weeks—the fourth-best mark of the Open era.
Suppose we rate the level of Djokovic’s play. He might be at about a 4-5 level (scale of 0-10), perhaps more like some of the burnout he showed in 2012 or autumn 2011. It might be more like Djokovic 2009, a strong No. 3 player but one who got fatigued with gluten in his diet, an apt comparison to how he looks in late 2016 as he tries to rebound from his slump.
But Djokovic will be back; count on it. He might embrace the challenge to knock off Murray at London’s World Tour Finals to win the year-end No. 1 for the fifth time in six years. Or maybe he rolls out another epic 2017. He’s been a comeback champion before, and he’s got some great tennis left.
Winner: Andy Murray
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The drama was sucked out of the race for No. 1, at least for now. Once Cilic polished off Djokovic in the Paris quarterfinals, it was all up to Murray to defeat Tomas Berdych and Raonic. Down went Berdych, but Raonic was unable to perform due to an injury. Murray walked into the No. 1 ranking without having to complete a showdown, but that’s beside the point.
For starters, Murray had to earn this ranking over one full year, and 11,185 ranking points (with the World Tour Finals to come) is worthy, even if it’s far behind Djokovic’s 16,950 points following his French Open title in early June.
Murray and Djokovic are at different respective levels, so the showdown was a bust, more like ships passing in the night than a gunfight at high noon. Murray might be at a 9 to 9.5 level (on a scale of 0-10) in how he ranks against himself in playing the best tennis of his career. If he had won the U.S. Open and Cincinnati, he could score a perfect 10 for his post-French Open run. Djokovic might be at about that 4-5 level we discussed earlier in the article.
So give Murray his due. He capped off the No. 1 ranking by winning the Paris Masters title for the first time in his career. He comes to London’s World Tour Finals as the solid favorite for the first time in his career.
It might be more accurate to say it took Murray 10 years to track down No. 1. Finally the other Big Three collectively broke down, and Murray was there to be the best player in tennis.
Well done.
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