College Football Odds Week 9: Picks for Top 25 Matchups Based on Vegas Lines
If Week 8 taught us anything heading into Week 9, it's that winning on the road against quality competition is tough—even for the nation's top teams.
The Ohio State Buckeyes rolled into Happy Valley to take on Penn State as the No. 2 team in the nation and took their first loss of the season, leaving little margin for error in their hunt for a national championship.
More than one Top 10 team will face a similar challenge in Week 9. Washington, Nebraska and Clemson are all teams ranked in the Top 10 that will attempt to earn a quality win over a ranked team on the road.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Here's a look at the latest rankings and a complete look at the Top 25 schedule for the weekend with predictions for each game against the latest spread from Odds Shark.
| Thursday | 7 p.m. | No. 25 Virginia Tech | Pittsburgh | Va. Tech (-4.5) | Pitt |
| Friday | 7 p.m. | No. 22 Navy | South Florida | USF (-7.5) | USF |
| Saturday | 12 p.m. | No. 10 West Virginia | Oklahoma State | WVU (-3.5) | WVU |
| Saturday | 12 p.m. | No. 2 Michigan | Michigan State | Mich. (-23.5) | MSU |
| Saturday | 12 p.m. | No. 24 Penn State | Purdue | PSU (-11.5) | PSU |
| Saturday | 12 p.m. | No. 5 Louisville | Virginia | L'VILLE (-31.5) | Louisville |
| Saturday | 3:30 p.m. | Northwestern | No. 6 Ohio State | OSU (-27) | OSU |
| Saturday | 3:30 p.m. | No. 4 Washington | No. 17 Utah | Wash. (-10) | Utah |
| Saturday | 3:30 p.m. | No. 8 Baylor | Texas | Bay. (-3.5) | Baylor |
| Saturday | 3:30 p.m. | No. 14 Florida | Georgia | UF (-7.5) | UF |
| Saturday | 7 p.m. | No. 13 Boise State | Wyoming | Boise (-13.5) | BSU |
| Saturday | 7 p.m. | Kansas | No. 16 Oklahoma | Okla (-40) | KU |
| Saturday | 7 p.m. | No. 7 Nebraska | No. 11 Wisconsin | Wisc. (-7.5) | Wisconsin |
| Saturday | 7:15 p.m. | No. 15 Auburn | Ole Miss | Auburn (-4.5) | Auburn |
| Saturday | 7:15 p.m. | No. 18 Tennessee | South Carolina | Tenn. (-13.5) | Tennessee |
| Saturday | 7:30 p.m. | New Mexico State | No. 9 Texas A&M | A&M (-43.5) | A&M |
| Saturday | 8 p.m. | No. 3 Clemson | No. 12 Florida State | Clem. (-4.5) | Clemson |
Who Will Survive Their Road Test?
Washington at Utah
As it stands, the Washington Huskies are the Pac-12's only shot at fielding a College Football Playoff team this year. The Utah Utes might be one of the few teams on the schedule that can upset the purple-and-gold apple cart.
The Utes are the only team remaining on the Huskies schedule that is in the Top 25 and one of just three road games left.
Utah appears to be peaking at the right time to challenge Washington as well. It is coming off back-to-back games in which it survived its own road tests against Oregon State and UCLA.
In both games, they were led by running back Joe Williams, who—in case you somehow haven't heard yet—briefly retired before coming back and tearing up the last two weeks. This Bleacher Report video encapsulated his impact since returning to the team:
Finding that success against a Huskies defense that is 35th in the nation in yards allowed per carry (3.7) will be more difficult, but not impossible.
The real matchup to watch in this game is Washington quarterback Jake Browning against a Utah secondary that's excelled at turning quarterbacks over. Browning has just two interceptions on the season, but Utah has 14 interceptions to its credit.
Ultimately, the Huskies' run defense and Browning are probably good enough to neutralize what the Utes do well, but that's not enough to blow them out. This one should be a slugfest that the line doesn't indicate.
Prediction: Washington 28, Utah 21
Nebraska at Wisconsin
The 2015 season brought us the "undefeated Iowa" meme. The Nebraska Cornhuskers are on the precipice of achieving the same anomaly status.
The 7-0 Huskers somehow find themselves as a Top 10 team despite their only win over a ranked opponent coming against a clearly overrated Oregon team, 35-32.
The schedule will give them a chance to prove themselves, though. And it starts with a road trip to Camp Randall to take on Wisconsin. The oddsmakers in Vegas aren't exactly sold on Nebraska, either. It enters the game as 7.5-point underdogs to the 5-2 Badgers.
Looking at where the team ranks across the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders, it's not hard to see why:
| 21 | F/+ | 9 |
| 34 | S&P+ OFF | 65 |
| 22 | S&P+ DEF | 5 |
| 40 | FEI OFF | 39 |
| 24 | FEI DEF | 2 |
Even based on matchups, this isn't a good look for Nebraska. Step one to stopping the Badgers offense is slowing down the run game. That's something head coach Mike Riley's team just isn't that great at doing. The Huskers are a middling 62nd at stopping the run, giving up 4.17 yards per carry to the teams on their schedule.
Wisconsin's Corey Clement is second in the conference in rushing at 102.8 yards per game. If the Huskers can't contain him, they'll have a hard time keeping the Badgers from the end zone.
Despite the two losses, Wisconsin has actually played better than Nebraska this season. Wisconsin's two losses have come by a touchdown to the two most talented teams in the conference in Ohio State and Michigan.
To say that Nebraska is going to keep the game within a touchdown is to put the Huskers on the same level of Ohio State and Michigan. At this point, that's just not true.
Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Nebraska 10
Clemson at Florida State
Of all the national title contenders, Clemson has the most difficult test of all.
In their first game back since beating the NC State Wolfpack at home in overtime, the Tigers travel to Tallahassee to take on the Seminoles.
The narrative this season is that the Tigers simply aren't as good as they were last season when they challenged Alabama for the national title. However, head coach Dabo Swinney is tired of hearing that story.
"Our offense is better than we were last year despite what y'all write," Swinney said, per Dan Wolken of USA Today.
That statement might not pass the smell test, but it isn't far off. As David Hale of ESPN.com noted, the Tigers' 2016 offensive numbers aren't as far off from last season as one might think, especially from the end of the season last year:
While Clemson might not be as sharp as it was last season, Florida State isn't, either. The Noles' last two home games were a two-point loss to North Carolina and a 17-6 win over Wake Forest. That's not exactly enough to strike fear into the hearts of Tigers fans.
Clemson has been labeled as a bit of a disappointment because it hasn't rolled teams on a weekly basis, but a lot of that is the product of sky-high expectations after last season. The fact is that Clemson still ranks third in F/+, has comparable numbers to last season and already has a win over a Louisville team that blew out this FSU team.
Coming off a bye week, this could be the game Clemson reminds fans that it's still a legitimate playoff contender.
Prediction: Clemson 38, Florida State 24
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
