College Football Week 10 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Separation Saturday didn't disappoint on the field. Unbeatens fell, playoff favorites held on and madness ensued.
For the third straight week, though, the predictions were lackluster. An 8-9 finish dropped the season record to 71-76-3. A total of 24 teams in the AP Top 25 are in action during Week 10, so we're aiming for a bounce-back slate.
Four ranked programs play a midweek game, and each of those contests is featured. Then, five of Saturday's best matchups are highlighted before a final slide rounds out the remainder of the week.
Please remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only.
No. 17 Western Michigan vs. Ball State
1 of 10
When: Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Line: Western Michigan (-17.5)
Western Michigan is 8-0, and a major part is that P.J. Fleck's team has dominated on the road in 2016.
After defeating a pair of Big Ten teams, the Broncos obliterated Central Michigan by 39 points and hammered Akron by 41. Ball State is next to feel the energetic wrath of Fleck and Co.
In two home games against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents, the Cardinals are 0-2 against the spread.
The Pick: Western Michigan (-17.5)
No. 12 Oklahoma vs. Iowa State
2 of 10
When: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Oklahoma (-21)
Conference games on the road can be a problem. Look no further than Week 9 and the lovely chaos that ensued.
Oklahoma should survive a Thursday night tilt at Iowa State. To this point, however, the team's two worst per-play defensive performances were on the road. Conversely, the Cyclones' three best per-play offensive outputs were at home, and they went 3-0 ATS.
The Sooners will record their sixth straight victory, but the margin of victory will be fewer than three touchdowns.
The Pick: Iowa State (+21)
UCLA vs. No. 21 Colorado
3 of 10
When: Thursday, 9 p.m. ET (Fox Sports 1)
The Line: Colorado (-11.5)
According to Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times, UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen does not appear close to returning. As long as he's out, the Bruins' slide will continue.
Meanwhile, Colorado is 8-0 against the spread. No other program in the country has a perfect ATS mark.
Thanks to a formidable interior, the Buffs shouldn't need to devote extra attention to stopping the nation's worst rushing offense. UCLA will be forced to throw, and that's much easier said than done against cornerback Chidobe Awuzie and an underrated secondary.
The Pick: Colorado (-11.5)
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San Jose State vs. No. 24 Boise State
4 of 10
When: Friday, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Line: Boise State (-28.5)
Boise State lost control of the New Year's Six bid, but it's still in decent position. The Broncos are still the second-highest-ranked "Group of Five" team, only trailing Western Michigan.
And this is an excellent chance for a bounce-back game.
San Jose State is 1-3 against the spread on the road, falling by at least 34 points in each of the three losses. A motivated Boise State will record its second Friday night blowout this season.
The Pick: Boise State (-28.5)
No. 8 Wisconsin vs. Northwestern
5 of 10
When: Saturday, noon ET (ABC)
The Line: Wisconsin (-6.5)
Wisconsin is no stranger to tight finishes. Six of the Badgers' eight games in 2016 have included one-score margins of victory.
If the September edition of Northwestern somehow wanders into Ryan Field, Wisconsin is going to win an aesthetically painful contest. If the October version shows up, though, it'll be No. 7.
Both defenses are stout against the run, which should result in a quickly played, low-scoring outing. The Badgers have the edge, but they'll need to hold off a late-game drive from Northwestern.
The Pick: Northwestern (+6.5)
No. 14 Florida vs. Arkansas
6 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Line: Florida (-3.5)
Since Luke Del Rio's return from injury, Florida has doubled up the spread in two straight weeks. Will it be three?
Although we haven't seen Del Rio in a true road game, Arkansas is inconsistent. Now, if the offensive line can handle the Gators pass rush, the Razorbacks might sneak out a home win. But only 15 teams allowed more sacks (14) during October.
Florida's defense will propel the team to an important road win, allowing the Gators to take control of the SEC East Division.
The Pick: Florida (-3.5)
No. 22 Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
7 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN2)
The Line: Kansas State (-2.5)
Perhaps a bit of a surprise, Kansas State is favored against an Oklahoma State team that ended West Virginia's undefeated year.
But, again, conference road game. Things can get weird.
While we're sticking with Mason Rudolph and the more-explosive offense, Vegas typically makes you look silly calling any result a sure thing—even when there's only pride on the line.
The Pick: Oklahoma State (+2.5)
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 15 LSU
8 of 10
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Line: Alabama (-7)
LSU has played like a different team since the school dismissed Les Miles and Cam Cameron. Saturday is the ultimate test.
In previous seasons, the Tigers lacked creativity on offense. They tried to slam Leonard Fournette up the middle and—big shocker here—failed miserably against the Alabama defense. It's unlikely the offense will be anywhere near as bland.
But a more diverse attack doesn't automatically equate to success. Although Danny Etling has been a decent distributor, the Purdue transfer hasn't showed he's a game-changing quarterback.
In all likelihood, that's what the Tigers need. And it's something they're probably not going to get.
The Pick: Alabama (-7)
No. 9 Nebraska vs. No. 6 Ohio State
9 of 10
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Line: Ohio State (-17)
If Ohio State performs up to its potential, a blowout is realistic. But we haven't seen the Buckeyes at their best since September.
After annihilating Rutgers, Ohio State has gone 0-4 against the spread. Nebraska, on the other hand, is 3-0 ATS on the road this season—most recently losing to Wisconsin in overtime.
Though a resurgence from the elite version of the Buckeyes is likely inbound, it won't happen for another week.
The Pick: Nebraska (+17)
Other Top 25 Games
10 of 10
No. 5 Louisville (-25) vs. Boston College
When: Saturday, noon ET (ESPN2)
Pressure disrupts timing. Virginia spent the afternoon hassling Lamar Jackson, and Louisville needed a last-minute drive from the Heisman Trophy front-runner to avoid an upset. Boston College is capable of doing the same, but the difference is the Eagles don't have the offense to complement it. Once they need to start throwing, Louisville will start running away on the scoreboard.
The Pick: Louisville (-25)
No. 7 Texas A&M (-14) vs. Mississippi State
When: Saturday, noon ET (SEC Network)
Texas A&M struggled on the road earlier this season, but Mississippi State doesn't have a defense like South Carolina's. This one might get ugly early. Over the last three games, the Aggies have missed beating the spread by a combined three points. They'll shake the trend with a three-score win.
The Pick: Texas A&M (-14)
Vanderbilt vs. No. 11 Auburn (-24.5)
When: Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)
Auburn has started to control the line of scrimmage, averaging the nation's second-most rushing and total yards nationally during October. That's a problem for Vanderbilt. Unless the Commodores can contain running back Kamryn Pettway and Co., the blowout will begin quickly. Auburn's secondary is mediocre, but Vandy has managed more than 200 passing yards just once this season.
The Pick: Auburn (-24.5)
Georgia Tech vs. No. 18 North Carolina (-10.5)
When: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
North Carolina's run defense was consistently poor early in the season. Lately, the Tar Heels haven't allowed much of anything on the ground. Georgia Tech's triple-option attack will balance out the recent hot stretch and key a close finish, but North Carolina will be too explosive offensively for the Yellow Jackets to upend.
The Pick: Georgia Tech (+10.5)
Maryland vs. No. 2 Michigan (-30)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Although Michigan is ranked 15th nationally against the run, the unit is susceptible to surrendering a couple of big plays. If Ty Johnson can hit the edge, the Wolverines might not stop him. Michigan "regularly" allows a gain like that, but "regularly" means once or twice per outing. Maryland's run defense, on the other hand, has allowed 786 over the last two road games.
The Pick: Michigan (-30)
Syracuse vs. No. 3 Clemson (-26)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN2)
Fresh off a victory over Florida State, Clemson returns home to host an intriguing Syracuse squad. The Orange stunned Virginia Tech, pulled off a minor upset at Boston College and will have had two weeks to prepare for the Tigers. Clemson will recover from a slow start, but Syracuse will score late to clip the spread.
The Pick: Syracuse (+26)
No. 23 Virginia Tech (-11.5) vs. Duke
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Madness in the ACC Coastal Division is a yearly tradition. Virginia Tech is dangerously close to avoiding such chaos. The Hokies powered through a formidable Pitt defense on the road last week, and Duke is a step backward in competition. During three ACC games in October, the Blue Devils allowed 496.7 yards per game. Virginia Tech will cruise to another important conference win.
The Pick: Virginia Tech (-11.5)
TCU vs. No. 13 Baylor (-9)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Full disclosure: We are 0-6 against the spread when picking Baylor games this season despite trying everything. Trends, gut feelings, going against the gut—none of it has proved correct. The Bears have earned two straight ATS victories at home. Plus, in addition to TCU's 1-7 ATS record this season, the offense is a complete disaster. Don't let us down, trends.
The Pick: Baylor (-9)
Arizona vs. No. 25 Washington State (-16)
When: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)
Washington State is matching pace with rival Washington in the Pac-12 North Division race, but it's not always pretty. At home this season, the Cougs are 1-4 against the spread as the favorite. The difference in the outcome will be Arizona's lackluster secondary, but Wazzu will stumble through the win.
The Pick: Arizona (+16)
Kansas vs. No. 14 West Virginia (-34.5)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Poor Kansas. In four road games this season, the Jayhawks have lost by an average of 41.8 points and no fewer than 36. West Virginia will be focused on rebounding from a dismal showing at Oklahoma State, and the Mountaineers won't meet much resistance.
The Pick: West Virginia (-34.5)
No. 19 Florida State (-6) vs. North Carolina State
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
North Carolina State is a thorn in Florida State's side. However, in each of the last three matchups, the Seminoles eventually pulled away for a two-plus-possession victory. Expect more of the same before Dalvin Cook and the FSU offensive line control the fourth quarter.
The Pick: Florida State (-6)
Iowa vs. No. 20 Penn State (-7)
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Penn State is on a roll. After upsetting Ohio State, the Nittany Lions obliterated Purdue in the second half. But a stingy Iowa run defense will complicate Penn State's push for a fifth consecutive victory. Though the Nittany Lions will eventually secure the win, the Hawkeyes will improve to 3-1 ATS on the road.
The Pick: Iowa (+7)
No. 4 Washington (-15.5) vs. Cal
When: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Cal can't stop anyone from scoring. In home games, though, the Golden Bears do plenty of celebrating. They're averaging 43.3 points this season, while Washington has surrendered its three highest point totals on the road. The Pac-12 won't fall victim to madness in Week 10, but Cal will be a challenge for Washington's top secondary.
The Pick: Cal (+15.5)
All odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All recruiting information via Scout. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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