Projecting 1 Impact Offseason Move All 30 MLB Teams Will Make This Winter
One way or another, the 2016 MLB season will be over by Wednesday night.
Then comes the dark time, between the end of the World Series and the start of the offseason excitement that comes with the winter meetings in December.
Plenty will change between now and then, with rumors and speculation swirling around this year's crop of free agents and trade chips.
What follows is an attempt to nail down what the biggest move of the upcoming offseason will be for all 30 MLB teams.
That could mean a major free-agent signing, a blockbuster trade acquisition, a major trade chip being moved for prospects or even a lucrative extension for an in-house player.
The goal here was to project what one move, once the dust settles and spring training arrives, will be the most impactful for each club.
And off we go.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
Projected Move: Extend 2B Jean Segura
Another offseason filled with splashy signings (Zack Greinke) and blockbuster trades (Shelby Miller) probably isn't in the cards for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Instead, they'll hope a return to form from that pitching duo and a return to health from A.J. Pollock and David Peralta can make for a reversal of fortunes.
Adding a bullpen arm or two and some depth to the starting rotation figures to be the focus, though they will likely stick to the second- and third-tier guys.
With that in mind, the big move of the offseason could be locking up one of their own, as second baseman Jean Segura looks like a good candidate for an extension.
The 26-year-old benefited greatly from a change of scenery after coming over last offseason from the Milwaukee Brewers, hitting .319/.368/.499 with an NL-high 203 hits, 41 doubles, 20 home runs and 33 stolen bases for a 5.7 WAR.
He'll be arbitration-eligible for the second time this year, and is projected for a healthy raise from $2.6 million to $7.3 million. Buying out his final two years of arbitration and a free-agent season or two seems like a good way to reward his terrific season.
Atlanta Braves
2 of 30
Projected Move: Acquire C Brian McCann
One way or another, the Atlanta Braves figure to add a veteran catcher to the mix this offseason.
There are plenty of options on the free-agent market, with Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, Nick Hundley, Kurt Suzuki and Jarrod Saltalamacchia all fitting the bill at different price points.
However, a reunion with Brian McCann still seems like a very real possibility.
The emergence of Gary Sanchez has made McCann expendable, and the New York Yankees will be motivated to move what they can of the $34 million he's owed over the next two seasons.
He may not be the same impact slugger he was during his first go-around in Atlanta, but he's still plenty productive for the catcher position, posting a .242/.335/.413 line with 13 doubles, 20 home runs and 58 RBI.
More than anything, it's his ability to handle a staff that makes him an attractive target for the rebuilding Braves and their young crop of pitchers.
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 30
Projected Move: Trade RP Zach Britton
Despite back-to-back 50-save seasons, the Baltimore Orioles traded Jim Johnson prior to the 2014 season when his salary ballooned from $6.5 million to $10 million in arbitration.
Could they do the same with AL Cy Young candidate Zach Britton this winter?
Britton is aware that it's at least a possibility he gets shopped.
"You saw it with Jim Johnson, once the salary got up to a certain point, he got traded. I think I’m kind of approaching there. So I don’t know how long I’m going to be here," Britton told Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com. "You see how many relievers are on the move nowadays. But it’d be nice to stay here."
Britton is projected to earn $11.4 million in arbitration next season, up from $6.75 million this past year.
The Orioles desperately need help in the starting rotation, and have a pair of in-house options capable of stepping into the closer's role in Brad Brach and Darren O'Day.
Moving Britton would be a tough call, but it might be the right one to make at this point for the franchise.
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Boston Red Sox
4 of 30
Projected Move: Sign DH Edwin Encarnacion
The Boston Red Sox will be tasked with replacing David Ortiz this offseason, and they're losing more than just a big personality in the clubhouse and a fan favorite on the field.
Big Papi posted a .315/.401/.620 line that included 48 doubles, 38 home runs and 127 RBI in his farewell season, taking home the Hank Aaron Award in the American League for his efforts.
Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball reported in June that both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista view the Red Sox as a potential landing spot in free agency this winter.
Few sluggers have been as productive as Encarnacion in recent seasons.
Since the start of 2012, he ranks second in the majors in home runs (193) and RBI (546) and he's had no shortage of success at Fenway Park over the years with an .886 OPS, 26 home runs and 85 RBI in 108 games.
There's no replacing a franchise icon like Ortiz, but signing Encarnacion would go a long way in offsetting his lost production.
Chicago Cubs
5 of 30
Projected Move: Extend SP Jake Arrieta
Expect the Chicago Cubs to make every effort to re-sign Aroldis Chapman, or one of the other impact relievers on the free-agent market if he opts to take his talents elsewhere.
However, the big move of the offseason could come in the form of a massive extension for Jake Arrieta.
The 2015 NL Cy Young winner wasn't quite as dominant in 2016, but he was still a front-line option for much of the year, finishing 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 190 strikeouts in 197.1 innings.
His salary shot up to $10.6 million last offseason and he's projected to earn $16.8 million in his final year of arbitration this winter, before reaching free agency for the first time.
Convincing the Scott Boras client to forgo the free-agency process in favor of an extension now won't be easy, but with few other pressing needs on the roster and much of the core still pre-arbitration, the Cubs have the money to pull it off.
Buster Olney of ESPN didn't sound optimistic about the team's chances of re-signing Arrieta in May.
"Arrieta will probably get higher offers from other teams, and unless Arrieta fudges at least a little on his pronouncement that he won't give the Cubs a discount, he almost certainly will be pitching elsewhere in 2018—which is absolutely his right," Olney wrote.
He went on to reference the seven-year, $175 million extension signed by Stephen Strasburg as perhaps the ceiling on what the Cubs will offer.
Will that be enough to convince Arrieta to stay? Here's betting it is, or the Cubs are willing to loosen the purse strings a bit more.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
Projected Move: Trade SP Jose Quintana
Finding the right trade package for ace Chris Sale won't be easy, so there's a good chance he's making his fifth career Opening Day start for the Chicago White Sox when the 2017 season gets underway.
The question then becomes, will the White Sox opt to slap a few Band-Aids on the roster in an effort to contend once again, or will they look to move some other pieces of interest?
Jose Quintana would certainly interest more than a few teams if he were made available. In a non-existent free-agent market for starting pitching, he may never hold more value than he will this winter.
The 27-year-old put together the best season of his career in 2016, going 13-12 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 181 strikeouts in 208 innings, the fourth straight season he's topped the 200-inning mark.
That steady performance, coupled with an incredibly team-friendly contract, makes him an extremely valuable trade chip.
Quintana is owed a very reasonable $21.25 million over the next three years, with a pair of $10.5 million team options for 2019 and 2020.
That comes to a $42.25 million commitment for five years of a legitimate No. 2 starter in the prime of his career.
It would take a major prospect haul for the White Sox to pull the trigger, but it's a move the organization could spin as too good to pass up as opposed to a sign of an impending rebuild.
Cincinnati Reds
7 of 30
Projected Move: Trade SS Zack Cozart
The Cincinnati Reds are not far enough along in the rebuilding process to start spending big in free agency, and it's unlikely they'll be moving veterans Joey Votto or Brandon Phillips this winter given their respective contract situations.
That likely leaves a potential deal of shortstop Zack Cozart as their biggest move.
The Reds nearly traded Cozart to the Seattle Mariners ahead of the July deadline, and the two sides are expected to rekindle talks this offseason, according to Bob Dutton of the News Tribune.
The 31-year-old was hitting .266/.317/.462 with 23 doubles and 15 home runs at the time of the trade deadline, but slumped to .198/.274/.281 with just six extra-base hits from Aug. 1 on, before missing the final few weeks of the season with a right knee injury.
That leaves him projected to earn a very reasonable $4.7 million in his final year of arbitration, and as long as he can stay healthy, he should have no problem providing value at that price.
Whether it is in fact a deal with the Mariners, or another team comes calling, clearing a path for Jose Peraza and landing a prospect or two in the process looks like the best move for the Reds.
Cleveland Indians
8 of 30
Projected Move: Re-sign 1B Mike Napoli
Count manager Terry Francona among those who would like to see Mike Napoli back in a Cleveland Indians uniform next season.
"Man, he’s been a blessing to us," Francona told reporters. "This guy is what you want. He shows up to win. When he doesn’t win, he’s (expletive)...He has affected everybody in the clubhouse, and myself. It’s been pretty special."
Napoli turned out to be one of the best bargains of the offseason on a one-year, $7 million deal.
The 35-year-old went on to hit .239/.335/.465 with 22 doubles, 34 home runs and 101 RBI, giving the Indians the right-handed power bat they've been lacking since the days of Manny Ramirez.
Given his age and limited contributions outside of his run-production skills, the Indians would likely prefer not to go beyond two years with a new deal.
However, in a somewhat crowded market for right-handed sluggers and first basemen, Napoli may not find the widespread interest one might expect given his 2016 performance.
At the end of the day, a reunion with the AL champions could wind up being his best option.
Colorado Rockies
9 of 30
Projected Move: Sign RP Brad Ziegler
With general manager Jeff Bridich entering the final year of his contract and the starting rotation providing some reason for optimism in the second half, the Colorado Rockies might be looking to buy this winter.
There's still a chance that one of Charlie Blackmon or Carlos Gonzalez could be traded this offseason, but let's explore the idea of the Rockies holding onto all of their current pieces and instead looking to add.
Last offseason, the big signing was outfielder Gerardo Parra, while the team also looked to shore up the bullpen by adding Jake McGee, Jason Motte and Chad Qualls.
Parra wound up being perhaps the worst signing of the winter, while the bullpen was still an absolute mess with a 4.91 ERA and 37 saves in 65 chances.
Convincing one of the top-tier closers to come to Colorado will be essentially impossible, but a secondary option like Brad Ziegler could be a fit.
The 37-year-old sidewinder has plenty of experience closing, including 52 saves over the past two seasons, and his ground-ball abilities make him a good fit in Coors Field.
Among pitchers with at least 40 innings of work in 2016, Ziegler ranked seventh with a 63.3 percent ground-ball rate, according to FanGraphs.
Plenty of teams will be courting him as a setup man, but the Rockies could emerge as his preferred destination if he's set on closing.
Detroit Tigers
10 of 30
Projected Move: Trade RF J.D. Martinez
Buster Olney of ESPN reported earlier this month that the Detroit Tigers will be looking to shed payroll in the offseason, and will listen to offers for everyone on the roster as a result.
It's fun to speculate about potential deals centered around Miguel Cabrera or Justin Verlander, but in all likelihood those two are not going anywhere.
Instead, the most likely trade chip might be right fielder J.D. Martinez.
Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reported that the team is unlikely to pursue an extension with the slugger, and he's entering his final season of team control.
Martinez has hit .299/.357/.540 with 83 home runs since joining the Tigers in 2014, despite averaging only 499 at-bats during that span.
A bumper crop of top-tier outfield options on the free-agent market could make the trade market for Martinez slow to develop, but once the dominoes start to fall in free agency he could be an attractive fallback option for teams who miss on signing their top target.
Houston Astros
11 of 30
Projected Move: Sign CF Jon Jay
The Houston Astros will need to decide whether to re-sign Jason Castro or target someone else to platoon at catcher with slugger Evan Gattis.
However, the biggest decision will be who plays center field, with Carlos Gomez released in August and Colby Rasmus headed for free agency.
George Springer is locked in at one corner spot and it looks like either Alex Bregman or Yulieski Gurriel will transition to left field, but there's no clear in-house option to man center.
Prospect Teoscar Hernandez could get a look and defensive standout Jake Marisnick is also an option, but a free-agent addition at the position seems likely.
Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond are the top options on the market, but both are expected to command big bucks this time around after settling for one-year deals last winter.
That could make a second-tier option like Jon Jay a more likely target.
Jay quietly put together a very solid season for the San Diego Padres, hitting .291/.339/.389 with 26 doubles and 49 runs scored over 374 plate appearances before missing significant time with a broken forearm.
If the price on Fowler and Desmond climbs too high, look for the team to quickly turn their attention to the 31-year-old former Cardinal.
Kansas City Royals
12 of 30
Projected Move: Trade RP Wade Davis
The Kansas City Royals are already fielding trade interest in closer Wade Davis, according to Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball.
With Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon all set to hit the open market, teams looking to add a front-line relief option will have no shortage of options this winter.
However, unlike those three who will all command significant money and multiple years, Davis is a short-term addition with a $10 million option for 2017 before reaching free agency next winter.
That doesn't add to his value any from the Royals end of things, but it could make for a wider market of teams vying for his services.
Davis does come with some injury concerns after making two trips to the disabled list this past season with forearm problems, but when healthy he's been one of the best in the business.
Since making the full-time move to the bullpen in 2014, he's pitched to a 1.18 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 in 185 appearances.
With the Royals looking to cut payroll and in serious need of an infusion of prospect talent, Davis looks like as good a bet as anyone to be traded this offseason.
Los Angeles Angels
13 of 30
Projected Move: Sign OF Dexter Fowler
The Los Angeles Angels have more than a few areas of need to address, but finding a more conventional leadoff hitter and upgrading left field would seem to top the list.
Yunel Escobar spent the bulk of 2016 hitting out of the leadoff spot for lack of a better option, but he's better suited hitting out of the No. 2 spot or down in the order.
Meanwhile, left fielders hit a combined .204/.271/.303 with 11 home runs and 59 RBI, by far the worst production in the majors at the position.
With Jered Weaver ($20.2 million) and C.J. Wilson ($20.5 million) both coming off the books, the team will have some money to spend, and Dexter Fowler should be their top target.
Fowler is the best leadoff option on the market. After posting a .276/.393/.447 line, he looks like the perfect table-setter for Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and the rest of the Angels lineup.
He's spent the bulk of his career playing center field, but could easily slide over to left to join Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun in what would be one of the more productive outfields in baseball.
Los Angeles Dodgers
14 of 30
Projected Move: Acquire LF Ryan Braun
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a budding star in Corey Seager and an RBI machine in Adrian Gonzalez, but they are somewhat lacking in overall power.
They finished 17th in the majors with 189 home runs as a team, as Yasmani Grandal and Justin Turner tied for the team lead with 27 each.
Re-signing Turner, along with pitchers Kenley Jansen and Rich Hill, will be the main focus once free agency officially begins.
However, they could turn their attention to adding a right-handed power bat once that's addressed.
Ryan Braun will be the popular rumor after the team nearly acquired him from the Milwaukee Brewers at the August waiver deadline, and Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball acknowledged that the two teams could re-open talks this winter.
The $76 million Braun is owed over the next four years won't be a sticking point for the deep-pocketed Dodgers, and his .305/.365/.538 line and 30 home runs would look awfully good slotted between Seager and Gonzalez in the middle of the lineup.
Miami Marlins
15 of 30
Projected Move: Trade CF Marcell Ozuna
The Miami Marlins' current projected starting rotation features Adam Conley, Wei-Yin Chen, Tom Koehler and a whole bunch of question marks.
However, financial restrictions will likely keep them from pursuing top free agents Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson and Ivan Nova, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, who wrote the following:
"It would take a flabbergasting return, something the Marlins do not realistically envision, to consider trading (Giancarlo) Stanton, (Christian) Yelich or (J.T.) Realmuto.
The Marlins ideally would prefer not to trade second baseman Dee Gordon or outfielder Marcell Ozuna but would at least listen on offers for both. Ozuna has greater value than his expected salary, so it would take high-end pitching for Miami to part with him.
"
Jackson goes on to note that it could be tough to get any real value out of moving Gordon, considering he served an 80-game PED suspension last season and has $45.7 million coming his way over the next four years.
That leaves Ozuna as the most likely MLB piece to be flipped to upgrade the rotation.
The 25-year-old enjoyed a breakout season in 2016, hitting .266/.321/.452 with 23 doubles, 23 home runs and 76 RBI to earn a spot on the NL All-Star team.
It remains to be seen who the Marlins might target on the trade market, but if Ozuna does get dealt, it would be the biggest move of the offseason in Miami.
Milwaukee Brewers
16 of 30
Projected Move: Trade LF Ryan Braun
We've already touched on Braun as the big projected addition for the Los Angeles Dodgers, so let's look at things from the Milwaukee Brewers side.
Here's what Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote on Sept. 14 in regard to the proposed August deal with the Dodgers that came up short:
"Braun and Puig were about 20 minutes from being traded for one another two weeks ago, according to several executives with direct knowledge of their trade talks, but the teams ran out of time at the Aug. 31 trade deadline. ...
Braun was being traded to the Dodgers, who would pay the entire $76 million in his contract, for outfielder Yasiel Puig, injured veteran pitcher Brandon McCarthy and prospects.
Negotiations lasted all the way to the 11:59 p.m. ET waivers trade deadline on Aug. 31. Officials vowed to revisit the talks again this winter. ...
The deal was so close, with just one last prospect being negotiated, that Braun was advised to stay around until the deadline expired. Several of his teammates even stayed with him in the clubhouse, prepared to say their goodbyes.
"
McCarthy could turn into a valuable trade chip himself if he turns in a healthy first half. However, he could also be a financial drain if he's not, with $23 million left on his contract over the next two years.
Then of course there's Puig, who still has all the talent in the world and could benefit from a change of scenery, but also comes with plenty of baggage.
Just how good the prospect return would be is tough to peg, but one would assume the Brewers would be looking for at least one top-tier youngster to add to an already stacked farm system.
Minnesota Twins
17 of 30
Projected Move: Trade SP Ervin Santana
The Minnesota Twins balked at the idea of moving Ervin Santana over the summer, with Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball tweeting that the team would "need to be overwhelmed" to consider trading him.
There might just be a team willing to overwhelm them this winter.
The 33-year-old Santana quietly put together a terrific season on a bad Twins team, going 7-11 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 149 strikeouts in 181.1 innings for a 3.8 WAR.
He's had an ERA of 4.00 or lower in six of the past seven seasons, and he's been durable throughout his career with 30 or more starts in six of seven seasons as well, the lone outlier being 2015 when he served a PED suspension.
Santana is owed $27 million over the next two seasons, with a $14 million option for 2019, which is well below his current market value.
It's simply a matter of whether a team is willing to part with a couple quality prospects for a middle-of-the-rotation innings eater.
New York Mets
18 of 30
Projected Move: Sign 1B/OF Mark Trumbo
The New York Mets will make every effort to bring back slugger Yoenis Cespedes on a new, long-term deal, but if he winds up signing elsewhere the team will need to have a backup plan.
A disappointing sophomore season from Michael Conforto and injury concerns surrounding Lucas Duda and David Wright left the team relying heavily on Cespedes to shoulder the offensive load once again, and losing him would be a big blow to the lineup.
While Mark Trumbo may not carry the same defensive value, or really any defensive value, he'd be more than capable of picking up the slack in the middle of the lineup.
The 30-year-old put together a monster contract year in Baltimore, leading the majors with 47 home runs and pacing the team with 108 RBI.
He'll be extended a qualifying offer from the Orioles so it will cost more than just a hefty salary to land his services, but that's a price worth paying to keep the Mets offense from slipping into its previously anemic state once again.
New York Yankees
19 of 30
Projected Move: Sign LF Yoenis Cespedes
The opportunity to add some much-needed pop and a healthy dose of star power in the form of Yoenis Cespedes could be too good for the New York Yankees to pass up this offseason.
Five players tallied 20 or more home runs for the Yankees this season, but the since departed Carlos Beltran led the way with just 22.
Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez will be asked to step into important run-production roles in the middle of the lineup, and adding a known commodity like Cespedes would go a long way in taking pressure off of them.
With a current projected starting outfield of Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and Judge, the Yankees would first need to find a taker for Gardner or Ellsbury on the trade market to open up a starting spot.
Payroll room shouldn't be an issue, with Mark Teixeira coming off the books and the team already operating below its normal spending limits.
The Yankees' retooling efforts have given them arguably the best farm system in all of baseball, but they're never going to go into a full-blown rebuild.
With expectations to contend once again in 2017, signing Cespedes could be the move that pushes them over the top.
Oakland Athletics
20 of 30
Projected Move: Sign SP Brett Anderson
The Oakland Athletics know a thing or two about bargain shopping.
Recent success stories like Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir, Drew Pomeranz and Bartolo Colon headline what they've been able to do on the pitching market, though things don't always work out, as last winter's signing of Henderson Alvarez proves.
So who will be the next bargain-bin addition to the starting rotation?
Let's focus in on a familiar face in left-hander Brett Anderson.
The 28-year-old debuted with Oakland in 2009 and spent the first five seasons of his career pitching for the A's, before being traded to the Colorado Rockies.
Injuries have always been the big issue with Anderson, who has topped 100 innings just three times in his eight-year career, and just once since 2010.
That came in 2015, when he parlayed 180.1 innings of 3.69 ERA baseball into a qualifying offer, which he accepted.
The injury bug bit again this past season, though, as he managed just 11.1 innings of work.
Another one-year deal with plenty of incentives makes him the perfect target for the A's, who could flip him at the deadline if he proves healthy.
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30
Projected Move: Trade SP Vincent Velasquez
The thought of a rebuilding team trading a 24-year-old starting pitcher with front-line upside may sound crazy on the surface, but with the value of controllable arms expected to be at an all-time high it's at least worth testing the market.
And that's exactly what the Philadlephia Phillies figure to do with right-hander Vincent Velasquez.
There was some talk of a potential deal that would send Velasquez to the Texas Rangers leading up to the trade deadline, according to Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly, but the two sides were unable to come to an agreement.
That being said, trading Velasquez is something the Phillies could revisit this offseason, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.
In his first full season in the majors, Velasquez went 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 152 strikeouts in 131 innings of work over 24 starts. That included a brilliant three-hit shutout against the Padres in April in which he struck out 16 batters.
It would take MLB-ready talent to pry Velasquez away from the Phillies, but that's a price teams may be willing to pay.
I speculated a package from the Texas Rangers built around Jurickson Profar could pique the Phillies interest in another article earlier this month.
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
Projected Move: Re-sign SP Ivan Nova
Ivan Nova prior to being traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
- 21/15 G/GS, 7-6, 4.90 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 97.1 IP
Ivan Nova following his trade to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
- 11 GS, 5-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 0.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 64.2 IP
It's fair to say the 29-year-old came out of the other end of that deal a different pitcher, and it couldn't have come at a better time as he now hits the free-agent market as one of the top three starters available.
J.A. Happ took a similar path a year ago, posting mediocre numbers with the Seattle Mariners before thriving down the stretch in Pittsburgh and turning that into a three-year, $36 million deal from the Toronto Blue Jays.
He wound up going 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA in his first season in Toronto, as the Pirates no doubt regret not making more of an effort to re-sign him.
Looking to avoid making the same mistake with Nova, the Pirates began negotiations with Nova before the regular season ended, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Brink reported an asking price of five years and $70 million from Nova's camp. If the two sides can settle on something like $60 million over five years for a $12 million annual value, the Pirates might be able to keep him around.
San Diego Padres
23 of 30
Projected Move: Sign SP Charlie Morton
The San Diego Padres have rolled the dice on injury fliers in the past, most notably Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow in recent seasons.
Charlie Morton could be next.
The 32-year-old was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies last winter, where he went 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in four starts to open the year before suffering a torn left hamstring that required season-ending surgery.
He's had his fair share of injury issues in recent years, but he's capable of being a viable middle-of-the-rotation arm if healthy, as he showed in 2014 when he posted a 3.72 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 157.1 innings of work.
The Phillies have a $9.5 million mutual option on Morton for next season, but they will likely exercise their $1 million buyout instead.
A one-year deal with a base salary of a couple million and an opportunity to earn that $9.5 million figure through incentives seems like a reasonable expectation of his asking price.
The Padres could certainly use help in the rotation, with Luis Perdomo, Christian Friedrich and a hopefully healthy Tyson Ross currently ranking as the top options.
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
Projected Move: Sign RP Mark Melancon
A massive bullpen overhaul is coming for the San Francisco Giants.
Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez are all free agents and all unlikely to be back, leaving the young duo of Derek Law and Hunter Strickland and deadline-addition Will Smith as the top returning relief arms.
Expect at least a few free-agent relievers to be signed as a result, one of which figures to be a proven closer.
Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen are both strong candidates to be re-signed by their current clubs, and the Giants might not have the prospects to put together a good enough package to land Wade Davis, so at this point Mark Melancon would appear to be their No. 1 target.
Melancon may not have the high-octane stuff like Chapman or Jansen, but he's been every bit as effective nailing down saves.
Here's a look at how the three stack up since the start of the 2013 season, when Melancon first took over as closer in Pittsburgh:
- Chapman: 143/156 SV, 91.7 SV%, 1.93 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 15.8 K/9
- Jansen: 155/172 SV, 90.1 SV%, 2.19 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 13.6 K/9
- Melancon: 147/162 SV, 90.1 SV%, 1.80 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 8.3 K/9
Shelling out the money to add Melancon as the anchor of a new-look relief corps would shore up the Giants' biggest weakness.
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30
Projected Move: Sign CF Rajai Davis
The Seattle Mariners used eight different leadoff hitters last season, none of which were consistent table-setters ahead of the slugging trio of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager.
Nori Aoki saw the bulk of the action in the top spot, hitting .283/.349/.388 with 63 runs scored and seven stolen bases, but also earning a late-season demotion to the minors.
Meanwhile, center field turned into a weak spot offensively in the second half.
Leonys Martin looked like one of the biggest steals of the offseason when he posted an .822 OPS with nine home runs, 20 RBI and eight stolen bases in 167 plate appearances over the first two months of the season.
However, he slumped to a .630 OPS with six home runs and 27 RBI in 409 plate appearances from June 1 through the end of the season.
Adding veteran Rajai Davis to the mix would give the team a dynamic speed threat who could be penciled into the leadoff spot in the lineup or, if nothing else, a platoon partner for the left-handed hitting Martin in center field.
Davis brought good value to the Indians on a one-year, $5.5 million deal in 2016, hitting .249/.306/.388 with 23 doubles, 12 home runs and an AL-high 43 stolen bases.
That should earn him a modest raise, but at 36 years old it won't take more than two years to sign him, so it's a fairly low-risk move.
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
Projected Move: Extend SP Carlos Martinez
The St. Louis Cardinals have a big decision to make with regard to a potential qualifying offer for Brandon Moss, and re-upping with Moss in some capacity is still a possibility now that Matt Holliday is on his way out the door.
The team is also expected to pursue an upgrade in center field, with a focus on improving defensively.
However, an extension for ace Carlos Martinez would be the biggest move of their offseason, regardless of who's added to the roster.
With Adam Wainwright getting on in years, Michael Wacha struggling to stay healthy and Lance Lynn on the mend from Tommy John surgery, Martinez has become the most important member of the pitching staff.
After starting his career in the bullpen, he made the full-time move to the rotation in 2015, and he's gone 30-16 with a 3.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 358 strikeouts in 375 innings over the past two seasons.
The 25-year-old will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, with a projected salary of $5.3 million, and that figure is only going to climb in the years to come.
The Cardinals have a lengthy history of extending their homegrown players long before they reach free agency, with Kolteon Wong the most recent example.
Buying out Martinez's arbitration years and a free-agent season or two seems like a good investment for a Cardinals team in a transition period of sorts.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
Projected Move: Trade SP Drew Smyly
The Tampa Bay Rays shipped out one controllable arm already when they sent Matt Moore to the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline, and another exodus from the starting rotation could be coming this winter.
Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly are the two pitchers most likely to be shopped in the offseason, and both represent attractive options on the barren starting pitching market.
Odorizzi has more trade value, but Smyly is likely the preferred trade chip for Tampa.
The left-hander has one less year of team control remaining and a projected arbitration figure ($6.9 million) quite a bit higher than that of Odorizzi ($4.6 million).
Smyly was 7-12 with a 4.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 167 strikeouts in 175.1 innings, though a 4.49 FIP this year and a 3.11 ERA over 66.2 innings of work in 2015 paints a slightly better picture of what to expect going forward.
The Rays will be looking for at least one MLB-ready piece in order to trade Smyly, as we saw with Matt Duffy being acquired in the Moore deal, and that's a price some team may be willing to pay.
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
Projected Move: Sign SP Jeremy Hellickson
Adding a quality No. 3 starter to slot behind Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish and ahead of Martin Perez and A.J. Griffin is the clear No. 1 item on the Texas Rangers' offseason to-do list.
Despite their wheeling and dealing at the trade deadline, they still have a relatively deep farm system, so upgrading the rotation on the trade market is certainly a possibility.
However, the answer could be one of the few quality free-agent arms available in right-hander Jeremy Hellickson.
Hellickson, 29, put together a very strong season with the Philadelphia Phillies, going 12-10 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 154 strikeouts in 189 innings of work.
That was his best showing since winning AL Rookie of the Year honors with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2011, and makes him a lock to be extended a qualifying offer.
Arlington is not a friendly place for pitchers, and Hellickson is not exactly a ground-ball specialist with a 40.7 percent rate in 2016.
If the Rangers are unable to swing a trade, though, he may wind up being their best option.
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
Projected Move: Re-sign RF Jose Bautista
The Toronto Blue Jays will be looking for a starting pitcher to replace innings eater R.A. Dickey, a bullpen arm or two and perhaps a power bat if they don't feel Rowdy Tellez will be ready in the near future.
However, the biggest decision of the offseason will be what to do with Jose Bautista.
The 36-year-old is a fan favorite and the face of the franchise, but he's also clearly on the decline at this point in his career and comes with significant injury concerns.
It was reported in February that Bautista would be seeking a five-year, $150 million deal in free agency, according to TSN's Rick Westhead, which he's not going to get.
However, Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball reported in July that the Blue Jays would be interested in something similar to the three-year, $75 million deal that Yoenis Cespedes signed last offseason.
That's still a steep price for a player who played just 116 games last season and would be 39 at the end of that contract.
Unless someone comes in with a huge offer for Bautista approaching his original asking price, expect him to re-up with the Blue Jays and end his career in Toronto.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
Projected Move: Acquire RP Wade Davis
If Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen re-sign with their respective clubs and Mark Melancon lands in San Francisco, as we're predicting here, that would leave the Washington Nationals as perhaps the most prominent team searching for a top-tier closer.
A reunion with Drew Storen is a possibility if they can mend that bridge, while veterans Joaquin Benoit, Brad Ziegler and Sergio Romo all have ample experience in the ninth inning.
However, for a team still looking to contend for a title, the trade market may be the preferred route.
Wade Davis is the big name expected to be on the move and the Nationals have the prospect talent to get a deal done.
Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Victor Robles would be off the table, considering Davis is just a one-year rental, but a package built around right-hander Erick Fedde could get it done.
Fedde currently checks in at No. 75 among MLB.com's top 100 prospects, and he shouldn't need too much more time in the minors after reaching Double-A in 2016.
That gives the Nationals their bullpen ace as they gear up for another run at the NL East title and postseason success.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Projected salaries courtesy of MLBTradeRumors. Contract information via Spotrac unless otherwise noted.
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