Bowl Predictions 2016: Playoff Projections Heading into Week 10
It took until late October, but the Penn State Nittany Lions finally gave us the upset we needed to shake up the playoff picture
Recent weeks had left us with a fairly straightforward playoff race and very little drama, but with the Ohio State Buckeyes going down things have become slightly more complicated.
Week 9 will once again feature a number of matchups that could shake up the picture and further complicate the playoff projections. Heading into Saturday's games, here's a look at the most likely scenarios for the New Year's Six bowl games, followed by a breakdown of a few of the most interesting conference races.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| Rose Bowl | Ohio State vs. Utah | OSU |
| Cotton Bowl | Boise State vs. Wisconsin | WISC |
| Orange Bowl | Louisville vs. Tennessee | LOU |
| Sugar Bowl | Texas A&M vs. Baylor | TA&M |
| Peach Bowl/CFP Semifinal | Alabama vs. Clemson | BAMA |
| Fiesta Bowl/CFP Semifinal | Michigan vs. Washington | WASH |
Conference Scenarios
Big Ten
The Big Ten is likely to send its champion to the College Football Playoff for the third consecutive year, so the most hotly contested conference race has significant playoff implications down the stretch.
The Penn State Nittany Lions' upset of the Ohio State Buckeyes last week threw a wrench into the Big Ten race—but maybe not as big a wrench as you would expect.
The Michigan Wolverines are the lone undefeated team in the Big Ten East division, making them the favorites for right now. The Wolverines are the only team in the East that controls its own destiny. But Ohio State and Penn State, each with one conference loss, are still in the mix.
Ohio State can almost lay claim to controlling its own destiny—it simply needs Michigan to continue to win up until its matchup in the regular-season finale.
If Michigan and Ohio State end up tied, then obviously the head-to-head meeting is all that matters. And if Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State end up tied, according to the Big Ten tiebreakers the team with the worst record would be eliminated (two-loss Penn State), meaning the head-to-head matchup between Michigan and Ohio State would also solve the three-way tie.
The only scenario in which the Buckeyes don't control their own destiny is if Michigan loses to a team other than Ohio State. That would potentially set up a scenario in which Ohio State and Penn State run the table and finish in a tie, earning the Nittany Lions the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Pac-12
The Washington Huskies remain undefeated and will almost certainly represent the Pac-12 in the playoffs if they run the table.
For the past few weeks it has appeared as though only the Huskies had a shot at the playoffs from the Pac-12, but the Utah Utes may be creeping into the picture.
Utah is 7-1 and hosts Washington on Saturday in arguably the biggest matchup of the weekend.
If the Utes knock off the Huskies in convincing fashion and win out to wrap up the Pac-12, it's possible that a one-loss Utah team could sneak into the playoffs over a one or two-loss champion from another conference.
But it all hinges on this weekend's matchup. Utah is the only one-loss Pac-12 team and therefore the only other viable playoff contender.
SEC
The Alabama Crimson Tide are so heavily favored to run the table and win the SEC that it almost feels like a waste of time to discuss the scenarios. But in terms of which teams control their own destiny, the SEC is actually a wide-open race.
As the only undefeated team in the SEC, Alabama obviously can win out and wrap up the conference. But there are multiple scenarios in which the Crimson Tide don't even win the SEC West.
LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M each have just one conference loss and reside in the SEC West with Alabama, creating a potential logjam if Alabama were to lose a game.
Among the other contenders, the school with the most simplistic road to an SEC title (at least in terms of numbers of games that have to go their way) is Auburn. If the Tigers run the table and LSU beats Texas A&M, Auburn will win the SEC West.
Of course that scenario still requires an upset of Alabama, but at least there is the possibility of drama in the SEC down the stretch.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
